01 Dec 2006

Another quiet enough day.

Value lay
Lingfield 12.50 Shade Cozy <7/2

HS Backs
Exeter 2.45 Minella Tipperary
Vererka

Value Backs
Lingfield 12.50 Small Stakes >10/3

Small stakes looks like a good bet. He won last time out wearing first time visor. horses wearing headgear means two things. It either frightens the bejazus outta them and they end up blowing up half way through the race from the scare of not been able to see around them. Or on the other hand and this is only about 10% of the time it actually improves a horse. The one thing that we do know about headgear is that it is proven that a horse will actually run better wearing headgear on the second time out.

im backing the two HS back to level stakes. I think minella tipperary is a deserving favourite but he made heavy work of winning last time out, however course and distance winner means a lot here espcially proven on soft. Ververka last run was encouraging and the stiff track at exeter and soft going will bring his stamina out to the fore, well hopefully so this could be a good forecast opportunity.

The Lay should lose. he is outclassed in this race as said earlier small stakes look like a good bet of his lowly handicap mark.