Well it had to come! Today i was so excited about Nine O that I withdrew 100 of my non betting bank money and braved the rain and went to the bookies at lunch time where to find out he was declared a non runner after being backed in from 10's to 6's... what a bummer.
and to compound matters my single lay went and won and my value bet won but was not matched on Betfair. Collinstown then pulled up so i presume the weather today turned the ground totally bottemless in thurles..even more of a pity that Nine O didnt run. So a total loss on the day of 3 points. Betfair account now standing at €399.30.
I now have to contemplate playing soccer in the howling wind and rain so not a happy camper to say the least. Back later with tomorrows selections.
Thursday, 30 November 2006
Wednesday, 29 November 2006
30 Nov 2006
Value Lays
Wincanton 3.10 Rosses Point <7/2
HS Backs
Thurles 1.45 Collinstown & Nine O
Value Backs
MR 1.50 Kilbeggan Blade >9/4
I dont think we'll get value on kilbeggan blade tomorrow. he's currently trading at 6/4. very short price considering he hs never ran at 3m4f before.
Liquidity is always a problem on the small race meets in ireland so i might have to back the HS backs in the bookies tomorrow. i'll see whats on offer on betfair in the morning. Nine O is looking like a seriously good bet. again the odds are crap on betfair at the moment. if i can get 7/1 i will be very happy. all his wins come on 9 -11 furlong right handed tracks with a run in of between 1 .5 and 2.5 furlongs and up hill finish (Since he went handicapping if you discount the one run for unsuitable ground - firm- his strike rate is 5/5). he is a seasonal performer and loves the muck. braddish is a small trainer so watch out for a major gamble tomorrow. this could be his chance to pay his wages for the year!
So in retrospect i will be betting on all these with my usual €10 stake but i will also be going to bookies to put a decent sized bet on Nine O.
Wincanton 3.10 Rosses Point <7/2
HS Backs
Thurles 1.45 Collinstown & Nine O
Value Backs
MR 1.50 Kilbeggan Blade >9/4
I dont think we'll get value on kilbeggan blade tomorrow. he's currently trading at 6/4. very short price considering he hs never ran at 3m4f before.
Liquidity is always a problem on the small race meets in ireland so i might have to back the HS backs in the bookies tomorrow. i'll see whats on offer on betfair in the morning. Nine O is looking like a seriously good bet. again the odds are crap on betfair at the moment. if i can get 7/1 i will be very happy. all his wins come on 9 -11 furlong right handed tracks with a run in of between 1 .5 and 2.5 furlongs and up hill finish (Since he went handicapping if you discount the one run for unsuitable ground - firm- his strike rate is 5/5). he is a seasonal performer and loves the muck. braddish is a small trainer so watch out for a major gamble tomorrow. this could be his chance to pay his wages for the year!
So in retrospect i will be betting on all these with my usual €10 stake but i will also be going to bookies to put a decent sized bet on Nine O.
profit again!
Another profitable day. this time only 1.6 points profit, or €16.81 to be exact. In summary 1 of my lys was matched and came nonwhere. My HS back won again. Im having agreat run with these at the moment. Only negative here was i took the early price of 1.7 and it returned at 2.25.. not to worrythough as i have been getting better than SP all week so i was due a change.. One of the value backs was a non runner and the other one as not matched.
current Betfair balance stands at €428.70.
I have been informed by a friend of how to add my betfair screen print but it involves getting photoshop, so im going see if i can get my hands on the software this evening.
current Betfair balance stands at €428.70.
I have been informed by a friend of how to add my betfair screen print but it involves getting photoshop, so im going see if i can get my hands on the software this evening.
Tuesday, 28 November 2006
29 Nov 2006
Value Lays
Kempton 4.50 Jordans Light (again) <3/1
Kempton 5.50 Hello Man < 4/1
HS Backs
Catterick 2.20 Flake
Value Backs Catterick 1.50 River Logic >5/1
Kempton 5.10 Lake Pontchartrain >5/1
Kempton 4.50 Jordans Light (again) <3/1
Kempton 5.50 Hello Man < 4/1
HS Backs
Catterick 2.20 Flake
Value Backs Catterick 1.50 River Logic >5/1
Kempton 5.10 Lake Pontchartrain >5/1
Profit again
Another decent days racing, but mainly thanks to better odds matched on betfair. To SP i would have made 0.4 or so points but i actaully made 2 points profit today. current betfair balance is €411.89. thats 10 clear points profit in 5 days.. i must admit i m very happy with the progress. i have also had some analysis done on my lay selections and i am pretty happy now that im reaching a level of consistency that will only benefit my betting portfolio. I can hope to make at least 10 points a month profit from my lays. If i could make 10 points each from my value backs and my HS backs then i will be a very happy man.. hopefuly the good run will continue so that i can reach 500 within the next 5 days..From then on I will be increasing my stake to 1/50th of the bank..
