i had 4 backs today and 1 winner to break even. Saturdays results were ok, no winners but a couple placed, however these dont build up the bank... 3 lays for wednesday. i may also try a bit of trading..Betfair Balance 242
Kempton 3.15 Decider (< 3/1)
Lingfield 2.30 Cusoon (< 4/1)
Musselburgh 2.20 Transit (<>
Wednesday, 20 December 2006
Saturday, 16 December 2006
16 Dec 2006
No Lays. I did short list three but have decided against.For refernece they were Kilbeggan Blade - progressive and conditions to suit , Wee Charlie Castle - 50/50 so decided to be safe, Special Gold - again a touch and go one so i will leave it, i do think he will be outlcassed.
HS Backs
Kempton 4.20 Nou Camp
Lingfield 1.30 Poly Jones
Value Backs
Ascot 1.1o Fork Lightning >9/1
Fairyhouse 1.55 Cadogan >5/1
Haydock 2.35 Wild Cane Ridge > 2/1
Lingfield 2.40 Red Spell >5/2
HS Backs
Kempton 4.20 Nou Camp
Lingfield 1.30 Poly Jones
Value Backs
Ascot 1.1o Fork Lightning >9/1
Fairyhouse 1.55 Cadogan >5/1
Haydock 2.35 Wild Cane Ridge > 2/1
Lingfield 2.40 Red Spell >5/2
Downturn continues
Another bad day today. I suppose thats I we have a big bank!
one lay matched and duly lost. But the three backs all lost. I will however continue on for tomorrow as i have spotted a few nice priced value backs and if one comes in will do wonders for the betting bank. Betfair balance is 291.
one lay matched and duly lost. But the three backs all lost. I will however continue on for tomorrow as i have spotted a few nice priced value backs and if one comes in will do wonders for the betting bank. Betfair balance is 291.
Friday, 15 December 2006
15 Dec 2006
Betfair Balance is €311.80
Value Lays
A 2.00 Carilitos <4/1 - Reason Up in class and bad trainer form
K4.20 Larkys Lob <4/1 - Reason - Mainly due to time frame, needs 15 days minimum rest.
HS Backs
GP 1.45 Scalinis
W1.40 Came Back
Value Backs
Ascot 3.10 Pass Me a Dime > 8/1
Value Lays
A 2.00 Carilitos <4/1 - Reason Up in class and bad trainer form
K4.20 Larkys Lob <4/1 - Reason - Mainly due to time frame, needs 15 days minimum rest.
HS Backs
GP 1.45 Scalinis
W1.40 Came Back
Value Backs
Ascot 3.10 Pass Me a Dime > 8/1
Downturn
Another bad day at the office. i didn't not have time to post today but i have 3 lays and 2 HS backs. 2 lays were successful. the bad won won at 9/4 but i layed it at 11/4. the two HS backs were beat. One of them should not have been bet on due to the number of days absence from track but missed this due to looking at bets in the morning when half asleep..
On a positive note, Williams horse did the business, and won at 9/4 of course i never got to the bookies to place bet on this as i was having my christmas lunch at work and also for being still annoyed with my self for backing his other horse on wednesday when it had no chance...
To make matters worse i lasted 35 minutes at the poker tournament tonight. Again I was huge favourite after the flop with trip jacks and went all in with 2 others. one got running diamonds to get the flush after he had Ace king in the hole.
A bad days gambling all round. If tomorrow is like this I may take Saturday off to regain composure.
On a positive note, Williams horse did the business, and won at 9/4 of course i never got to the bookies to place bet on this as i was having my christmas lunch at work and also for being still annoyed with my self for backing his other horse on wednesday when it had no chance...
To make matters worse i lasted 35 minutes at the poker tournament tonight. Again I was huge favourite after the flop with trip jacks and went all in with 2 others. one got running diamonds to get the flush after he had Ace king in the hole.
A bad days gambling all round. If tomorrow is like this I may take Saturday off to regain composure.
Wednesday, 13 December 2006
HS Back
Well, the High Strike rate Backs seem to be living up to their name since i jigged the system a bit. 50% strike rate.. i know i know its only the first 2 days of the rejigged system so too early to call.
I backed at 2.6 but reduction factor meant price matched was reduced to 2.33 for a profit of 1.33 points. Betfairr balance now €341.44. As for my long shot, i suppose it was more a hopeful bet than anything else. im not going to be so stupid again. as betting is all about discipline, this was a stupid bet today.. However i will be keeping an eye on Williams runners in future and if they have good past form and are gone stale then the switch to his stable could pay dividends. i will not be counting this bet in my betfair balance as bet was made in my other account.
By the way just after checking and Williams has one runner tomorrow which he has taken under his charge. 2.40 in exeter , Pole Star. he has the class and will like the going however he has been installed as favourite, 11/4.
A bit tired now so i'll post up selections in the morning.
I backed at 2.6 but reduction factor meant price matched was reduced to 2.33 for a profit of 1.33 points. Betfairr balance now €341.44. As for my long shot, i suppose it was more a hopeful bet than anything else. im not going to be so stupid again. as betting is all about discipline, this was a stupid bet today.. However i will be keeping an eye on Williams runners in future and if they have good past form and are gone stale then the switch to his stable could pay dividends. i will not be counting this bet in my betfair balance as bet was made in my other account.
By the way just after checking and Williams has one runner tomorrow which he has taken under his charge. 2.40 in exeter , Pole Star. he has the class and will like the going however he has been installed as favourite, 11/4.
A bit tired now so i'll post up selections in the morning.
Tuesday, 12 December 2006
13 Dec 2006
Again no value lays or backs today.
