Punting for Profits

Kempton

2007-03-27T22:59:00.000Z

Im looking through a few of the races in Kempton tomorrow.

2.20 Novice Hurdle

The first race looks good for a bet. Benetwood and Enlightenment are the two likely winners, however i believe the odds should be reversed. Benetwood beats Enlightenment hands down on the formlines (My turn now and Karello Bay). Plus the fact that AP McCoy is 2 from 2 on board and also Fontwell where horse has won twice is quite similiar to Kempton. At 3/1 I will be having a 2.5 point win bet. The only problem that i can foresee is the going conditions, however i see both horses having the same problem. I looked at dam and sire for Benetwood and it would souggest hat an easier surface is perferable but there was 1 win on good and a few places. Looking at the other semi contenders in the race , they all seem to have going question marks.

Tip: 2.5 point win Benetwood

Nothing really stands out on the 2 handicap chases. The first looks like Be Telling is still on the up and could win this one easy . however odds too short to nail this one as a certainty.

The second chase looks very competitive. all have a chance so no bet here.. the other races are minefields so will avoid.

Wednesday

2007-03-20T23:06:00.000Z

two bets tomorrow in the 2.40 in Chepstow .
back Time for you
lay Travello

Quiet Times

2007-03-20T13:50:00.000Z

No Bets the past few days and none today either.

Hangover bet

2007-03-18T15:21:00.001Z

Very hungover today. Pretty disgusted in how the six nations panned out yesterday. I can't blame Ireland for running the ball at the end of the game. We needed as many points as possible and were unlucky to give away the try.

I also found out today, too drunk to remember yesterday but the TV judge at the French game was Irish and he gave the try even though there was no way he could see the ball was grounded. Maybe if the judge wasn't Irish he wouldn't have given it. .basically i'm saying , he gave the try so as to keep his job and not look biased.

Other than that, a great day was had yesterday. Meet up with friends I hadnt seen in ages and celebrated paddys day in style! ended up in casino though when i couldnt get a taxi and proceeded to throw away money.. note to self: Never go to casino drunk

One bet for today, well two, both in same race..

Fontwell 4.30
Lay Strolling Vagabond
Back Notanotherdonkey

now time to win back my losses from casino on some on line poker

Hangover bet

2007-03-18T15:21:00.000Z

Great Finish to the Festival!!

2007-03-16T17:52:00.000Z

Well what can i say.. A brilliant finish to a really enjoyable weeks racing. First of all the results from today

2pts each way Katchit - 1st matched 7.4 betfair win, 2.98 place = +15.5 pts
1pt each way Flight Leader = - 2 pts
3 points win Kauto Star - 2.6 on Betfair = +4.5 points

In total +18 points today

Over the 4 days festival, we have banked a very respectable +34.1 points

If only all days were like this. I am first to admit, i did an unreal amount of form analysis to achieve this figure, touching on 7 hours each evening after a full days normal work.

And as a bonus today if anyone followed my tip for Fakenham, you would have gained an extra 2 points to SP. Luckily i took the early price on both selections, back and lay and returned 3 points profit extra today.

I would also like to thank my good friends at www.infactah.com (Irish Group Blog of the year) and Ray at http://thesportstrader.lastminuteliving.com/ for giving my site a mention during the week and to all the new readers who gave my blog a visit.

I will be updating the blog as usual with backs and lay selections and if one thing i have learned from this week is that you get your reward from putting in the hard work. Maybe that was something lacking since i started the blog. Hopefully I can keep it up.

Happy Paddys day to all and lets hope Ireland do the business tomorrow in the rugby to cap off a great week!

Cheltenham Day 4

2007-03-16T01:06:00.000Z

Another tough day to predict. I will only be betting in three races. I do not have time for lenghty post so here are my three main bets

2. 00 Katchit 2 points each way
Great battler and loves the course. Will be in the frame.

2.35 1 point each way Flight Leader

3.15 3 points win Kauto Star

the last three races are a minefield. i spent 2 hours on the grand annual and cant come up with a selection. Favourites have a good record here and with nicholls and walsh in form, the saint saire looks ok, but he is only 4/1.

Another bet i will be placing is laying William John in the 5.30 in Fakenham and backing Doctor David in the same race. looks like easy money here.

Results Day 3

2007-03-16T01:04:00.000Z

I Broke even today. It was a pity one of the bigger priced horses didnt come first to reward us. If i had just stuck to a 1 point level stakes strategy i would haveturned a profit, bit thats the way things go. I was very disappointed with my max bet. McCoy doesnt seen to be having the best of festivals.

Cheltenham Day 3

2007-03-15T00:22:00.000Z

Each day is getting harder in my opinion. Im going to be very wary today. I have some big priced selections and no real banker so i will be betting to minimum stakes.

2.00 JEWSON NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

I'm first to admit I'm not good at selecting winners in big field handicap chases. However I have narrowed down my short list to the following

New Little Brick

Bob Hall

Vic Venturi

New little brick is in great form but im discounting due to top weight. If race is run at a quick pace like all the chase races have this week, he mighnt have enough in the tank to close out the finish.

Vic Venturi could go close and Philip Fentons bumper horse ran a great 4^th place yesterday so maybe a sign of good things. Still a few questions marks though but if there is an irish winner it might be this horse.

I am siding with Bob Hall. I see McCoy has chosen King Revo instead of this one. Im not too worried about that. King Revo is unproven at the distance while Bob Hall won comprehensively on the stiff track of Leicster under the capable hands of Noel Fehily who again takes the reigns today. He is bottom weight which will also help. I have also noticed the previous winners of this race had already won at the distance and had won or placed on a stiff track previously at the distance so Bob Hall fits the bill.

Tip: ½ point Each Way Bob Hall (16/1)

2.35 RYANAIR CHASE (REGISTERED AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY) GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)

This race is a head wreck of a challenge. I actually came up with good reasons to discount all of these horses which doest argue well. Usually when this happens it’s a sign of a big priced winner! However after much thought I have narrowed it down to either Monets Garden or Taranis. Taranis’s form line is franked by his third to gold cup hopeful Exotic Dancer and also ahs won around the course. But I'm discounting him for his questionable jumping ability. You don’t want to be backing a horse in this race who has a blemished jumping record. Cheltenham has the stiffest fences in England there or there abouts. When you clatter them , they will slow you down.

Monets Garden’ s record at Cheltenham reads 0-3. Not a good statistic. He has all the ability and is a great jumper. Also I have found out that he is a bad traveller and this was a cause of a number of his bad races. They have rectified this by making the trip to the cours e on the day of the races and this was tried last time out where he demolished the opposition at Ascot. This bit of info and the fact that he finished a close second to My Way De Solzen in the Arkle last year means he will possibly get it all right tomorrow and reward his connections with the elusive chetlenham win.

Tip: 1.5 pt win Monet Gardens (11/4)

3.15 LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE

Only a small interest in this race for me. I think Black Jack Ketchum will return to his bets and win. However nothing is sure and with his odds so skinny at 2/1 I’m going to side with Blazing Bailey. Its an Alan king trained horse, it’s a course and distance winner, its progressive .This is quite a tough race so I will be playing to minimum stakes

Tip: ½ point each way Blazing Bailey (8/1)

4.00 RACING POST PLATE (HANDICAP CHASE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Ok, this could be my biggest mistake of the week but I’m nailing my colours to the mast here. 5 of the past 7 winners have been French bred. French trained horses excel at intermediate distances (2m 4f). T Doumen has a 33% strike rate in England with chase horses. He leaves his horses well short in prep races and aims for the big ones. A lot of respected pundits have been talking this horse up. Therefore any remaining value is gone. It’s a JP McManus owned horse and McCoy has gotten down to his lowest weight this year to ride this horse. This has all the signs of a coup.

Tips: 2 points win Moncadou (8/1)

4.40 137TH YEAR OF THE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (AMATEUR RIDERS' NOVICES' CHASE) (CLASS 2)

This is a bit of a lottery and im going to play minimum stakes here again. Jonjo O Neill has a good record in these races. Also JT MacNamara knows how to ride this course. I am still taking a chance on Garde Champetre in this race as he is unproven at the distance and in fact has only raced once over 3 miles. He’s dropping in class and if he can handle the distance then im sure he can win.

Tip: ½ point each way Garde Champetre (20/1)

5.20 PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

Another tough race to crack. The winning profile states

Respect:
Irish-trained
Ran in the Warwick and Leopardstown Qualifier
Trained by Jonjo O'Neill
First six in the betting
Last-time-out winners

Oppose:
Five-year-olds
Ran in the Chepstow, Newbury or Haydock Qualifier

Therefore Im going for another outsider, Adamant Approach. Willie Mullins trained horse won the Leopardstown trial and is in good heart. He is also maturing nicely and the step up to three miles seems to suit. He has a very capable apprentice jockey aboard who has a 7 lbs claiming allowance which could make all the difference. His last two runs at Cheltenham have resulted in two placed efforts. Willie’s stable are in great heart so this horse is likely to run a very good race.