Once again i want to stress the importance of having a betting portfolio if you do not like long losing streaks. Of course you need winning methods or systems to keep afloat. I have a laying method and a backing method which produces my value backs and lays and i have a system i use for the HS backs. I have very little back testing done on the HS backs but im more than comfortable to back these at €1o a point. the big test will come if i can start getting the stake up to a higher amount, then the nerves will be tested.
I have been tryiing to post up screen prints of my betfair account but i havent been able to master it yet. i'll see if i can get it sorted at the weekend.
Once again i want to stress the importance of having a betting portfolio if you do not like long losing streaks. Of course you need winning methods or systems to keep afloat. I have a laying method and a backing method which produces my value backs and lays and i have a system i use for the HS backs. I have very little back testing done on the HS backs but im more than comfortable to back these at €1o a point. the big test will come if i can start getting the stake up to a higher amount, then the nerves will be tested.
I have been tryiing to post up screen prints of my betfair account but i havent been able to master it yet. i'll see if i can get it sorted at the weekend.
Monday, 27 November 2006
28 Nov 2006
i was going to ahve 3 lay s today but decided against one due to it been a course specialist(buscador) and the fact it had won after a long break before. i do think however that this is a stronger race then he is used to but will just leave it pass today.
Value Lays
S1.30 Strikeen <3/1
actually im only going to have one lay today.. the other one , leprechauns gold looks too high a price and its connections are good so again will pass.
HS Backs
L1.50 Desert Light
3.20 Sotik Star
S1.00 Bodden Bay
1.30 Shouldnt be there
Value Lays
S1.30 Strikeen <3/1
actually im only going to have one lay today.. the other one , leprechauns gold looks too high a price and its connections are good so again will pass.
HS Backs
L1.50 Desert Light
3.20 Sotik Star
S1.00 Bodden Bay
1.30 Shouldnt be there
nice!
Well, a good day was had today. Its nice to see the bank grow by 20%. it currently stands at €392. Todays profit was 5.9 points. the HS backs did the business with all 4 winning. the lays were disappointing but for some reason one of the lays was not matched so saved on 2 poiints! however my value back was matched even though it returned at 4/1. It came second .that's two days in a row now, but not too unhappy as they are all getting in the frame.
So currently up 8.2 points since commencement.
So currently up 8.2 points since commencement.
Sunday, 26 November 2006
27 Nov 2006
Value lays
Folk 12.30 Harcourt 4/1
2.00 The Hardy Boy <4/1
3.30 Maggie MAthias <7/2
Wolv 1.20 Blue Hedges <4/1
2.20 Saltrio <7/2
3.20 Keep your Distance <4/1
HS Backs
K 2.40 Mythical Charm
3.10 Africa Concerto/Siraj
3.40 Artrolu
W 2.50 essemer
Value backs
W1.20 Cumbrian Knight >5/1
Folk 12.30 Harcourt 4/1
2.00 The Hardy Boy <4/1
3.30 Maggie MAthias <7/2
Wolv 1.20 Blue Hedges <4/1
2.20 Saltrio <7/2
3.20 Keep your Distance <4/1
HS Backs
K 2.40 Mythical Charm
3.10 Africa Concerto/Siraj
3.40 Artrolu
W 2.50 essemer
Value backs
W1.20 Cumbrian Knight >5/1
small profit
results ok today. 2 lays lost as expected and gods token came 2nd but surprisingly did not use front running tactics. price drifted to 8/1 before the off but in all honesty was comfortably beaten by the winner.. manhatten boy won easy but i did not back due to short price. so made 1 point profit to day
betfair balance is €332. profit since start is 2.2 points. i would be extremely happy if i could make 3 points a week as once i start to increment the stake size the bank would grow very quickly.
betfair balance is €332. profit since start is 2.2 points. i would be extremely happy if i could make 3 points a week as once i start to increment the stake size the bank would grow very quickly.
Saturday, 25 November 2006
26 Nov 2006
Tomorrow is a quieter day thank god, so less work to do. After my costly mistakes yesterday i think i have identified two good lays for sunday.
Value Lays
F12.10 Beauchamp Star <7/2 L1.25 Sitting Duck <4/1
HS Backs N3.15 Diego Cao/Tessandora/Manhattan Boy Im unsure yet how i will structure this bet. If i can make 0.7 of a point from a dutch i may do that or else have hedging bets on the first two to cover main bet on Manhatten Boy.
Value Backs F1.45 Gods Token >7/2
he has never won at fontwell, but is a front runner so this course will give him every chance to win. he wins fresh and at 13/2 is defo value. trainer in good form and jockey has good strike rate for trainer. Its a competitive race though but as stated before there's definitely value there.