One HS Back though
Ling 2.15 Artzola
I am going to have an value Each way bet to minimum stakes on Court Alliance tomorrow in the 1.20 in Newbury. Its a long shot but in a weak maiden and mircle trainer Evan Williams with first time out horses switched into his stables, its worth a punt. If you backed all his horses first time out after switching to his stables you would have a level stakes profit of 76 points since 2003. He has performed well on good to soft so hopefully he will take to soft and will be able to do better at the trip. This is more a hopeful punt then a confident back but at odds of 75 on betfair its definitely value.
One HS Back though
Ling 2.15 Artzola
I am going to have an value Each way bet to minimum stakes on Court Alliance tomorrow in the 1.20 in Newbury. Its a long shot but in a weak maiden and mircle trainer Evan Williams with first time out horses switched into his stables, its worth a punt. If you backed all his horses first time out after switching to his stables you would have a level stakes profit of 76 points since 2003. He has performed well on good to soft so hopefully he will take to soft and will be able to do better at the trip. This is more a hopeful punt then a confident back but at odds of 75 on betfair its definitely value.
1 from 3
Superrollercoaster does the business today, winner at 3/1. i however only got it matched at 5/2 on betfair before i went to work so a tiny profit of half a point today. I really should not have bet Leadaway, it didnt have a hope on that going. Red River Rebel came second. i think i m due a day where most of the selections come in. for one thing its definitely needed! Betfair balance is €328.53.
12 Dec 2006
HS Backs
South 2.30 Red River Rebel
Folk 12.10 Leadaway
Folk 2.40 Superrollercoaster
No value backs or lays tomorrow.
HS backs system has been revised, however looking over the form properly im not too confident in Leadaway, but then i look at what he's up against and none of them are heavy going performers so he may have a chance.
South 2.30 Red River Rebel
Folk 12.10 Leadaway
Folk 2.40 Superrollercoaster
No value backs or lays tomorrow.
HS backs system has been revised, however looking over the form properly im not too confident in Leadaway, but then i look at what he's up against and none of them are heavy going performers so he may have a chance.
Black Monday Again
It happened again. Another loss on a Monday! the lay had an easy win. i though some of the others would have put up a better fight.. The value back ended up not value but i had got on at value so in total i lost 3.3 points today. Betfair balance 324.
Tomorrows another day, but it looks like only revised HS backs. I will post under new post
Tomorrows another day, but it looks like only revised HS backs. I will post under new post
Monday, 11 December 2006
Winner alright
Well, In compliance did the business. I wont be counting it in my results as i didnt have it listed as a definite bet, plus i backed it in the bookies. Thankfully I have recouped my losses on Nine O from last week.
Too far back won as well in a cracking finish. 1 from 2 of the lays were successful, so betfair account only increased by just under 1 point today. Balance currently stands at €357.71.
Too far back won as well in a cracking finish. 1 from 2 of the lays were successful, so betfair account only increased by just under 1 point today. Balance currently stands at €357.71.
Sunday, 10 December 2006
10 Dec 2006
A good days racing in Ireland with two meetings on in Cork and Punchestown. A mouth watering prospect is the renewal of the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase where the line up includes luminaries such as War of Attrition, Hi Cloy, In Compliance, Justified and Nickname. War of attrition is worthy favourites but in such a high quality line up he is no certainity. His ideal conditions is 2 mile 6 and fresh where he has a strike rate of 5/5. He has had his 5 week minimum break which he needs to preform at his best. The only worry is the distance as he has only a 1/3 success rate at 2mile 4. Im expecting a big run from In Compliance whose trainer reckons this horse is better than people think. He will love the heavy going, distance and course. Nickname also looks interesting. He had an amazing start to his chasing career last year with two wins in Leopardstown including the Grade 2 event last january. He won first time out this season in Navan and with the booking of Ruby Walsh for thr first time, this could bring about the change necessary to wiin this Grade 1 event.
If I was to call it i would have to go for War of attrition however i would not back it as 2/1 is too short, so the value selection would have to be In Compliance if you could get on at 9/2. Nickname is too short at 7/2, I think 7/1 would be the right price. An honorably mention for Justified who is in with a shout but suspect trainer form would make me pass.
As it is a such a tight race, i will not decide if i will back In Compliance until tomorrow however the following are my definite bets.
Value Lays
Cork 1.45 Kill Devil Hill <4/1
Kempton 3.30 Moyoko < 4/1
HS Backs
None
Value Backs
Punchestown 3.05 Toofarback >5/2
This looks like the ideal opportunity for Too Far Back to accomplish his first chase win after 2 decent attempts in a higher class race than this and hopefully can eliminate those mistakes which cost him a place or two in his last race and his true class can show.
I have also back tested the HS backs system a bit more and had modified a few things which will reduce the selctions and hopefully keep the strike rate at around 35%.
If I was to call it i would have to go for War of attrition however i would not back it as 2/1 is too short, so the value selection would have to be In Compliance if you could get on at 9/2. Nickname is too short at 7/2, I think 7/1 would be the right price. An honorably mention for Justified who is in with a shout but suspect trainer form would make me pass.
As it is a such a tight race, i will not decide if i will back In Compliance until tomorrow however the following are my definite bets.
Value Lays
Cork 1.45 Kill Devil Hill <4/1
Kempton 3.30 Moyoko < 4/1
HS Backs
None
Value Backs
Punchestown 3.05 Toofarback >5/2
This looks like the ideal opportunity for Too Far Back to accomplish his first chase win after 2 decent attempts in a higher class race than this and hopefully can eliminate those mistakes which cost him a place or two in his last race and his true class can show.
I have also back tested the HS backs system a bit more and had modified a few things which will reduce the selctions and hopefully keep the strike rate at around 35%.