Tip: 1 point each way Adamant Approach (16/1)

Thats it for day three. Best of luck to all who invest!

Results Day 2

2007-03-15T00:13:00.000Z

Day two was always going to be hard. Below are the bets i placed and my results.

2.00 Silverburn 1 point win - 9/2 4th - 1 pt
2.35 Denman 2 1/2 points win - 6/5 1st + 3.1 pts
3.15 Well Chief 2 1/2 points win - Evs Fell - 2 1/2 pts
4.00 Copsale Lad 1 point win - 6/1 UP - 1 pt
4.40 no bet
5.20 Cork All Star 1 point each way in paddy powers after much deliberation (reason i took it was they paid out 4 places for a place - 6/1 1st + 7. 5 pts

Total for day + 6.1 points

Cheltenham Day 2

2007-03-14T00:41:00.000Z

I’m not too hot about day 2 of Cheltenham. The first three races look like the favourites will win and the last three races look more like a lottery. Aslo time constraints mean I don’t have time to go through the last three races in as much detail as I would like.

2.00 BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE BARING BINGHAM NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

This first race is a puzzle. The winner will come from the first 7 in the market, but it is so hard to judge which one will come out on top.

Here is the profile of past winners

Respect:
Contested a pattern race last time out
Irish-trained

Oppose:
Non five and six-year-olds
Failed to finish first or second last time out
Outside the first six in the betting

The one horse who I fancy because he loves a stiff track is Catch me, but this goes against the profile of past winners, and O Grady is not in great form. Also form lines suggests that he will not cope(De Valira in Tuesdays opener.)

Duc De Regniere im disregarding due to hendersons poor return in hurdles and also due to his banker losing yesterday.. stable not in great form

Scot Irish likes the going and the trainer is in great form, but we have very little to go on here. Maybe an each way chance.

Aran Concert isn’t sold to me. Noel Meade has said he is the best horse he had maybe ever trained, but haven’t we heard this before! He is however bred for this distance and is a good jumper. He is stepping up in class and at such short odds is worth taking on.

Good cases can be made for the following and if Aran Concerto fails to deliver than the winner wil come from the following three, Silverburn, Tidal Bay, My Turn Now.

Preference is for Silverburn who is a full brother to Denman and is very good value at 5/1. He has good form lines from his only blemish in his career and expect him to tackle the hill with gusto. For each way backers back then don’t look any further than Tidal Bay. This horse is even great value for a win bet. I am only separating this horse from Silver burn from both their form lines to Wichita Lineman as Silverburn came second to him on his hurdling debut and didn’t settle properly that day. Still 12/1 for a course and distance winner is perfect odds for the each way backers.

Tip: Silverburn to win

Or Tidal Wave for Each way backers

2.35 ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

One word to say here.

Denman

Maybe if Cailin Alainn hadn’t fallen last time out in Cheltenham where it was running well and reports hadn’t come out that he was pretty stiff after fall then she would have been a viable alternative. However Denman looks unbeatable here. The odds are brutal but worth a max bet here. Turko, off his low weight may prove a good each way bet for Nicholls second runner in this race.

Tip : 2 points Denman to Win

3.15 SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £176,762.00

Another three horse race here between Well Chief, New Mill and Voy Por Ustedes.

Im ruling Voy Pur Ustedes out as Arkle winners have not won the Champion Chase since 1973 as six year olds. However a high percentage have placed for anyone who wants to avail of the place market on Betfair.

I really want to see Newmill win but my head says that he may be outclassed by Well Chief. I think it really is this simple. Well chief who was only at 90%(on purpose after a 21 month lay off) when winning easily last time out will now be running at 100% and also coming from a stable bang in form. Only issue here is the ‘bounceability factor. (I heard of this such factor today for the first time in relation to racing, although I have heard Johnny Giles mention it a few times lately!) Will Well Chief return to the track after his first run out in 21 months in the right frame of mind.

Tip 2 ½ points on Well chief to win

4.00 CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Brief one here. I will have a small ½ point bet each way on Copsdale Lad. He has been running over fences and is very lightly raced this season. He was tried back over hurdles last time out and took advantage of his lowly handicap mark. He is again well treated for this race and is worth a bet. Henderson is due a coup and this could be it.

4.40 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)

This is a lottery and I’m having no bet here. I wont even try to advise.

5.20 WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

Another Lottery here. I probably wont bet in this race unless I get some good inside info on these, but the favourite does look pretty strong here, Cork All Star. Good breeding for speed, has already won in Cheltenham and with three good wins under its belt already.

In all fairness anything could win so thread carefully.best of luck if you are having a bet.

JPR

Great days profit

2007-03-13T17:48:00.000Z

Here were my results today

2.00 1 point Amaretto rose - 3rd 5/2 - 1 pt
2.35 2 points My Way De Solzen 1st 4/1 on betfair +8 pts
1 point dont Push it Fell - 1pt
3.15 Brave Inca 11/2 2nd - 1 pt
Lay Detroit City + 1 pt
4.00 Rambling Minister - 8/1 UP -2 pts
4.40 2 points Heads on the Ground 1st 4/1 on betfair +8 points
5.20 Silver Jarro 12/1 UP -2pts

+10 points profit today

Cheltenham Day 1

2007-03-12T22:29:00.000Z

Well its taking its time coming amid premature fears of abandonment at one stage, but finally the waiting is over and the Olympics of the National Hunt Season is here. We now know the going for the opening day is officially soft on the old course(Good to Soft in places) and soft (Heavy in places) on the cross country course. Nows its time to analyse the first days races with the ground conditions in mind.

2.00 ANGLO IRISH BANK SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £68,424.00

This race is not as clear cut as everyone thinks. Amaretto Rose is the clear favourite in this race. It is clearly a progressive type and has notched an impressive grade two event under its belt this year at Haydock. She can handle the going and distance and didnt come off the bridle in that event. One minor negative for me is the trainers and jockeys record in hurldes at the course. Even though last year i did back one of hendersons charges to win at 20/1 in the handicap hurdle on the last day (Green Hope).

The two main irish challengers are De Valira and Hide the evidence. Im ruling De Valira out because of the going . he needs it a bit faster. Hide the evidence is very interesting and is definitely great value at 8/1 on the exchanges. A grade 1 winner in Ireland and has all the conditions to suit. A respected friend said the following

' Why 'Hide The Evidence' will win.

Way back in November the best novice hurdler I had seen was Clopf. He went
to the Royal Bond and was destroyed by Hide The Evidence. What was most
impressive in his performance was that he quickened away like only good
horses can. Jessica was very excited and entered him for both the AIG and
Champion Hurdle. That's usually not her style.
She went on about using the AIG as a prep but I think she had grander
ambitions. In the AIG he ran like a novice, jumped well enough but didn't
settle at all and was a spent force by the time they hit the straight. He
wasn't given a hard race once it was clear he couldn't live with the big
boys.
I haven't seen a novice hurdler in Ireland who has that kick. The top
English challenger Amaretto Rose hasn't faced anything yet and hasn't shown
if she has anything off the bridle.
Hide The Evidence is the only novice hurdler I have seen this year with
that special gear !'

Granite jack has a great trainer and jockey but he is taking a major step up in class so im going to rule him out, also wont be suited by course.
Wins Now will like the conditions but again up in class and track may not suit.

Finally we should look at the profiles which have to be respected for this race going back over the years.

Respect:
Irish-trained horses
Unbeaten novices
Three runs or fewer over hurdles
Mares
The second-favourite

Therefore My tip for this race is Amaretto Rose. The reasons being 1. the mares allowance and mares have won three renewals since 1995 from just 16 runners. 2. It has had three runs over hurdles. However as you can see from the profile above, Hide the evidence has to be respected as well. I just thing that even though my friend doubts that Amaretto Rose has anything off the bridle, i think he will power up the hill. Mick Fitz has also been talking up this ride for a while now. So in my opinion race 1 will go to the English.

2.35 IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

theres only three horses in this race, Fair Along, My Way DeSolzen & Dont Push It that can win it.

Its damn hard to separate the three. On my own ratings I have
Dont Push it - 68
My Way De Solzen - 61
Fair Along - 45

Fair Along scores so low due to trainer and jockeys poor record at the track. But hobbs is after coming out of his poor run of form. I do think that My Way De solzen will beat fair along, but dont push it is an unknown quantity. My way De Solzen was beaten by fair along earlier in season 10 days after running a tough race over fences at Lingfield, so now that he is fresh he can turn the tables around with him. He is a class jumper. Looking at his past form during the week, he absolutely flies over the fences.

So my tip for this race is 2 Points on My Way De Solzen to win with a back up 1 point bet on Dont Push it (Great value by the way) to win.

3.15 SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1

Another cracker of a race here. I have changed my mind three times on a selection for this race.

I am going to stick my neck out and make my banker lay of the festival 'Detroit City'. A cracking horse but i think he is taking too much of a step up in class and his year will come next year. there has only been one 5 yr old winner in 21 years and with him taking on current champion Brave Inca and dual champion hardy eustace, throw in in soft ground lover Straw bear and you have a very competitive race with a horse which has to prove everything.