By the way Running total from commencement is +1.2 points
Value Lays
F12.10 Beauchamp Star <7/2 L1.25 Sitting Duck <4/1
HS Backs N3.15 Diego Cao/Tessandora/Manhattan Boy Im unsure yet how i will structure this bet. If i can make 0.7 of a point from a dutch i may do that or else have hedging bets on the first two to cover main bet on Manhatten Boy.
Value Backs F1.45 Gods Token >7/2
he has never won at fontwell, but is a front runner so this course will give him every chance to win. he wins fresh and at 13/2 is defo value. trainer in good form and jockey has good strike rate for trainer. Its a competitive race though but as stated before there's definitely value there.
By the way Running total from commencement is +1.2 points
So So day today
Today was a so so day.. im kinda kicking myself for selecting two lays which went and won today. However hindsight is great, anyways i have noted what went wrong and hopefully will not make the same mistake again. So today my Betfair balance stands at €323.12 so a profit of three points was made.
there were 11 lays today, one was not matched, 6 successful and 4 won, -2.3 points to SP.
3 HS backs, 1 non runner. 1 from 2 won for -0.1 loss to SP but a 0.4 profit to betfair
4 value backs today, 1 non runner, 1 from 3 won, returned 7/2 SP which was below value but i matched it at 6.0 for betfair profit of 3.7 points. this implies i only lost 1 point for the lays..it shows i got some very good value today on my lays even though they returned in a loss.
there were 11 lays today, one was not matched, 6 successful and 4 won, -2.3 points to SP.
3 HS backs, 1 non runner. 1 from 2 won for -0.1 loss to SP but a 0.4 profit to betfair
4 value backs today, 1 non runner, 1 from 3 won, returned 7/2 SP which was below value but i matched it at 6.0 for betfair profit of 3.7 points. this implies i only lost 1 point for the lays..it shows i got some very good value today on my lays even though they returned in a loss.
Day 2, busy day on Sat
A lot of selections so no small talk!
Value lays
3.50 Jordans light <4/1
4.50 Galaxy of stars <4/1
5.50 Neardownbeauty <4/1
1.30 Baylini <7/2
3.45 Afsoun <3/1
2.25 Shannon Pride <5/2
3.00 Neptune Collonges <7/2
1.15 Tabora <5/2
1.45 Bay Island <3/1
2.50 Apple Joe <2/1
HS Backs
ling 1.30 Cesc
Tow 1.15 Bonnets Peices
Value Backs
6.20 Reeling and Rocking >6/1
Newb 2.40 Vodka Bleu >5/1
3.45 See the Light >7/2
Newc 3.00 Fundamentalist >5/1
Im a bit worried about tomorrow. theres a lot of lays and if 2 of the higher priced ones come in, it will negate the profit of all the others.. anyways hopefully it will all be good come tomorrow evening. im pretty happy with the back selections. Espcially the value backs as there is some real value with these horses for tomorrow. the one selection i worry about is vodka bleu as it has never tackled this distance before. however he likes the track and was in great shape last time out after a long lay off so current price of 12/1 seems reasonable, hoping that he will improve on this run plus he goes wil for timmy murphy.
Value lays
3.50 Jordans light <4/1
4.50 Galaxy of stars <4/1
5.50 Neardownbeauty <4/1
1.30 Baylini <7/2
3.45 Afsoun <3/1
2.25 Shannon Pride <5/2
3.00 Neptune Collonges <7/2
1.15 Tabora <5/2
1.45 Bay Island <3/1
2.50 Apple Joe <2/1
HS Backs
ling 1.30 Cesc
Tow 1.15 Bonnets Peices
Value Backs
6.20 Reeling and Rocking >6/1
Newb 2.40 Vodka Bleu >5/1
3.45 See the Light >7/2
Newc 3.00 Fundamentalist >5/1
Im a bit worried about tomorrow. theres a lot of lays and if 2 of the higher priced ones come in, it will negate the profit of all the others.. anyways hopefully it will all be good come tomorrow evening. im pretty happy with the back selections. Espcially the value backs as there is some real value with these horses for tomorrow. the one selection i worry about is vodka bleu as it has never tackled this distance before. however he likes the track and was in great shape last time out after a long lay off so current price of 12/1 seems reasonable, hoping that he will improve on this run plus he goes wil for timmy murphy.
Friday, 24 November 2006
First day not off to such a great start!
Well 1 from 2 of the lays today. One bet was not matched.
HS backs, all three lost.
Value Backs, 3 qualified and one won for a profit of 1.5 points.
All this implies that Betfair balance now 292.
Results to SP were -1.2 points
Results to Betfair prices - 1.8 points
From what i can gather Mandarin Spirit was doing his best work near the finish line but got blocked in earlier in the race. As with all good systems, we start on a losing day with the HS backs;-)
Day off tomorrow so hope to sort out selections later and post. Saturdays are usually a good day for me so hopefully that will continue.