Saturday, 9 December 2006
Lay Pay Day
Well the three lays were all succesful today and at good value prices too.
So betfair Balance is now €348.
Im going to do some serious back testing on the HS system tonight because looking back at my results, i am in profit for the value lays and value backs but not the HS backs. I will also do up a results section.
But now, time to watch the premiership highlights!
So betfair Balance is now €348.
Im going to do some serious back testing on the HS system tonight because looking back at my results, i am in profit for the value lays and value backs but not the HS backs. I will also do up a results section.
But now, time to watch the premiership highlights!
9 Dec 2006
An unlucky day yesterday. Aces four came second and decent odds. My Will came 3rd but lost by a short head. I havent seen the race but from what i can gather he came very close. You would expect ruby walsh to close out one of those finishes.. Soverign Spirit rana disappointing race and from the comments in running he never really had a chance. possibly jockeys fault, but can t confirm that til i see the race. Betfair balance now a disappointing €320
Only Lays today.
Value Lays
Mr 1.15 Ever Special < 2/1
South 12.35 Mario Antonio < 4/1
South 2.50 Astronimical Odds<4/1
Only Lays today.
Value Lays
Mr 1.15 Ever Special < 2/1
South 12.35 Mario Antonio < 4/1
South 2.50 Astronimical Odds<4/1
Friday, 8 December 2006
8 Dec 2006
back from the poker tournament. Finished 12th out of 65 and absolutely sickened. The only pocket pair i got was pocket aces and i called all in to a fella with pocket six's. anyway the turn was a 6 so i was the very unlucky loser. i would off had 12000 chips going into the final table if i had of won that, instead i was out of there..sickened!
Tomorrows racing is quiet. No value lays or HS backs but i have 3 pretty decent Value backs
Value Backs
Chel 12.10 Aces Four >9/4
Chel 1.20 My Will >6/1
Wolv 3.20 Sovereign Spirit >4/1
Aces four is in a tough race and i would advise if the going gets softer than Good-soft then i would not back. however i will have bet placed regardless in the morning so hopefully ground wont go against. His chase wins have been in small fields and on a plus is the fact that he ahs won in Newcastle over the distance which is also a stiff course similiar to cheltenham. Also his jumping is improving with each race. At 5/1 this horse is value.
My Will may be tough to get ona t 6/1 seeing as ruby is on board. I think 6 is value in a pretty tough race but he is a course winner and im hoping the drop back in distance wont hinder him.
Sovereign Spirt looks like his in form. his last race was over an unsuitable distance carrying an extreme amount of weight over the winner zaville. he is on better terms today and back over his preferred trip. only negative is the inexperienced jockey but hopefully he will ride to orders and his has already rode 4 winners in his short career.
Tomorrows racing is quiet. No value lays or HS backs but i have 3 pretty decent Value backs
Value Backs
Chel 12.10 Aces Four >9/4
Chel 1.20 My Will >6/1
Wolv 3.20 Sovereign Spirit >4/1
Aces four is in a tough race and i would advise if the going gets softer than Good-soft then i would not back. however i will have bet placed regardless in the morning so hopefully ground wont go against. His chase wins have been in small fields and on a plus is the fact that he ahs won in Newcastle over the distance which is also a stiff course similiar to cheltenham. Also his jumping is improving with each race. At 5/1 this horse is value.
My Will may be tough to get ona t 6/1 seeing as ruby is on board. I think 6 is value in a pretty tough race but he is a course winner and im hoping the drop back in distance wont hinder him.
Sovereign Spirt looks like his in form. his last race was over an unsuitable distance carrying an extreme amount of weight over the winner zaville. he is on better terms today and back over his preferred trip. only negative is the inexperienced jockey but hopefully he will ride to orders and his has already rode 4 winners in his short career.
Thursday, 7 December 2006
Bad day at the office
Well, this week has been pretty dismal. I wonder is it the inclement weather which is causing all my back selections to lose. Again my Lay lost so happy with the strike rate of those, but im very very unhappy about Nine O. I lost 100 euro today on that horse. i didnt see the race but i heard he hit one fence badly and lost his action and didnt recover.
The HS Backs may need an overhaul. I need to do some serious back testing on the system and maybe implement a value betting strategy to it.
anyways my betfair account is 350 now, so im down 3 points today but still up 4 points from when i started.
So overall im still happy about how i select my value lays and value backs but need to do some more work on the HS backing System.
Tonight im off to play a poker tournament. I hope i can keep my discipline and make the final table at least.
The HS Backs may need an overhaul. I need to do some serious back testing on the system and maybe implement a value betting strategy to it.
anyways my betfair account is 350 now, so im down 3 points today but still up 4 points from when i started.
So overall im still happy about how i select my value lays and value backs but need to do some more work on the HS backing System.
Tonight im off to play a poker tournament. I hope i can keep my discipline and make the final table at least.
Wednesday, 6 December 2006
7 Dec 2006
Value Lays
Ludl 3.10 Brown Fox
HS Backs
Clon 2.35 Nine O
Wolv 3.45 Dressed to Dance
Wolv 5.50 Briannsta
Value Back
Hunt 1.30 See the Light >7/2
Nine O is running tomorrow. needless to say , he has a cracking chance.
Ludl 3.10 Brown Fox
HS Backs
Clon 2.35 Nine O
Wolv 3.45 Dressed to Dance
Wolv 5.50 Briannsta
Value Back
Hunt 1.30 See the Light >7/2
Nine O is running tomorrow. needless to say , he has a cracking chance.
Betfair Maintenance Malarky
Well Betfair were up to their usual tricks again today. Maintenance started at 4am and when i got up at 8.30, they were still at it. Therefore only some of my bets got matched today. One of my successful lays didn't get matched but either did 2 of the unsuccessful HS backs. 2.70 of my bet for Green Black was matched who came a decent 3rd. A lot of money must have been put on him today as he returned at 9/2. betfair balance stands at 381 after today.