All week i have been saying i would back Hardy Eustace, but now i think that he will have to battle it out with Brave Inca. there are so close at the moment that the reason i am now picking Brave Inca is 1. in the AIG Brave Inca was not 100% and Colm Murphy's yard were going badly. however they have fired in two inners now in the past 14 days and reason number 2. is value. For horse's so tight to separate, then the 5/1 on offer for him compare to 7/2 for Hardy is value.3. Ruby Walsh on Board. Brave Inca's best run this year was under Ruby Walsh. 4. Hardy Eustace is 10 and maybe just too old.

Tip: Brave Inca to win, Detroit City to lose

For the follwoing three handicap races , i will keep it short and sweet and explain the reasons for my selection.

4.00 WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

1 pt each way -Rambling Minister

Reason, heres the profile for past winners

Respect:
Carrying 10st 11lbs or less
Fancied horses (minus the favourite) starting at up to and including 8/1
Irish and Nicky Henderson-trained contenders

Oppose:
Prominent racers
The favourite

The trainer has had 6 placed at good prices out of 12 runners the last 14 days so he is getting there form wise. Likes stiff tracks (wins at newcastle and Hexham, placed at Cheltenham) won last time out and is currently 8/1(10.5 on the exchanges)

4.00 SPORTING INDEX HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY) (CLASS 2)

2 points win Heads On The Ground

Profile

Respect:
Ran well over the course before
Trained in Ireland
Ran in the P P Hogan Cross Country Chase

Oppose:
Seven or younger
Trained by Paul Nicholls
Never contested a cross-country race anywhere

this between Heads on the ground and spot the difference with preference for the younger and last ime out winner in the thall important race in Puchestown. Last years winer Native jack is out of sorts. Banker bet.

5.20 FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

(Copied from at the races)

The only patterns to have linked both winners to date, Dabiroun and Shamayoun, are (a) both were outsiders, (b) both had raced just three times to get their handicap mark, (c) both were handled by trainers that are a dab hand at getting one ready for a big handicap and, (d) both were useful on the Flat and, indeed, both were bred by the Aga Khan. Sadly, both are also now dead.

Of those points, the one that interests me most is the fact both winners had run exactly three times, the bare minimum number of runs required to qualify for a handicap mark for this contest. If this race is part of a long-term plan, then it makes sense not to show the handicapper your hand than is more than necessary but still enough to get into the race unlike the ante-post favourite for the last two years who missed the declaration cut.

I usually dont bet in this race but i think i have spotted the value bet of the day.

1 point each way on Silver Jarro

meets the criteria abover, trained by one of the craftiest trainers around and ridden by the champion jockey. Usually i dont back horses wearing head gear first time out. However i have noticed already this year that O neill fitted blinkers on a horse called basic fact and he didnt seem to need thema t he time but he won next time outut in a handicap hurdle ata decent price. aS this horse won last time out, there is nothing mentally wrong with the horse so the blinkers must be worn for a reason to bring the horse on more. Usually blinkers first time on a horse means problems. At 14/1 its great value.

Thats it for me me for the first day. Best of luck to all and i will update results tomorrow.

Fill up for Cheltenham

2007-03-11T23:59:00.000Z

Time to increase the coffers for cheltenham on tuesday.

the 4.40 in tauton, Present M'Lord is value at 2/1 or greater. in a terrible race im taking on back in business as his jumping is suspect and the trainer is in a bad run of form. Present me lord looks like he will appreciate the going and distance and is the best jumper in the race. Alner also has a great record with chase races here.

No Lays today. Fields are too small and not worth the risk.

Go ENGLAND!!!

2007-03-11T17:07:00.000Z

Apologies for not posting earlier as i had 3 successful lays , one losing value back and one more lay to go in the last in Market reason - Lusaka Le Pemba.

the reason being i got caught up in the soccer and rugby today.. For the first time in my life i was roaring and shouting on England to win and when they scored the last try I was jumping off the couch!! Being an Irish man, I consistently shout for any team playing England!! Nothing Personal mind as I have many english friends, but anything to shut the English media up and especially that brian moore commentator on the BBC... And to make things better it was an Irish man, young Gerraghty who made all the difference when he came on for England.. He is a player in the mold of Ronan O Gara, who is willing to back himself and try anything, and brought the rest of the back line into play with his superb passing.

This now means that Ireland have to beat Italy by 4 points more than France beat Scotland next week to secure the six nations championship.. What a mouth watering day in prospect next Saturday and it being the St Patricks day to boot, its going to be a cracker of a match and a sesssion!

I hope people listened to the betdaq preview. I listened last night and the one i take out of it for further inspection is saint saire in the grand annual. I am also going to back hardy eustace. they mentioned that this could be a very close finish with the best jumper maybe prevailing in the end. Hardy is the most accomplished jumper next to brave inca. Detroit city has made mistakes in his jumping this year and plus the fact that 5 yr olds have a terrible record in this race, and hardy has beaten brave inca this year in the AIG hurlde in leopardstown, then it is all set up for him to win. I have also read other reviews of cheltenham preview nights down the country where dessie hughes was present and he said that he has never been in better condition and is very hopeful.

I shall be running through the form for every race of the festival here so dont forget to look back here every night starting Monday night.

Betdaq sponsored cheltenham preview night

2007-03-10T16:30:00.000Z

Check out this

http://www.irish-racing.com/cheltenham2007.htm

The Betdaq Cheltenham Preview Night Listen to probably the finest panel lined up throughout the Cheltenham Preview season. The Betdaq Cheltenham Preview Night was recorded at the Marriott Hotel, London on Thurday night, and is now available to download and listen to. The panel members of Ted Walsh, John Francome, Paul Nicholls, Tony McCoy, Russel Wiseman and Matt Williams give their considered opinions on their best hopes for the Cheltenham Festival with Mark Pougatch.

SATURDAY

2007-03-10T15:42:00.000Z

I have two vlaue bets for today, but i dont think i will get the odds i want.

First one is Haut De Game in the 3.55 in Ayr. I m looking for 4/1 as its a tight race and each one of the runners has some claims for winning this. Im a bit worried about the top weight he is carrying so will have to get value here. he performs well in small fields and like the course but the top weight in the muck might mean he could get caught on the run in. ( I think i may have talked myself out of this bet!! - this is why it is good to write down why you want to back a horse!!)

Next one is the 5.20 in chepstow, pass me a dime. Im looking for 15/2 here but unlikey to get it. I may keep an eye on the in running betting to see if i can get value there.

My banker lay of the day is in the 4.55 in chepstow - Petite Margot. As always my criteria has been met. he is up in class and there are three mor ein the betting who are dropping in class and have good decent form.

Friday

2007-03-09T00:00:00.000Z

2 bets for tomorrow.

Ayr 2.00 Zaffran Lady & 4.10 Frankie figg if greater than 9/2.

Lingfiled 4.20 Blythe spirit is a lay for me. up in class and in with better company. two speed horses in the race with decent for plus fisio who is well able to win this as well.

ON A ROLL

2007-03-08T20:36:00.000Z

3 from three the past 2 days. Maybe i could be running into the right type of form with Cheltenham around the corner..... who knows!!

Winner Alright At last

2007-03-08T00:10:00.000Z

it feels like it was a long time coming, but come it did. our back selection won and good value tow and out lay lost at very short odds.

No back bets for thursday, but im going to lay Artic Bear in the 2.55 in Thurles if i an get it under 4/1. This will be a very tough race to win and 7/2 the forecast price is way too short.

Wednesday

2007-03-06T22:32:00.000Z

Well, the lay wasnt matched yesterday so no profit.

One back bet tomorrow in catterick 2.2o Beamish Prince. Great value at 8/1. Trainer hasn't a great strike rate, but is running into some bit of form the past two weeks. The horse is way classier than these horses in this seller and hopefully the return to hurdles where it posted its two wins will bring about the turn in form needed to win. Ground an distance will suit.

One lay tomorrow, Ling 5.05 Rule for Ever. a very competitive race and at 5/2 is under value for this horse stepping up in class and in a race loaded with speedy sorts.

Also congrats to Infactah.com for winning best group blog at the Irish blog awards over the weekend. A thoroughly deserved award for all involved.

hupougherdat

2007-03-06T00:29:00.000Z

I have not disappeared. i had one bet teo weeks ago and it lost, bit i have been keeping an eye out since but nothing definite jumps off the pages. I also tried a bot of trading and made a return of 5% on investment over the weekend so it is doable.

I will be laying starcross Maid in the 4.10 in southwell if the odds come into 4/1. Days off track and looks outclassed so a definite lay if value odds are received. Trainer aint so hot either.

Cheltenham is only 2 weeks away, so I will be doing a full review for that....

Saturday

2007-02-24T02:31:00.000Z

A qucik post today. i'll only be backing one and that is Parrain in the 3.45 novice hurdle in kempton. its a two horse race so get on at 2/1 or better..

Haydock

2007-02-21T23:10:00.000Z

Well Iffy was a bit iffy to say the least. He should have placed but was held up by jockey in 5th, trying to stave of any rise in the weights. Trainer may not be in a good vain of form at the moment.