HS backs, all three lost.
Value Backs, 3 qualified and one won for a profit of 1.5 points.
All this implies that Betfair balance now 292.
Results to SP were -1.2 points
Results to Betfair prices - 1.8 points
From what i can gather Mandarin Spirit was doing his best work near the finish line but got blocked in earlier in the race. As with all good systems, we start on a losing day with the HS backs;-)
Day off tomorrow so hope to sort out selections later and post. Saturdays are usually a good day for me so hopefully that will continue.
Thursday, 23 November 2006
First Day, 24 Nov 2006
Day 1 of the punting for profits challenge.
Lays
Kemp 3.50 Bussel (<3/1)
5.20 Poseidon's Secret (<7/2)
Wolv 1.45 Situla (<4/1)
HS Backs
Kemp 6.20 Buy On The Red
Wolv 2.20 Matuza
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea/Kings Quay
Value Backs
Kemp 5.50 Mandarin Spirit (>=4/1)
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea (>=4/1)
Newb 1.00 Freeze The Frame (>=11/8)
Newb 2.40 Boychuk (>=13/8)
Hopefully a good day to start us off.
Lays
Kemp 3.50 Bussel (<3/1)
5.20 Poseidon's Secret (<7/2)
Wolv 1.45 Situla (<4/1)
HS Backs
Kemp 6.20 Buy On The Red
Wolv 2.20 Matuza
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea/Kings Quay
Value Backs
Kemp 5.50 Mandarin Spirit (>=4/1)
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea (>=4/1)
Newb 1.00 Freeze The Frame (>=11/8)
Newb 2.40 Boychuk (>=13/8)
Hopefully a good day to start us off.
The Goal
The aim of this blog is to keep track of my daily horse racing bets. I am starting with a bank of €310 in my Betfair 1 account and my initial stakes are €10 which implies i have a 31 point bank. The reason i am comfortable with this relatively small sized bank is the high strike rate of both my back and lay selections . I would preferrably like to have a 50 point bank so if the need arises i will deposit an extra €190 into my Betfair account. Hopefully i will not have too. If and when my account goes above 500, i will start to increase my stake to 1/50th of the bank. If I go broke i will take a break and go back to the drawing board!
I have broken down my selections into 3 types
Value Lays
Value Backs
High Strike rate Backs (HS Backs for short)
For Value lays i will state the highest price that the selection can be layed at. I must admit i miss out on a few of my lays as i place my bets in the morning and sometimes they do not get matched as i place too low a price lay thinking the early markets are too generous to the backers even though it is still within my lay limit. The best time to lay is 5 minutes before the off as its when the prices most resembles the SP. Only when my stakes are €50 will i be able to phone in my selections at that time, so a bit to go yet! (I dont have internet access at work)
Value Backs Selections does as it says on the tin. I will back horses who i think are better value than they should be and i will advise a back price limit not to go under. The idea of value backs is to go against the crowd and be compensated with better odds when the selections win. Every professional punter believes in this philosophy. I usually do not have many of these bets a month but it is very rewarding when they do win.
HS Backs are something i stumbled on and is a system which produces a high strike rate with decent returns. There will be a few odds on selections and a few dutching bets but im hoping the high strike rate will compensate for the lack in perceived value of the odds.
Also i must warn that i may not be able to post 7 days a week but i will keep you updated of my selections and returns and hopefully i will be able to post screen shots of my bets as proof.
Good luck and thanks for reading for now!
I have broken down my selections into 3 types
Value Lays
Value Backs
High Strike rate Backs (HS Backs for short)
For Value lays i will state the highest price that the selection can be layed at. I must admit i miss out on a few of my lays as i place my bets in the morning and sometimes they do not get matched as i place too low a price lay thinking the early markets are too generous to the backers even though it is still within my lay limit. The best time to lay is 5 minutes before the off as its when the prices most resembles the SP. Only when my stakes are €50 will i be able to phone in my selections at that time, so a bit to go yet! (I dont have internet access at work)
Value Backs Selections does as it says on the tin. I will back horses who i think are better value than they should be and i will advise a back price limit not to go under. The idea of value backs is to go against the crowd and be compensated with better odds when the selections win. Every professional punter believes in this philosophy. I usually do not have many of these bets a month but it is very rewarding when they do win.
HS Backs are something i stumbled on and is a system which produces a high strike rate with decent returns. There will be a few odds on selections and a few dutching bets but im hoping the high strike rate will compensate for the lack in perceived value of the odds.
Also i must warn that i may not be able to post 7 days a week but i will keep you updated of my selections and returns and hopefully i will be able to post screen shots of my bets as proof.
Good luck and thanks for reading for now!
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