Brave Inca won today and i am kinda kicking myself i didnt back him as it was a value bet.
Brave Inca won today and i am kinda kicking myself i didnt back him as it was a value bet.
Tuesday, 5 December 2006
6 Dec 2006
Hard to believe its the 6th of Dec already, so have to get cracking with making a bit of a leap in the betting bank. Fairy house is back on for the postponed card tomorrow. there is talk that asian maze may not run tomorrow as he might run in cheltenham next sat instead. we'll wait and see.
Selections for tomorrow are
Value Lays
Hexham 12.20 Lowsha Green <4/1
Wolves 6.20 Saltrio <4/1
HS Backs
Kempton 2.40 Task Complete
Kempton 3.40 Siraj
Wolves 5.20 Will He Wish
Value Backs
Fairyhouse 3.05 Green Back >9/1
I have looked over the HS system backs and have dropped two. I was going to drop Task Complete, but i think horse is going the right way and trainer has had 2 from 4 strike rate over the past 14 days and the race looks terribly weak. the distance is a worry.
Siraj has visor on for 2nd time today and is adaptable enough to get out of his bad draw. Will he wish and Siraj actually are very close to value bets so hopefully a good day tomorrow.
Green back looks solid too. Loves the conditions and is a stayer. Has won off this mark before and has been racing reasonably well the past few runs. Has won in this time of year before and only negative is the jockey who hasnt got a great strike rate. he has at least won a good few races and has some winning experience at fairyhouse.
Selections for tomorrow are
Value Lays
Hexham 12.20 Lowsha Green <4/1
Wolves 6.20 Saltrio <4/1
HS Backs
Kempton 2.40 Task Complete
Kempton 3.40 Siraj
Wolves 5.20 Will He Wish
Value Backs
Fairyhouse 3.05 Green Back >9/1
I have looked over the HS system backs and have dropped two. I was going to drop Task Complete, but i think horse is going the right way and trainer has had 2 from 4 strike rate over the past 14 days and the race looks terribly weak. the distance is a worry.
Siraj has visor on for 2nd time today and is adaptable enough to get out of his bad draw. Will he wish and Siraj actually are very close to value bets so hopefully a good day tomorrow.
Green back looks solid too. Loves the conditions and is a stayer. Has won off this mark before and has been racing reasonably well the past few runs. Has won in this time of year before and only negative is the jockey who hasnt got a great strike rate. he has at least won a good few races and has some winning experience at fairyhouse.
Tuesdays Action
No selections for tuesday. i just didnt have the time on Monday evening to do any analysis. looking back over todays racing, i probably would have made a point profit. Anyways i have a good few for tomorrow.
Monday, 4 December 2006
Black Monday
Not one winner today. all of the selections were from the new system. This maybe sounds as a warning sign as i should really have a look over these form wise before i post. i would not have bet on 5 of these selections today if i actually read the form, however that still means i would have picked 3 loosers anyways. Luckily i missed the first race so lost 4 points today. So disappointingly back under the 400 mark to 385. Tomorrows another day.
Sunday, 3 December 2006
4 Dec 2006
Value Lays
None
HS Backs
Ling 12.10 Goose Chase & Georges Flyer
1.10 Outer Hebrides & Marko Jadeo
2.40 Beauchamp Viceroy & Lordswood
Wolv 1.00 Star Fern
3.30 Tabago Reef
Value Backs
None
Not much on for tomorrow value wise. For the HS backs i will be staking half point on races with 2 selections and 1 point for the others.
None
HS Backs
Ling 12.10 Goose Chase & Georges Flyer
1.10 Outer Hebrides & Marko Jadeo
2.40 Beauchamp Viceroy & Lordswood
Wolv 1.00 Star Fern
3.30 Tabago Reef
Value Backs
None
Not much on for tomorrow value wise. For the HS backs i will be staking half point on races with 2 selections and 1 point for the others.
Wind rules!
Well, a disappointing day racing wise with the meet in fairyhouse abandoned. Also a disappointing day for my selections. However my 2 lays were successful, my value back bet was not matched and my two HS backs did not perform.
This all meant i broke even for the day, or down 50 cent to be totally honest. bank is still at 425.
I also looked over what i missed on saturday and I was probably lucky i took the day off as i would have been down around 2 points.
I also started playing poker again today on line, so i might start reporting on that when theres not much racing on. any ways i came 2nd in a 9 seater single table tournament to win a huge 13.50 dollars! I took a break for two weeks coz i went on tilt and lost my (small) bank roll. lesson now learnt i hope.
This all meant i broke even for the day, or down 50 cent to be totally honest. bank is still at 425.
I also looked over what i missed on saturday and I was probably lucky i took the day off as i would have been down around 2 points.
I also started playing poker again today on line, so i might start reporting on that when theres not much racing on. any ways i came 2nd in a 9 seater single table tournament to win a huge 13.50 dollars! I took a break for two weeks coz i went on tilt and lost my (small) bank roll. lesson now learnt i hope.
Backs
HS backs
Ling 3.20 carragh mia
Ilza
Value backs
Ling 2.50 Red spell >13/2
An honourable mention for brave inca in the 2.05 today. at 3/1 and with tony mccoy back on board, it represents value ina two horse race in my opinion however i m not sure whether to back it or not. Asian maze has a record of 9-11 in races over 2m2f and likes the going as well. also brave incas form in this race is not good. the only negative which stands out for asian maze is he has never won in a race field smaller than 7 runners. Also the gale force winds will bring out the battling qualities in these horses and if brave inca is fully fit after his much needed last run, then he has the extra gears to win the fight.. i may back him if i can get 7/2.