Haydock 3.10 Ebony light - Perfect conditions today. Trainer in unreal form and very promising jockey on board. good value at 11/4.

Wednesday Value at Ludlow

2007-02-20T22:02:00.000Z

Ludlow 4.00 looks like a very good race and may produce a nice winner in te shape of the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cheltenham entry Iffy. Thankfully he hasnt been tipped up by the racing post so we might get some decent value on this selection. currently reading at 8/1.

This horse ran a creditbale third behind champion hurdle hopeful Afsoun. He is dropping in class and has all conditions to suit. He runs well after break and will be suited by course, with its log run in. The fav looks harshly treated for his easy win in a weak cls 4 maiden .2nd Fav Sunday city looks the biggest danger.Also dropping in class and has conditions to suit. im siding with Iffy as he has the better connections, but it is pretty close.

Good Result

2007-02-18T13:44:00.000Z

Back to winning ways yesterday when Marcel duly obliged at 5/2.
Today i will be dutching South O the border and Helens Wood in the 4.30 in Fontwell. the only other danger in this race is scarlet mix but im ruling this horse out due to its bad run of results on soft ground. if the ground was good or even good to soft , i would back this horse.
I think that Helenswood may win today but i cant separate the two today but then again he only won on Leicster which is a stiff track, where as he came nowhere in Lingfield which is tight like today, but he could be finding his feet now in handicap company.. anyways dutching the two will give a 50% return in investment. South of the border is taking a drop in class in my opinion and is still value at 6/4

Saturday

2007-02-17T14:22:00.000Z

Apologies for lack in posting but i took a mini break from racing over the past 3 days.

Marcel is running in the 4.10 in ascot.
im prefering this horse to misty dancer for 2 reasons. One Marcel is dropping in class and two misty dancer looks like he prefers tighter tracks. Also 3/1 is value

Friday Kempton

2007-02-09T00:43:00.000Z

I had shortlisted 6 races t look at today but only one stands out and that is haunted house in the 3.10.

Sparse

2007-02-07T23:25:00.000Z

Yes, racing has been sparse these last few days. i had a few bets picked out for wed but no joy as bothe NH meets in England called off. I presume taunton will be called off tomorrow as well as they are expecting snow. It s pity as i really fancy River Tigris in the 4.50. This horse ran a blinder last time out in first time blinkers on the same underfoot conditions as forecasted for tomorrow and also the same distance. Also with mccoy getting a second crack of the whip at this horse i thing that 9/2 is great value if you can get it. The main reason im going for this than the favourite is the fact that i think the fav is going up in clas while river tigris is defintely comin into a weaker race and he canbe progresive with the head gear on. As already stated, headgear has been proven to be most effective the second time been worn (as hors eis getting used to the blinded feeling)

Mt other two bets are in Southwell.
1.30 Grange Lili
3.30 Waterside

My main reason for this is the performance of their respective last races. Grange lili won after been obstructed and is gamely battler.. all is good for southwell where a battler can make up that extra half yard on a slower surface. He is very close to getting reeled in my the handicapper but is worth another go. at 5/2 its very near value. trainer has an outstanding record here and that tips the scale in favour of this selection in a small sized field.

Waterside is in brilliant form. Moore has teamed up with Callan today to tackle the extra furlong on the inform gelding. again the shiny price seems value and he will appreciate the extra furlong on this energy sapping fibre sand course.

Monday

2007-02-05T00:45:00.000Z

No racing in ireland on monday. I will have 4 bets in Wolves tomorrow if i can get matched at decent prices. they are wahoo sam, canadian danehill, global traffic, all max bets and dapple dawn as a single bet. Im pretty confident about all 4, but not too happy about the prices i thought i d get on betfair.

Corner turned and new method

2007-02-04T18:09:00.000Z

Today was a decent day for me. i had 5 bets and 4 won. Ok the odds were miserable but i had enough research put in to warrant a very confident days betting ahead of me if i stuck to my guns. My betting pattern consisted of a few max bets and and few singles.

I have spent the past week and weekend putting all my result in a spreadsheet and analysing every one of them. My Irish selections have been going ok for me, but i wont get rich quick with the lack of racing and the small number of suitable races.

Therefore i have developed a method which will narrow down selections for me in England.
I now have a process whereby i have 3 spreadsheets. One is to narrow down the selections for a particular day by using a certain method. This method gives me a list of horses which satisfy the following criteria

1. Horse can handle the going and distance
2. Trainer has a decent record at the course
3. Jockey has a decent record at the course
4. Trainer is in form
5. Horse has realistic chance of being in the frame

The second spreadsheet is where i run the above selections through a set of very professionally put together ratings i subscribe to and which i highly respect and have used for the past number of years. This highlights horses which are totally outclassed or not and provides the next filter.
i then look at the refined list and i look in depth at each selection to ensure the following

1. Is it suited to the course
2. Analyse recent form to see if the horse is really in/out of form or if it is a pattern horse - one who needs exact conditions to win -
3. Again look to see if it will be outclassed or not
4. Look at final indicators, field size, head gear, performance under certain weight, trainer comments, RP comments

the third and final spreadsheet is the final selections list that has passed all the criteria and i have each marked as either a max bet or a single bet. A max bet is 2.5 times the single bet. In monetary terms, that's 20 for a single and 50 for a max.

Im pretty confident that this will be profitable for the national hunt season. so far so good

Quick note

2007-02-03T14:59:00.000Z

Aftertiming a bit today. i backed detroit city earlier to give me 21 euro proift and im placing this on fredy murphys horse, Negus De Beaumont in the 3 pm in Wetherby. looks a progessive horse and track will definitely suit. im annoyed i didnt take this at 7' as its now tradinng at 5's .

quiet

2007-01-30T23:39:00.000Z

No views today..

Leopardstown

2007-01-28T16:44:00.000Z

I spent part of the day in leopardstown. A pretty cold day but made all the better by the fact that i was too fuzzy headed from the night before to drive so i walked over t0 the course( I live pretty near) and on the way a taxi driver stopped and gave me and my friend free tickets to the reserved enclosure. A nice way to start the day.. I thought my luck was in . These were my planned bets for the day

1.50 Schindlers Hunt, Win 1st 8/13
2.20 Macs Flamingo, EW 9/1 4th
2.50 Brave Inca, Win 11/8 2nd
3.25 Kazal, Win 11/4 1st

However i ended up doing this due to ill advice from a respected friend/source of mine.

1.50 Vintage Treasure E/W - 12/1 UP - 40
2.20 Macs Flamingo E/W - 9/1 4th -40
2.50 Brave Inca Win - 11/8 2nd -50
3.25 Kazal Win - 11/4 1st ( i backed at 7/2) +175

I ended the day €35 up.

the whole reason i changed my mind on Schindler's Hunt was the fact that the odds available were 8/11 so i thought id better look for value and when my mate told me he had backed Vintage treasure and backed him ante post for the arkle i said what the heck, lets go with it.

If i had backed Schindlers hunt i would have been 115 up, so a costly mistake on my part.

Anyways a good day out was had. I didn't stay for the last 2 races as the cold was getting to me and i didn't fancy anything. Also the headache from the night before was not dissipating (even after a few cures!)

thursday Gowran

2007-01-24T23:34:00.000Z

The grade 3 hurdle in gowran park looks like a one horse race. The winner will be Celestial Wave. loves the ground and distance, good jockey on board, up and coming trainer who thinks horse is a 'superstar' and who are we to doubt! odds are pretty skinny, but i cannot see this horse beaten. 2 points win on this if i get the better side of evens

The 3.25 novice chase looks exciting. its between the tp three in the market but my vote goes to Toofarback, because ofo the form lines and i think he is dropping in class for this race. 11/4 also looks like good value to me. A two point bet here also .

As for the Thyestes, its very tough this year.Theres a lot of hype around Kitsi and he also has some good form lines but its hard to call.

Thurles Tuesday!

2007-01-23T00:29:00.000Z

Same bets as last week except no our ben this time.

Thurles 1,45. Cleini is favourite as he is the class horse in the race by a long shot. However he has only won on good and never tried at today's distance. Hopefully there will be a few non runners tomorrow as he seems to prefer big field sizes. Pontium is the value bet. 8/1 seems very good value for a horse who is one of the only ones to have won at this distance and also a course winner. I'm going to have a point each way on this one.

Gazza's girl in the 3.15 should outclass the rest so 1 point win here if i can get 2/1. his jumping is suspect though so defo need some value here before i bet.

Saturday in Naas

2007-01-20T13:05:00.000Z

Hi just a quick post. i have two selections today in naas which ireally fancy. As you know naas is one the stiffest tracks in ireland with its 4 furlong uphill finish, there fore im going for horses today who have ither won here or have won on something similiar.

2.15 Chelsea Harbour - I should have backed this last time out in Naas, but didnt and the win that day reprrsents he can handle the course and looks progressive. Basically this is a value each way bet. 10/1.