Ling 3.20 carragh mia
Ilza
Value backs
Ling 2.50 Red spell >13/2
An honourable mention for brave inca in the 2.05 today. at 3/1 and with tony mccoy back on board, it represents value ina two horse race in my opinion however i m not sure whether to back it or not. Asian maze has a record of 9-11 in races over 2m2f and likes the going as well. also brave incas form in this race is not good. the only negative which stands out for asian maze is he has never won in a race field smaller than 7 runners. Also the gale force winds will bring out the battling qualities in these horses and if brave inca is fully fit after his much needed last run, then he has the extra gears to win the fight.. i may back him if i can get 7/2.
3 Dec 2006
value Lays
Lingfield 11.50 Fastrac Boy <4/1
Lingfielg 3.20 Missie Bailey <4/1
Back Bets to follow shortley
Lingfield 11.50 Fastrac Boy <4/1
Lingfielg 3.20 Missie Bailey <4/1
Back Bets to follow shortley
results
no post uesterday due to feeing under the weather. Self inflicted .. Anyways, 2.5 points were made on Friday so bank at 425 now.
Friday, 1 December 2006
01 Dec 2006
Another quiet enough day.
Value lay
Lingfield 12.50 Shade Cozy <7/2
HS Backs
Exeter 2.45 Minella Tipperary
Vererka
Value Backs
Lingfield 12.50 Small Stakes >10/3
Small stakes looks like a good bet. He won last time out wearing first time visor. horses wearing headgear means two things. It either frightens the bejazus outta them and they end up blowing up half way through the race from the scare of not been able to see around them. Or on the other hand and this is only about 10% of the time it actually improves a horse. The one thing that we do know about headgear is that it is proven that a horse will actually run better wearing headgear on the second time out.
im backing the two HS back to level stakes. I think minella tipperary is a deserving favourite but he made heavy work of winning last time out, however course and distance winner means a lot here espcially proven on soft. Ververka last run was encouraging and the stiff track at exeter and soft going will bring his stamina out to the fore, well hopefully so this could be a good forecast opportunity.
The Lay should lose. he is outclassed in this race as said earlier small stakes look like a good bet of his lowly handicap mark.
Value lay
Lingfield 12.50 Shade Cozy <7/2
HS Backs
Exeter 2.45 Minella Tipperary
Vererka
Value Backs
Lingfield 12.50 Small Stakes >10/3
Small stakes looks like a good bet. He won last time out wearing first time visor. horses wearing headgear means two things. It either frightens the bejazus outta them and they end up blowing up half way through the race from the scare of not been able to see around them. Or on the other hand and this is only about 10% of the time it actually improves a horse. The one thing that we do know about headgear is that it is proven that a horse will actually run better wearing headgear on the second time out.
im backing the two HS back to level stakes. I think minella tipperary is a deserving favourite but he made heavy work of winning last time out, however course and distance winner means a lot here espcially proven on soft. Ververka last run was encouraging and the stiff track at exeter and soft going will bring his stamina out to the fore, well hopefully so this could be a good forecast opportunity.
The Lay should lose. he is outclassed in this race as said earlier small stakes look like a good bet of his lowly handicap mark.
Thursday, 30 November 2006
First Loss
Well it had to come! Today i was so excited about Nine O that I withdrew 100 of my non betting bank money and braved the rain and went to the bookies at lunch time where to find out he was declared a non runner after being backed in from 10's to 6's... what a bummer.
and to compound matters my single lay went and won and my value bet won but was not matched on Betfair. Collinstown then pulled up so i presume the weather today turned the ground totally bottemless in thurles..even more of a pity that Nine O didnt run. So a total loss on the day of 3 points. Betfair account now standing at €399.30.
I now have to contemplate playing soccer in the howling wind and rain so not a happy camper to say the least. Back later with tomorrows selections.
and to compound matters my single lay went and won and my value bet won but was not matched on Betfair. Collinstown then pulled up so i presume the weather today turned the ground totally bottemless in thurles..even more of a pity that Nine O didnt run. So a total loss on the day of 3 points. Betfair account now standing at €399.30.
I now have to contemplate playing soccer in the howling wind and rain so not a happy camper to say the least. Back later with tomorrows selections.
Wednesday, 29 November 2006
30 Nov 2006
Value Lays
Wincanton 3.10 Rosses Point <7/2
HS Backs
Thurles 1.45 Collinstown & Nine O
Value Backs
MR 1.50 Kilbeggan Blade >9/4
I dont think we'll get value on kilbeggan blade tomorrow. he's currently trading at 6/4. very short price considering he hs never ran at 3m4f before.
Liquidity is always a problem on the small race meets in ireland so i might have to back the HS backs in the bookies tomorrow. i'll see whats on offer on betfair in the morning. Nine O is looking like a seriously good bet. again the odds are crap on betfair at the moment. if i can get 7/1 i will be very happy. all his wins come on 9 -11 furlong right handed tracks with a run in of between 1 .5 and 2.5 furlongs and up hill finish (Since he went handicapping if you discount the one run for unsuitable ground - firm- his strike rate is 5/5). he is a seasonal performer and loves the muck. braddish is a small trainer so watch out for a major gamble tomorrow. this could be his chance to pay his wages for the year!
So in retrospect i will be betting on all these with my usual €10 stake but i will also be going to bookies to put a decent sized bet on Nine O.
Wincanton 3.10 Rosses Point <7/2
HS Backs
Thurles 1.45 Collinstown & Nine O
Value Backs
MR 1.50 Kilbeggan Blade >9/4
I dont think we'll get value on kilbeggan blade tomorrow. he's currently trading at 6/4. very short price considering he hs never ran at 3m4f before.
Liquidity is always a problem on the small race meets in ireland so i might have to back the HS backs in the bookies tomorrow. i'll see whats on offer on betfair in the morning. Nine O is looking like a seriously good bet. again the odds are crap on betfair at the moment. if i can get 7/1 i will be very happy. all his wins come on 9 -11 furlong right handed tracks with a run in of between 1 .5 and 2.5 furlongs and up hill finish (Since he went handicapping if you discount the one run for unsuitable ground - firm- his strike rate is 5/5). he is a seasonal performer and loves the muck. braddish is a small trainer so watch out for a major gamble tomorrow. this could be his chance to pay his wages for the year!
So in retrospect i will be betting on all these with my usual €10 stake but i will also be going to bookies to put a decent sized bet on Nine O.
profit again!
Another profitable day. this time only 1.6 points profit, or €16.81 to be exact. In summary 1 of my lys was matched and came nonwhere. My HS back won again. Im having agreat run with these at the moment. Only negative here was i took the early price of 1.7 and it returned at 2.25.. not to worrythough as i have been getting better than SP all week so i was due a change.. One of the value backs was a non runner and the other one as not matched.
current Betfair balance stands at €428.70.
I have been informed by a friend of how to add my betfair screen print but it involves getting photoshop, so im going see if i can get my hands on the software this evening.
current Betfair balance stands at €428.70.
I have been informed by a friend of how to add my betfair screen print but it involves getting photoshop, so im going see if i can get my hands on the software this evening.
Tuesday, 28 November 2006
29 Nov 2006
Value Lays
Kempton 4.50 Jordans Light (again) <3/1
Kempton 5.50 Hello Man < 4/1
HS Backs
Catterick 2.20 Flake
Value Backs Catterick 1.50 River Logic >5/1
Kempton 5.10 Lake Pontchartrain >5/1
Kempton 4.50 Jordans Light (again) <3/1
Kempton 5.50 Hello Man < 4/1
HS Backs
Catterick 2.20 Flake
Value Backs Catterick 1.50 River Logic >5/1
Kempton 5.10 Lake Pontchartrain >5/1
Profit again
Another decent days racing, but mainly thanks to better odds matched on betfair. To SP i would have made 0.4 or so points but i actaully made 2 points profit today. current betfair balance is €411.89. thats 10 clear points profit in 5 days.. i must admit i m very happy with the progress. i have also had some analysis done on my lay selections and i am pretty happy now that im reaching a level of consistency that will only benefit my betting portfolio. I can hope to make at least 10 points a month profit from my lays. If i could make 10 points each from my value backs and my HS backs then i will be a very happy man.. hopefuly the good run will continue so that i can reach 500 within the next 5 days..From then on I will be increasing my stake to 1/50th of the bank..
Once again i want to stress the importance of having a betting portfolio if you do not like long losing streaks. Of course you need winning methods or systems to keep afloat. I have a laying method and a backing method which produces my value backs and lays and i have a system i use for the HS backs. I have very little back testing done on the HS backs but im more than comfortable to back these at €1o a point. the big test will come if i can start getting the stake up to a higher amount, then the nerves will be tested.
I have been tryiing to post up screen prints of my betfair account but i havent been able to master it yet. i'll see if i can get it sorted at the weekend.
Once again i want to stress the importance of having a betting portfolio if you do not like long losing streaks. Of course you need winning methods or systems to keep afloat. I have a laying method and a backing method which produces my value backs and lays and i have a system i use for the HS backs. I have very little back testing done on the HS backs but im more than comfortable to back these at €1o a point. the big test will come if i can start getting the stake up to a higher amount, then the nerves will be tested.
I have been tryiing to post up screen prints of my betfair account but i havent been able to master it yet. i'll see if i can get it sorted at the weekend.
Monday, 27 November 2006
28 Nov 2006
i was going to ahve 3 lay s today but decided against one due to it been a course specialist(buscador) and the fact it had won after a long break before. i do think however that this is a stronger race then he is used to but will just leave it pass today.
Value Lays
S1.30 Strikeen <3/1
actually im only going to have one lay today.. the other one , leprechauns gold looks too high a price and its connections are good so again will pass.
HS Backs
L1.50 Desert Light
3.20 Sotik Star
S1.00 Bodden Bay
1.30 Shouldnt be there
Value Lays
S1.30 Strikeen <3/1
actually im only going to have one lay today.. the other one , leprechauns gold looks too high a price and its connections are good so again will pass.
HS Backs
L1.50 Desert Light
3.20 Sotik Star
S1.00 Bodden Bay
1.30 Shouldnt be there
nice!
Well, a good day was had today. Its nice to see the bank grow by 20%. it currently stands at €392. Todays profit was 5.9 points. the HS backs did the business with all 4 winning. the lays were disappointing but for some reason one of the lays was not matched so saved on 2 poiints! however my value back was matched even though it returned at 4/1. It came second .that's two days in a row now, but not too unhappy as they are all getting in the frame.
So currently up 8.2 points since commencement.
So currently up 8.2 points since commencement.