2.45 Sophist - didnt run at all in last race. this horse has class compare to others in this race. his price is tumbling but i think he has all the conditions in his favour roday. He has won t fairy house which has a three furlong slight uphill run in so hopefully thats a good guide that he has stamina and of course loves the muck. Trainer has small stable and this is one of his stars. Back to win. currently trading at 4.2.

I cashed for the first time at a live poker tournament last night which was very nice, so i intend to keep up the poker again for a while longer

Thurles thursday

2007-01-17T23:42:00.000Z

Thurles 1,45. Cleini is favourite as he is the class horse in the race by a long shot. However he has only won on good and never tried at today's distance. Hopefully there will be a few non runners tomorrow as he seems to prefer big field sizes. Pontium is the value bet. 8/1 seems very good value for a horse who is one of the only ones to have won at this distance and also a course winner. I'm going to have a point each way on this one.

I'm going to have half a point each way on our Ben in the grade 2 chase. looks in good form and if he can have a clear round he will come close to forget the past.

Gazza's girl in the 3.15 should outclass the rest so 1 point win here if i can get 2/1.

Wednesday 17 Jan 2006

2007-01-17T00:56:00.000Z

No bet on tuesday as no value. None for tomorrow either. The whisperer looks like a banker but odds are too low at 1.55.

16 Jan 2006

2007-01-15T22:18:00.000Z

A good winner today. It returned at 9/4 which was very good odds for a 2 horse race in my opinion.

Tomorrow Superrollercoaster is running in the 3.20 at Folkstone. I will back if i can get 7/2. Radcliffe may be a danger in this race as williams is in unreal form and had a tremendous record at folkstone over fences. Reason i will not back though is horses record in race sizes bigger than 6.

Monday

2007-01-14T23:57:00.000Z

No bets today horseracing wise. I did lay hearts and regina using a seperate account.

Tomorrow i have a fancy for Santando in the 1.30 in plumpton. 2/1 seems fair in a two horse race. Wingman is too short at 11/10.

Saturday

2007-01-13T01:48:00.000Z

You sir looks the one to beat in the first in Punchestown. Forget the past is the only danger, but he has been delayed coming back this year so somethings not right with him. This hurdle race looks like a tester to him to see how he is. I m not betting here until i see the odds tomorrow. 6/4 or better probably for You Sir.

kempton 1.30 - prince ary > 6/4.
2.10 barber shop
2.45 Ferimon E/W

Wetherby 1.15 Canada street

maybe more tomorrow. too tired now...

friday

2007-01-13T01:31:00.000Z

I had one bet today, Elgar in the handicap chase in huntington. I did not post the selction as i really didnt think i would bet my bet matched. it was trading at 3.5 and i left an order for 4. anyways he won and returned at 4/1. I couldnt belive he returned at such a price. That means my bank is at 360 now.

Result

2007-01-11T21:17:00.000Z

Bad call today, but not too cut up about it. I ddnt think it would get matched but it did at 3.10. I should really have dutched holy tree and fred benefits or maybe not betat all as the winner wasnt really jumping out the page at me.

Limerick

2007-01-10T23:07:00.000Z

The first race in Limerick is aNovice Hurdle. Only three really in this unles some major mishap. They are all very close and a case can be made for all the first tree in the market. Holy tree in dropping in class but has a severe case of seconditis at the moment and i belive he would prefer a flatter track. Farmer jack looks like he will go close but his trainer record of 0/18 over hurdles doesnt instil confidence and triner form not great. Im siding with Freds Benefit. He is taking a step up in class but performed well in limerick the last day and did nearly lose the jockey at he last so would have probably won by more only for that. Also look at mullins record in limerick 42% and with ruby on board gets the nodd in what could be a great finish. I may only back though if i get 3.10 or better.

Havent time to look at British races.

Soccer

2007-01-10T23:03:00.000Z

I had no racing bets today but i did back Aberdeen and Dunfermline to be greater than 2.5 goals. Made 20 quid. I also did a small trade on the Getaffe Valencia game in the under 2.5 goal market to make 4 quid. Bank slowly but surely back in profit! €324!

Non runners

2007-01-10T00:17:00.000Z

My two short listed horses were non runners today. I looked over Wincanton races but nothing clear stands out so no bets for wednesday.

9 Jan 2007

2007-01-08T21:44:00.000Z

3.05 sedgefield 27 Furlong Heavy

The following i am discounted
Wilie the fish - distance and going
Amber light - form and going
Nectar de Guye - Seconditis and better mud lovers in the race
Its definite - top weight on heavy ground for good ground horse
Uneven Line - Distance - if race was 3 furlong shorter this would be ideal.
Sailor a Hoy - Distance and form

This leaves 2 for the shortlist
Jballingall - Bottom weight, course and distance winner on heavy ground. Likes a test of stamina, trainer has 1/2 record here over chase jumps and jockey has high strike rate for trainer. Has won in Hexham and sedgefield, both of which are stiff tracks.Trainer had a 100/1 second place during the week, so hopefully its a sigh he is in good form. came 3rd in a 2 mile race last time out so current form is good.

Cinnamon Line - likes heavy going and in good form. Small time Trainer has had 1 win and 2 places with big prices in the last 2 weeks. however he has not won on a recognised stiff track and not with second top weight of 11 10 on his back.

Therefore Jballinggall to win.

08 Jan 2007

2007-01-07T23:22:00.000Z

Well no racing in ireland tomorrow so im justr gave a quick look over the non handicap and handicap chase races in Britain. One stands out as a pretty decent value bet. Tauton 2.30 Marcel. Currently trading at 3.95 in a 4 horse race. Positives for Marcel is that he likes small fields, espically over chase jumps, likes tight tracks, likes going, distance, jockey has 1/2 strike rate with horse, jockey has 40% strike rate for david pipe over chases, and pipes stable in terrific form. likes season, days since last run and form seems ok when in small fields. Negative is his jumping. However with the small field and McCoy on board this should help matters. Aslo hoping that Spidam blows up due to first race back after a year off.

Resumption!

2007-01-07T22:30:00.000Z

Ok, the itch is back again. Today was the first day i looked at the racing post in a while. I had three bets. i made 67.13 profit. All bets were in Naas. Kazal in the 2.00 at 11/4 came first (20 euro bet) in the competitive Novice hurdle. I then backed the favourite in the handicap chase in the next, Dead Sound and also backed charlie swans charge on the place market, Royal Man. the favourite came now where and im disappointed i baced it because on closer iunspection, chelsea harbout was the obvious choice to win this race. Royal Man battled back gamely to reclaim third spot and ensure i made a profit on this race of 15 euro. I aso started trading onthe man utd - aston villa game in the under - overs market and i made 2 euros from that. i can see myself starting to trade on the football a lot more. More to come on that in a few weeks.

Anyway i am changing my strategy. I have been trying to cover every race type in ireland and britain so im going to concentrate on non handicap national hunt races and small field handicap chases in Ireland. I will still have a few bets in britain but only when i see a stand out selection. the reason i have narrowed down my racing selection to this is simple. these are my more profitable areas.

burn out

2007-01-03T18:45:00.000Z

Please excuse the lack of posting over the festive season. after 5 years of looking at the racing post every day i believe i have suffered burn out! So im taking a small break until i get the itch again!

back soon

20 Dec 2006

2006-12-20T02:35:00.000Z

i had 4 backs today and 1 winner to break even. Saturdays results were ok, no winners but a couple placed, however these dont build up the bank... 3 lays for wednesday. i may also try a bit of trading..Betfair Balance 242

Kempton 3.15 Decider (< 3/1)
Lingfield 2.30 Cusoon (< 4/1)
Musselburgh 2.20 Transit (<>

16 Dec 2006

2006-12-16T01:39:00.000Z

No Lays. I did short list three but have decided against.For refernece they were Kilbeggan Blade - progressive and conditions to suit , Wee Charlie Castle - 50/50 so decided to be safe, Special Gold - again a touch and go one so i will leave it, i do think he will be outlcassed.

HS Backs
Kempton 4.20 Nou Camp
Lingfield 1.30 Poly Jones

Value Backs
Ascot 1.1o Fork Lightning >9/1
Fairyhouse 1.55 Cadogan >5/1
Haydock 2.35 Wild Cane Ridge > 2/1
Lingfield 2.40 Red Spell >5/2

Downturn continues

2006-12-16T01:37:00.000Z

Another bad day today. I suppose thats I we have a big bank!
one lay matched and duly lost. But the three backs all lost. I will however continue on for tomorrow as i have spotted a few nice priced value backs and if one comes in will do wonders for the betting bank. Betfair balance is 291.

15 Dec 2006

2006-12-15T00:45:00.000Z

Betfair Balance is €311.80

Value Lays
A 2.00 Carilitos <4/1 - Reason Up in class and bad trainer form
K4.20 Larkys Lob <4/1 - Reason - Mainly due to time frame, needs 15 days minimum rest.