Sunday, 26 November 2006
27 Nov 2006
Value lays
Folk 12.30 Harcourt 4/1
2.00 The Hardy Boy <4/1
3.30 Maggie MAthias <7/2
Wolv 1.20 Blue Hedges <4/1
2.20 Saltrio <7/2
3.20 Keep your Distance <4/1
HS Backs
K 2.40 Mythical Charm
3.10 Africa Concerto/Siraj
3.40 Artrolu
W 2.50 essemer
Value backs
W1.20 Cumbrian Knight >5/1
Folk 12.30 Harcourt 4/1
2.00 The Hardy Boy <4/1
3.30 Maggie MAthias <7/2
Wolv 1.20 Blue Hedges <4/1
2.20 Saltrio <7/2
3.20 Keep your Distance <4/1
HS Backs
K 2.40 Mythical Charm
3.10 Africa Concerto/Siraj
3.40 Artrolu
W 2.50 essemer
Value backs
W1.20 Cumbrian Knight >5/1
small profit
results ok today. 2 lays lost as expected and gods token came 2nd but surprisingly did not use front running tactics. price drifted to 8/1 before the off but in all honesty was comfortably beaten by the winner.. manhatten boy won easy but i did not back due to short price. so made 1 point profit to day
betfair balance is €332. profit since start is 2.2 points. i would be extremely happy if i could make 3 points a week as once i start to increment the stake size the bank would grow very quickly.
betfair balance is €332. profit since start is 2.2 points. i would be extremely happy if i could make 3 points a week as once i start to increment the stake size the bank would grow very quickly.
Saturday, 25 November 2006
26 Nov 2006
Tomorrow is a quieter day thank god, so less work to do. After my costly mistakes yesterday i think i have identified two good lays for sunday.
Value Lays
F12.10 Beauchamp Star <7/2 L1.25 Sitting Duck <4/1
HS Backs N3.15 Diego Cao/Tessandora/Manhattan Boy Im unsure yet how i will structure this bet. If i can make 0.7 of a point from a dutch i may do that or else have hedging bets on the first two to cover main bet on Manhatten Boy.
Value Backs F1.45 Gods Token >7/2
he has never won at fontwell, but is a front runner so this course will give him every chance to win. he wins fresh and at 13/2 is defo value. trainer in good form and jockey has good strike rate for trainer. Its a competitive race though but as stated before there's definitely value there.
By the way Running total from commencement is +1.2 points
Value Lays
F12.10 Beauchamp Star <7/2 L1.25 Sitting Duck <4/1
HS Backs N3.15 Diego Cao/Tessandora/Manhattan Boy Im unsure yet how i will structure this bet. If i can make 0.7 of a point from a dutch i may do that or else have hedging bets on the first two to cover main bet on Manhatten Boy.
Value Backs F1.45 Gods Token >7/2
he has never won at fontwell, but is a front runner so this course will give him every chance to win. he wins fresh and at 13/2 is defo value. trainer in good form and jockey has good strike rate for trainer. Its a competitive race though but as stated before there's definitely value there.
By the way Running total from commencement is +1.2 points
So So day today
Today was a so so day.. im kinda kicking myself for selecting two lays which went and won today. However hindsight is great, anyways i have noted what went wrong and hopefully will not make the same mistake again. So today my Betfair balance stands at €323.12 so a profit of three points was made.
there were 11 lays today, one was not matched, 6 successful and 4 won, -2.3 points to SP.
3 HS backs, 1 non runner. 1 from 2 won for -0.1 loss to SP but a 0.4 profit to betfair
4 value backs today, 1 non runner, 1 from 3 won, returned 7/2 SP which was below value but i matched it at 6.0 for betfair profit of 3.7 points. this implies i only lost 1 point for the lays..it shows i got some very good value today on my lays even though they returned in a loss.
there were 11 lays today, one was not matched, 6 successful and 4 won, -2.3 points to SP.
3 HS backs, 1 non runner. 1 from 2 won for -0.1 loss to SP but a 0.4 profit to betfair
4 value backs today, 1 non runner, 1 from 3 won, returned 7/2 SP which was below value but i matched it at 6.0 for betfair profit of 3.7 points. this implies i only lost 1 point for the lays..it shows i got some very good value today on my lays even though they returned in a loss.
Day 2, busy day on Sat
A lot of selections so no small talk!
Value lays
3.50 Jordans light <4/1
4.50 Galaxy of stars <4/1
5.50 Neardownbeauty <4/1
1.30 Baylini <7/2
3.45 Afsoun <3/1
2.25 Shannon Pride <5/2
3.00 Neptune Collonges <7/2
1.15 Tabora <5/2
1.45 Bay Island <3/1
2.50 Apple Joe <2/1
HS Backs
ling 1.30 Cesc
Tow 1.15 Bonnets Peices
Value Backs
6.20 Reeling and Rocking >6/1
Newb 2.40 Vodka Bleu >5/1
3.45 See the Light >7/2
Newc 3.00 Fundamentalist >5/1
Im a bit worried about tomorrow. theres a lot of lays and if 2 of the higher priced ones come in, it will negate the profit of all the others.. anyways hopefully it will all be good come tomorrow evening. im pretty happy with the back selections. Espcially the value backs as there is some real value with these horses for tomorrow. the one selection i worry about is vodka bleu as it has never tackled this distance before. however he likes the track and was in great shape last time out after a long lay off so current price of 12/1 seems reasonable, hoping that he will improve on this run plus he goes wil for timmy murphy.
Value lays
3.50 Jordans light <4/1
4.50 Galaxy of stars <4/1
5.50 Neardownbeauty <4/1
1.30 Baylini <7/2
3.45 Afsoun <3/1
2.25 Shannon Pride <5/2
3.00 Neptune Collonges <7/2
1.15 Tabora <5/2
1.45 Bay Island <3/1
2.50 Apple Joe <2/1
HS Backs
ling 1.30 Cesc
Tow 1.15 Bonnets Peices
Value Backs
6.20 Reeling and Rocking >6/1
Newb 2.40 Vodka Bleu >5/1
3.45 See the Light >7/2
Newc 3.00 Fundamentalist >5/1
Im a bit worried about tomorrow. theres a lot of lays and if 2 of the higher priced ones come in, it will negate the profit of all the others.. anyways hopefully it will all be good come tomorrow evening. im pretty happy with the back selections. Espcially the value backs as there is some real value with these horses for tomorrow. the one selection i worry about is vodka bleu as it has never tackled this distance before. however he likes the track and was in great shape last time out after a long lay off so current price of 12/1 seems reasonable, hoping that he will improve on this run plus he goes wil for timmy murphy.