HS Backs
GP 1.45 Scalinis
W1.40 Came Back

Value Backs
Ascot 3.10 Pass Me a Dime > 8/1

Downturn

2006-12-15T00:38:00.000Z

Another bad day at the office. i didn't not have time to post today but i have 3 lays and 2 HS backs. 2 lays were successful. the bad won won at 9/4 but i layed it at 11/4. the two HS backs were beat. One of them should not have been bet on due to the number of days absence from track but missed this due to looking at bets in the morning when half asleep..

On a positive note, Williams horse did the business, and won at 9/4 of course i never got to the bookies to place bet on this as i was having my christmas lunch at work and also for being still annoyed with my self for backing his other horse on wednesday when it had no chance...

To make matters worse i lasted 35 minutes at the poker tournament tonight. Again I was huge favourite after the flop with trip jacks and went all in with 2 others. one got running diamonds to get the flush after he had Ace king in the hole.

A bad days gambling all round. If tomorrow is like this I may take Saturday off to regain composure.

HS Back

2006-12-13T23:40:00.000Z

Well, the High Strike rate Backs seem to be living up to their name since i jigged the system a bit. 50% strike rate.. i know i know its only the first 2 days of the rejigged system so too early to call.

I backed at 2.6 but reduction factor meant price matched was reduced to 2.33 for a profit of 1.33 points. Betfairr balance now €341.44. As for my long shot, i suppose it was more a hopeful bet than anything else. im not going to be so stupid again. as betting is all about discipline, this was a stupid bet today.. However i will be keeping an eye on Williams runners in future and if they have good past form and are gone stale then the switch to his stable could pay dividends. i will not be counting this bet in my betfair balance as bet was made in my other account.

By the way just after checking and Williams has one runner tomorrow which he has taken under his charge. 2.40 in exeter , Pole Star. he has the class and will like the going however he has been installed as favourite, 11/4.

A bit tired now so i'll post up selections in the morning.

13 Dec 2006

2006-12-12T23:50:00.000Z

Again no value lays or backs today.

One HS Back though
Ling 2.15 Artzola

I am going to have an value Each way bet to minimum stakes on Court Alliance tomorrow in the 1.20 in Newbury. Its a long shot but in a weak maiden and mircle trainer Evan Williams with first time out horses switched into his stables, its worth a punt. If you backed all his horses first time out after switching to his stables you would have a level stakes profit of 76 points since 2003. He has performed well on good to soft so hopefully he will take to soft and will be able to do better at the trip. This is more a hopeful punt then a confident back but at odds of 75 on betfair its definitely value.

1 from 3

2006-12-12T23:44:00.000Z

Superrollercoaster does the business today, winner at 3/1. i however only got it matched at 5/2 on betfair before i went to work so a tiny profit of half a point today. I really should not have bet Leadaway, it didnt have a hope on that going. Red River Rebel came second. i think i m due a day where most of the selections come in. for one thing its definitely needed! Betfair balance is €328.53.

12 Dec 2006

2006-12-12T01:07:00.000Z

HS Backs
South 2.30 Red River Rebel
Folk 12.10 Leadaway
Folk 2.40 Superrollercoaster

No value backs or lays tomorrow.

HS backs system has been revised, however looking over the form properly im not too confident in Leadaway, but then i look at what he's up against and none of them are heavy going performers so he may have a chance.

Black Monday Again

2006-12-12T01:03:00.000Z

It happened again. Another loss on a Monday! the lay had an easy win. i though some of the others would have put up a better fight.. The value back ended up not value but i had got on at value so in total i lost 3.3 points today. Betfair balance 324.

Tomorrows another day, but it looks like only revised HS backs. I will post under new post

11 Dec 2006

2006-12-11T01:37:00.000Z

Value Lays
Plu 2.15 Zimbabwe <7/2

Value Backs
Ayr 2.25 Hugo De Grez >9/4

Winner alright

2006-12-11T01:29:00.000Z

Well, In compliance did the business. I wont be counting it in my results as i didnt have it listed as a definite bet, plus i backed it in the bookies. Thankfully I have recouped my losses on Nine O from last week.

Too far back won as well in a cracking finish. 1 from 2 of the lays were successful, so betfair account only increased by just under 1 point today. Balance currently stands at €357.71.

10 Dec 2006

2006-12-10T00:28:00.000Z

A good days racing in Ireland with two meetings on in Cork and Punchestown. A mouth watering prospect is the renewal of the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase where the line up includes luminaries such as War of Attrition, Hi Cloy, In Compliance, Justified and Nickname. War of attrition is worthy favourites but in such a high quality line up he is no certainity. His ideal conditions is 2 mile 6 and fresh where he has a strike rate of 5/5. He has had his 5 week minimum break which he needs to preform at his best. The only worry is the distance as he has only a 1/3 success rate at 2mile 4. Im expecting a big run from In Compliance whose trainer reckons this horse is better than people think. He will love the heavy going, distance and course. Nickname also looks interesting. He had an amazing start to his chasing career last year with two wins in Leopardstown including the Grade 2 event last january. He won first time out this season in Navan and with the booking of Ruby Walsh for thr first time, this could bring about the change necessary to wiin this Grade 1 event.

If I was to call it i would have to go for War of attrition however i would not back it as 2/1 is too short, so the value selection would have to be In Compliance if you could get on at 9/2. Nickname is too short at 7/2, I think 7/1 would be the right price. An honorably mention for Justified who is in with a shout but suspect trainer form would make me pass.

As it is a such a tight race, i will not decide if i will back In Compliance until tomorrow however the following are my definite bets.

Value Lays
Cork 1.45 Kill Devil Hill <4/1
Kempton 3.30 Moyoko < 4/1

HS Backs
None

Value Backs
Punchestown 3.05 Toofarback >5/2

This looks like the ideal opportunity for Too Far Back to accomplish his first chase win after 2 decent attempts in a higher class race than this and hopefully can eliminate those mistakes which cost him a place or two in his last race and his true class can show.

I have also back tested the HS backs system a bit more and had modified a few things which will reduce the selctions and hopefully keep the strike rate at around 35%.

Lay Pay Day

2006-12-09T19:32:00.000Z

Well the three lays were all succesful today and at good value prices too.
So betfair Balance is now €348.

Im going to do some serious back testing on the HS system tonight because looking back at my results, i am in profit for the value lays and value backs but not the HS backs. I will also do up a results section.

But now, time to watch the premiership highlights!

9 Dec 2006

2006-12-09T10:26:00.000Z

An unlucky day yesterday. Aces four came second and decent odds. My Will came 3rd but lost by a short head. I havent seen the race but from what i can gather he came very close. You would expect ruby walsh to close out one of those finishes.. Soverign Spirit rana disappointing race and from the comments in running he never really had a chance. possibly jockeys fault, but can t confirm that til i see the race. Betfair balance now a disappointing €320

Only Lays today.

Value Lays
Mr 1.15 Ever Special < 2/1
South 12.35 Mario Antonio < 4/1
South 2.50 Astronimical Odds<4/1

8 Dec 2006

2006-12-08T01:40:00.000Z

back from the poker tournament. Finished 12th out of 65 and absolutely sickened. The only pocket pair i got was pocket aces and i called all in to a fella with pocket six's. anyway the turn was a 6 so i was the very unlucky loser. i would off had 12000 chips going into the final table if i had of won that, instead i was out of there..sickened!

Tomorrows racing is quiet. No value lays or HS backs but i have 3 pretty decent Value backs

Value Backs
Chel 12.10 Aces Four >9/4
Chel 1.20 My Will >6/1
Wolv 3.20 Sovereign Spirit >4/1

Aces four is in a tough race and i would advise if the going gets softer than Good-soft then i would not back. however i will have bet placed regardless in the morning so hopefully ground wont go against. His chase wins have been in small fields and on a plus is the fact that he ahs won in Newcastle over the distance which is also a stiff course similiar to cheltenham. Also his jumping is improving with each race. At 5/1 this horse is value.

My Will may be tough to get ona t 6/1 seeing as ruby is on board. I think 6 is value in a pretty tough race but he is a course winner and im hoping the drop back in distance wont hinder him.

Sovereign Spirt looks like his in form. his last race was over an unsuitable distance carrying an extreme amount of weight over the winner zaville. he is on better terms today and back over his preferred trip. only negative is the inexperienced jockey but hopefully he will ride to orders and his has already rode 4 winners in his short career.

Bad day at the office

2006-12-07T18:10:00.000Z

Well, this week has been pretty dismal. I wonder is it the inclement weather which is causing all my back selections to lose. Again my Lay lost so happy with the strike rate of those, but im very very unhappy about Nine O. I lost 100 euro today on that horse. i didnt see the race but i heard he hit one fence badly and lost his action and didnt recover.

The HS Backs may need an overhaul. I need to do some serious back testing on the system and maybe implement a value betting strategy to it.

anyways my betfair account is 350 now, so im down 3 points today but still up 4 points from when i started.

So overall im still happy about how i select my value lays and value backs but need to do some more work on the HS backing System.

Tonight im off to play a poker tournament. I hope i can keep my discipline and make the final table at least.

7 Dec 2006

2006-12-06T22:50:00.000Z

Value Lays
Ludl 3.10 Brown Fox

HS Backs
Clon 2.35 Nine O
Wolv 3.45 Dressed to Dance
Wolv 5.50 Briannsta

Value Back
Hunt 1.30 See the Light >7/2

Nine O is running tomorrow. needless to say , he has a cracking chance.

Betfair Maintenance Malarky

2006-12-06T20:24:00.000Z

Well Betfair were up to their usual tricks again today. Maintenance started at 4am and when i got up at 8.30, they were still at it. Therefore only some of my bets got matched today. One of my successful lays didn't get matched but either did 2 of the unsuccessful HS backs. 2.70 of my bet for Green Black was matched who came a decent 3rd. A lot of money must have been put on him today as he returned at 9/2. betfair balance stands at 381 after today.

Brave Inca won today and i am kinda kicking myself i didnt back him as it was a value bet.

6 Dec 2006

2006-12-05T23:35:00.000Z

Hard to believe its the 6th of Dec already, so have to get cracking with making a bit of a leap in the betting bank. Fairy house is back on for the postponed card tomorrow. there is talk that asian maze may not run tomorrow as he might run in cheltenham next sat instead. we'll wait and see.

Selections for tomorrow are
Value Lays
Hexham 12.20 Lowsha Green <4/1
Wolves 6.20 Saltrio <4/1

HS Backs
Kempton 2.40 Task Complete
Kempton 3.40 Siraj
Wolves 5.20 Will He Wish

Value Backs
Fairyhouse 3.05 Green Back >9/1

I have looked over the HS system backs and have dropped two. I was going to drop Task Complete, but i think horse is going the right way and trainer has had 2 from 4 strike rate over the past 14 days and the race looks terribly weak. the distance is a worry.

Siraj has visor on for 2nd time today and is adaptable enough to get out of his bad draw. Will he wish and Siraj actually are very close to value bets so hopefully a good day tomorrow.

Green back looks solid too. Loves the conditions and is a stayer. Has won off this mark before and has been racing reasonably well the past few runs. Has won in this time of year before and only negative is the jockey who hasnt got a great strike rate. he has at least won a good few races and has some winning experience at fairyhouse.

Tuesdays Action

2006-12-05T23:31:00.000Z

No selections for tuesday. i just didnt have the time on Monday evening to do any analysis. looking back over todays racing, i probably would have made a point profit. Anyways i have a good few for tomorrow.

Black Monday

2006-12-04T19:48:00.000Z

Not one winner today. all of the selections were from the new system. This maybe sounds as a warning sign as i should really have a look over these form wise before i post. i would not have bet on 5 of these selections today if i actually read the form, however that still means i would have picked 3 loosers anyways. Luckily i missed the first race so lost 4 points today. So disappointingly back under the 400 mark to 385. Tomorrows another day.

4 Dec 2006

2006-12-03T23:06:00.000Z

Value Lays
None

HS Backs
Ling 12.10 Goose Chase & Georges Flyer
1.10 Outer Hebrides & Marko Jadeo
2.40 Beauchamp Viceroy & Lordswood
Wolv 1.00 Star Fern
3.30 Tabago Reef

Value Backs
None

Not much on for tomorrow value wise. For the HS backs i will be staking half point on races with 2 selections and 1 point for the others.

Wind rules!

2006-12-03T22:48:00.000Z

Well, a disappointing day racing wise with the meet in fairyhouse abandoned. Also a disappointing day for my selections. However my 2 lays were successful, my value back bet was not matched and my two HS backs did not perform.
This all meant i broke even for the day, or down 50 cent to be totally honest. bank is still at 425.

I also looked over what i missed on saturday and I was probably lucky i took the day off as i would have been down around 2 points.

I also started playing poker again today on line, so i might start reporting on that when theres not much racing on. any ways i came 2nd in a 9 seater single table tournament to win a huge 13.50 dollars! I took a break for two weeks coz i went on tilt and lost my (small) bank roll. lesson now learnt i hope.

Backs

2006-12-03T11:51:00.000Z

HS backs
Ling 3.20 carragh mia
Ilza

Value backs
Ling 2.50 Red spell >13/2

An honourable mention for brave inca in the 2.05 today. at 3/1 and with tony mccoy back on board, it represents value ina two horse race in my opinion however i m not sure whether to back it or not. Asian maze has a record of 9-11 in races over 2m2f and likes the going as well. also brave incas form in this race is not good. the only negative which stands out for asian maze is he has never won in a race field smaller than 7 runners. Also the gale force winds will bring out the battling qualities in these horses and if brave inca is fully fit after his much needed last run, then he has the extra gears to win the fight.. i may back him if i can get 7/2.

3 Dec 2006

2006-12-03T11:40:00.000Z

value Lays

Lingfield 11.50 Fastrac Boy <4/1
Lingfielg 3.20 Missie Bailey <4/1

Back Bets to follow shortley

results

2006-12-03T11:39:00.000Z

no post uesterday due to feeing under the weather. Self inflicted .. Anyways, 2.5 points were made on Friday so bank at 425 now.

01 Dec 2006

2006-12-01T00:33:00.000Z

Another quiet enough day.

Value lay
Lingfield 12.50 Shade Cozy <7/2

HS Backs
Exeter 2.45 Minella Tipperary
Vererka

Value Backs
Lingfield 12.50 Small Stakes >10/3

Small stakes looks like a good bet. He won last time out wearing first time visor. horses wearing headgear means two things. It either frightens the bejazus outta them and they end up blowing up half way through the race from the scare of not been able to see around them. Or on the other hand and this is only about 10% of the time it actually improves a horse. The one thing that we do know about headgear is that it is proven that a horse will actually run better wearing headgear on the second time out.

im backing the two HS back to level stakes. I think minella tipperary is a deserving favourite but he made heavy work of winning last time out, however course and distance winner means a lot here espcially proven on soft. Ververka last run was encouraging and the stiff track at exeter and soft going will bring his stamina out to the fore, well hopefully so this could be a good forecast opportunity.

The Lay should lose. he is outclassed in this race as said earlier small stakes look like a good bet of his lowly handicap mark.

First Loss

2006-11-30T17:37:00.000Z

Well it had to come! Today i was so excited about Nine O that I withdrew 100 of my non betting bank money and braved the rain and went to the bookies at lunch time where to find out he was declared a non runner after being backed in from 10's to 6's... what a bummer.

and to compound matters my single lay went and won and my value bet won but was not matched on Betfair. Collinstown then pulled up so i presume the weather today turned the ground totally bottemless in thurles..even more of a pity that Nine O didnt run. So a total loss on the day of 3 points. Betfair account now standing at €399.30.

I now have to contemplate playing soccer in the howling wind and rain so not a happy camper to say the least. Back later with tomorrows selections.

30 Nov 2006

2006-11-29T22:48:00.000Z

Value Lays
Wincanton 3.10 Rosses Point <7/2

HS Backs
Thurles 1.45 Collinstown & Nine O

Value Backs
MR 1.50 Kilbeggan Blade >9/4

I dont think we'll get value on kilbeggan blade tomorrow. he's currently trading at 6/4. very short price considering he hs never ran at 3m4f before.

Liquidity is always a problem on the small race meets in ireland so i might have to back the HS backs in the bookies tomorrow. i'll see whats on offer on betfair in the morning. Nine O is looking like a seriously good bet. again the odds are crap on betfair at the moment. if i can get 7/1 i will be very happy. all his wins come on 9 -11 furlong right handed tracks with a run in of between 1 .5 and 2.5 furlongs and up hill finish (Since he went handicapping if you discount the one run for unsuitable ground - firm- his strike rate is 5/5). he is a seasonal performer and loves the muck. braddish is a small trainer so watch out for a major gamble tomorrow. this could be his chance to pay his wages for the year!

So in retrospect i will be betting on all these with my usual €10 stake but i will also be going to bookies to put a decent sized bet on Nine O.

Betfair Balance

2006-11-29T21:31:00.000Z

profit again!

2006-11-29T18:20:00.001Z

Another profitable day. this time only 1.6 points profit, or €16.81 to be exact. In summary 1 of my lys was matched and came nonwhere. My HS back won again. Im having agreat run with these at the moment. Only negative here was i took the early price of 1.7 and it returned at 2.25.. not to worrythough as i have been getting better than SP all week so i was due a change.. One of the value backs was a non runner and the other one as not matched.

current Betfair balance stands at €428.70.

I have been informed by a friend of how to add my betfair screen print but it involves getting photoshop, so im going see if i can get my hands on the software this evening.

29 Nov 2006

2006-11-28T23:35:00.000Z

Value Lays
Kempton 4.50 Jordans Light (again) <3/1
Kempton 5.50 Hello Man < 4/1

HS Backs
Catterick 2.20 Flake

Value Backs Catterick 1.50 River Logic >5/1
Kempton 5.10 Lake Pontchartrain >5/1

Profit again

2006-11-28T20:17:00.000Z

Another decent days racing, but mainly thanks to better odds matched on betfair. To SP i would have made 0.4 or so points but i actaully made 2 points profit today. current betfair balance is €411.89. thats 10 clear points profit in 5 days.. i must admit i m very happy with the progress. i have also had some analysis done on my lay selections and i am pretty happy now that im reaching a level of consistency that will only benefit my betting portfolio. I can hope to make at least 10 points a month profit from my lays. If i could make 10 points each from my value backs and my HS backs then i will be a very happy man.. hopefuly the good run will continue so that i can reach 500 within the next 5 days..From then on I will be increasing my stake to 1/50th of the bank..