Friday, 24 November 2006
First day not off to such a great start!
Well 1 from 2 of the lays today. One bet was not matched.
HS backs, all three lost.
Value Backs, 3 qualified and one won for a profit of 1.5 points.
All this implies that Betfair balance now 292.
Results to SP were -1.2 points
Results to Betfair prices - 1.8 points
From what i can gather Mandarin Spirit was doing his best work near the finish line but got blocked in earlier in the race. As with all good systems, we start on a losing day with the HS backs;-)
Day off tomorrow so hope to sort out selections later and post. Saturdays are usually a good day for me so hopefully that will continue.
HS backs, all three lost.
Value Backs, 3 qualified and one won for a profit of 1.5 points.
All this implies that Betfair balance now 292.
Results to SP were -1.2 points
Results to Betfair prices - 1.8 points
From what i can gather Mandarin Spirit was doing his best work near the finish line but got blocked in earlier in the race. As with all good systems, we start on a losing day with the HS backs;-)
Day off tomorrow so hope to sort out selections later and post. Saturdays are usually a good day for me so hopefully that will continue.
Thursday, 23 November 2006
First Day, 24 Nov 2006
Day 1 of the punting for profits challenge.
Lays
Kemp 3.50 Bussel (<3/1)
5.20 Poseidon's Secret (<7/2)
Wolv 1.45 Situla (<4/1)
HS Backs
Kemp 6.20 Buy On The Red
Wolv 2.20 Matuza
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea/Kings Quay
Value Backs
Kemp 5.50 Mandarin Spirit (>=4/1)
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea (>=4/1)
Newb 1.00 Freeze The Frame (>=11/8)
Newb 2.40 Boychuk (>=13/8)
Hopefully a good day to start us off.
Lays
Kemp 3.50 Bussel (<3/1)
5.20 Poseidon's Secret (<7/2)
Wolv 1.45 Situla (<4/1)
HS Backs
Kemp 6.20 Buy On The Red
Wolv 2.20 Matuza
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea/Kings Quay
Value Backs
Kemp 5.50 Mandarin Spirit (>=4/1)
Muss 2.30 Saif Sareea (>=4/1)
Newb 1.00 Freeze The Frame (>=11/8)
Newb 2.40 Boychuk (>=13/8)
Hopefully a good day to start us off.
The Goal
The aim of this blog is to keep track of my daily horse racing bets. I am starting with a bank of €310 in my Betfair 1 account and my initial stakes are €10 which implies i have a 31 point bank. The reason i am comfortable with this relatively small sized bank is the high strike rate of both my back and lay selections . I would preferrably like to have a 50 point bank so if the need arises i will deposit an extra €190 into my Betfair account. Hopefully i will not have too. If and when my account goes above 500, i will start to increase my stake to 1/50th of the bank. If I go broke i will take a break and go back to the drawing board!
I have broken down my selections into 3 types
Value Lays
Value Backs
High Strike rate Backs (HS Backs for short)
For Value lays i will state the highest price that the selection can be layed at. I must admit i miss out on a few of my lays as i place my bets in the morning and sometimes they do not get matched as i place too low a price lay thinking the early markets are too generous to the backers even though it is still within my lay limit. The best time to lay is 5 minutes before the off as its when the prices most resembles the SP. Only when my stakes are €50 will i be able to phone in my selections at that time, so a bit to go yet! (I dont have internet access at work)
Value Backs Selections does as it says on the tin. I will back horses who i think are better value than they should be and i will advise a back price limit not to go under. The idea of value backs is to go against the crowd and be compensated with better odds when the selections win. Every professional punter believes in this philosophy. I usually do not have many of these bets a month but it is very rewarding when they do win.
HS Backs are something i stumbled on and is a system which produces a high strike rate with decent returns. There will be a few odds on selections and a few dutching bets but im hoping the high strike rate will compensate for the lack in perceived value of the odds.
Also i must warn that i may not be able to post 7 days a week but i will keep you updated of my selections and returns and hopefully i will be able to post screen shots of my bets as proof.
Good luck and thanks for reading for now!
I have broken down my selections into 3 types
Value Lays
Value Backs
High Strike rate Backs (HS Backs for short)
For Value lays i will state the highest price that the selection can be layed at. I must admit i miss out on a few of my lays as i place my bets in the morning and sometimes they do not get matched as i place too low a price lay thinking the early markets are too generous to the backers even though it is still within my lay limit. The best time to lay is 5 minutes before the off as its when the prices most resembles the SP. Only when my stakes are €50 will i be able to phone in my selections at that time, so a bit to go yet! (I dont have internet access at work)
Value Backs Selections does as it says on the tin. I will back horses who i think are better value than they should be and i will advise a back price limit not to go under. The idea of value backs is to go against the crowd and be compensated with better odds when the selections win. Every professional punter believes in this philosophy. I usually do not have many of these bets a month but it is very rewarding when they do win.
HS Backs are something i stumbled on and is a system which produces a high strike rate with decent returns. There will be a few odds on selections and a few dutching bets but im hoping the high strike rate will compensate for the lack in perceived value of the odds.
Also i must warn that i may not be able to post 7 days a week but i will keep you updated of my selections and returns and hopefully i will be able to post screen shots of my bets as proof.
Good luck and thanks for reading for now!
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