Once again i want to stress the importance of having a betting portfolio if you do not like long losing streaks. Of course you need winning methods or systems to keep afloat. I have a laying method and a backing method which produces my value backs and lays and i have a system i use for the HS backs. I have very little back testing done on the HS backs but im more than comfortable to back these at €1o a point. the big test will come if i can start getting the stake up to a higher amount, then the nerves will be tested.

I have been tryiing to post up screen prints of my betfair account but i havent been able to master it yet. i'll see if i can get it sorted at the weekend.

28 Nov 2006

2006-11-27T21:54:00.000Z

i was going to ahve 3 lay s today but decided against one due to it been a course specialist(buscador) and the fact it had won after a long break before. i do think however that this is a stronger race then he is used to but will just leave it pass today.

Value Lays
S1.30 Strikeen <3/1
actually im only going to have one lay today.. the other one , leprechauns gold looks too high a price and its connections are good so again will pass.

HS Backs
L1.50 Desert Light
3.20 Sotik Star
S1.00 Bodden Bay
1.30 Shouldnt be there

nice!

2006-11-27T20:05:00.000Z

Well, a good day was had today. Its nice to see the bank grow by 20%. it currently stands at €392. Todays profit was 5.9 points. the HS backs did the business with all 4 winning. the lays were disappointing but for some reason one of the lays was not matched so saved on 2 poiints! however my value back was matched even though it returned at 4/1. It came second .that's two days in a row now, but not too unhappy as they are all getting in the frame.

So currently up 8.2 points since commencement.

27 Nov 2006

2006-11-26T23:37:00.000Z

Value lays
Folk 12.30 Harcourt 4/1
2.00 The Hardy Boy <4/1
3.30 Maggie MAthias <7/2
Wolv 1.20 Blue Hedges <4/1
2.20 Saltrio <7/2
3.20 Keep your Distance <4/1

HS Backs
K 2.40 Mythical Charm
3.10 Africa Concerto/Siraj
3.40 Artrolu
W 2.50 essemer

Value backs
W1.20 Cumbrian Knight >5/1

small profit

2006-11-26T23:30:00.000Z

results ok today. 2 lays lost as expected and gods token came 2nd but surprisingly did not use front running tactics. price drifted to 8/1 before the off but in all honesty was comfortably beaten by the winner.. manhatten boy won easy but i did not back due to short price. so made 1 point profit to day

betfair balance is €332. profit since start is 2.2 points. i would be extremely happy if i could make 3 points a week as once i start to increment the stake size the bank would grow very quickly.

26 Nov 2006

2006-11-25T23:25:00.000Z

Tomorrow is a quieter day thank god, so less work to do. After my costly mistakes yesterday i think i have identified two good lays for sunday.

Value Lays
F12.10 Beauchamp Star <7/2 L1.25 Sitting Duck <4/1

HS Backs N3.15 Diego Cao/Tessandora/Manhattan Boy Im unsure yet how i will structure this bet. If i can make 0.7 of a point from a dutch i may do that or else have hedging bets on the first two to cover main bet on Manhatten Boy.

Value Backs F1.45 Gods Token >7/2
he has never won at fontwell, but is a front runner so this course will give him every chance to win. he wins fresh and at 13/2 is defo value. trainer in good form and jockey has good strike rate for trainer. Its a competitive race though but as stated before there's definitely value there.

By the way Running total from commencement is +1.2 points

So So day today

2006-11-25T21:01:00.000Z

Today was a so so day.. im kinda kicking myself for selecting two lays which went and won today. However hindsight is great, anyways i have noted what went wrong and hopefully will not make the same mistake again. So today my Betfair balance stands at €323.12 so a profit of three points was made.

there were 11 lays today, one was not matched, 6 successful and 4 won, -2.3 points to SP.
3 HS backs, 1 non runner. 1 from 2 won for -0.1 loss to SP but a 0.4 profit to betfair
4 value backs today, 1 non runner, 1 from 3 won, returned 7/2 SP which was below value but i matched it at 6.0 for betfair profit of 3.7 points. this implies i only lost 1 point for the lays..it shows i got some very good value today on my lays even though they returned in a loss.

Wolves Tonight 25th Nov

2006-11-25T16:36:00.000Z

2 more for tonight

Value lays 8.30 Second Reef <4/1
HS backs 8.00 Mazin Lady

Day 2, busy day on Sat

2006-11-25T01:08:00.000Z

A lot of selections so no small talk!

Value lays
3.50 Jordans light <4/1
4.50 Galaxy of stars <4/1
5.50 Neardownbeauty <4/1
1.30 Baylini <7/2
3.45 Afsoun <3/1
2.25 Shannon Pride <5/2
3.00 Neptune Collonges <7/2
1.15 Tabora <5/2
1.45 Bay Island <3/1
2.50 Apple Joe <2/1

HS Backs
ling 1.30 Cesc
Tow 1.15 Bonnets Peices

Value Backs
6.20 Reeling and Rocking >6/1
Newb 2.40 Vodka Bleu >5/1
3.45 See the Light >7/2
Newc 3.00 Fundamentalist >5/1

Im a bit worried about tomorrow. theres a lot of lays and if 2 of the higher priced ones come in, it will negate the profit of all the others.. anyways hopefully it will all be good come tomorrow evening. im pretty happy with the back selections. Espcially the value backs as there is some real value with these horses for tomorrow. the one selection i worry about is vodka bleu as it has never tackled this distance before. however he likes the track and was in great shape last time out after a long lay off so current price of 12/1 seems reasonable, hoping that he will improve on this run plus he goes wil for timmy murphy.

First day not off to such a great start!

2006-11-24T21:24:00.000Z

Well 1 from 2 of the lays today. One bet was not matched.
HS backs, all three lost.
Value Backs, 3 qualified and one won for a profit of 1.5 points.
All this implies that Betfair balance now 292.

Results to SP were -1.2 points
Results to Betfair prices - 1.8 points

From what i can gather Mandarin Spirit was doing his best work near the finish line but got blocked in earlier in the race. As with all good systems, we start on a losing day with the HS backs;-)

Day off tomorrow so hope to sort out selections later and post. Saturdays are usually a good day for me so hopefully that will continue.

First Day, 24 Nov 2006

2006-11-23T22:32:00.000Z

Day 1 of the punting for profits challenge.

Lays
Kemp 3.50 Bussel (<3/1)
5.20 Poseidon's Secret (<7/2)
Wolv 1.45 Situla (<4/1)

HS Backs
Kemp 6.20 Buy On The Red
Wolv 2.20 Matuza
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea/Kings Quay

Value Backs
Kemp 5.50 Mandarin Spirit (>=4/1)
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea (>=4/1)
Newb 1.00 Freeze The Frame (>=11/8)
Newb 2.40 Boychuk (>=13/8)

Hopefully a good day to start us off.

The Goal

2006-11-23T18:52:00.000Z

The aim of this blog is to keep track of my daily horse racing bets. I am starting with a bank of €310 in my Betfair 1 account and my initial stakes are €10 which implies i have a 31 point bank. The reason i am comfortable with this relatively small sized bank is the high strike rate of both my back and lay selections . I would preferrably like to have a 50 point bank so if the need arises i will deposit an extra €190 into my Betfair account. Hopefully i will not have too. If and when my account goes above 500, i will start to increase my stake to 1/50th of the bank. If I go broke i will take a break and go back to the drawing board!

I have broken down my selections into 3 types
Value Lays
Value Backs
High Strike rate Backs (HS Backs for short)

For Value lays i will state the highest price that the selection can be layed at. I must admit i miss out on a few of my lays as i place my bets in the morning and sometimes they do not get matched as i place too low a price lay thinking the early markets are too generous to the backers even though it is still within my lay limit. The best time to lay is 5 minutes before the off as its when the prices most resembles the SP. Only when my stakes are €50 will i be able to phone in my selections at that time, so a bit to go yet! (I dont have internet access at work)

Value Backs Selections does as it says on the tin. I will back horses who i think are better value than they should be and i will advise a back price limit not to go under. The idea of value backs is to go against the crowd and be compensated with better odds when the selections win. Every professional punter believes in this philosophy. I usually do not have many of these bets a month but it is very rewarding when they do win.

HS Backs are something i stumbled on and is a system which produces a high strike rate with decent returns. There will be a few odds on selections and a few dutching bets but im hoping the high strike rate will compensate for the lack in perceived value of the odds.

Also i must warn that i may not be able to post 7 days a week but i will keep you updated of my selections and returns and hopefully i will be able to post screen shots of my bets as proof.

Good luck and thanks for reading for now!