i had 4 backs today and 1 winner to break even. Saturdays results were ok, no winners but a couple placed, however these dont build up the bank... 3 lays for wednesday. i may also try a bit of trading..Betfair Balance 242
Kempton 3.15 Decider (< 3/1)
Lingfield 2.30 Cusoon (< 4/1)
Musselburgh 2.20 Transit (<>
Wednesday, 20 December 2006
Saturday, 16 December 2006
16 Dec 2006
No Lays. I did short list three but have decided against.For refernece they were Kilbeggan Blade - progressive and conditions to suit , Wee Charlie Castle - 50/50 so decided to be safe, Special Gold - again a touch and go one so i will leave it, i do think he will be outlcassed.
HS Backs
Kempton 4.20 Nou Camp
Lingfield 1.30 Poly Jones
Value Backs
Ascot 1.1o Fork Lightning >9/1
Fairyhouse 1.55 Cadogan >5/1
Haydock 2.35 Wild Cane Ridge > 2/1
Lingfield 2.40 Red Spell >5/2
HS Backs
Kempton 4.20 Nou Camp
Lingfield 1.30 Poly Jones
Value Backs
Ascot 1.1o Fork Lightning >9/1
Fairyhouse 1.55 Cadogan >5/1
Haydock 2.35 Wild Cane Ridge > 2/1
Lingfield 2.40 Red Spell >5/2
Downturn continues
Another bad day today. I suppose thats I we have a big bank!
one lay matched and duly lost. But the three backs all lost. I will however continue on for tomorrow as i have spotted a few nice priced value backs and if one comes in will do wonders for the betting bank. Betfair balance is 291.
one lay matched and duly lost. But the three backs all lost. I will however continue on for tomorrow as i have spotted a few nice priced value backs and if one comes in will do wonders for the betting bank. Betfair balance is 291.
Friday, 15 December 2006
15 Dec 2006
Betfair Balance is €311.80
Value Lays
A 2.00 Carilitos <4/1 - Reason Up in class and bad trainer form
K4.20 Larkys Lob <4/1 - Reason - Mainly due to time frame, needs 15 days minimum rest.
HS Backs
GP 1.45 Scalinis
W1.40 Came Back
Value Backs
Ascot 3.10 Pass Me a Dime > 8/1
Value Lays
A 2.00 Carilitos <4/1 - Reason Up in class and bad trainer form
K4.20 Larkys Lob <4/1 - Reason - Mainly due to time frame, needs 15 days minimum rest.
HS Backs
GP 1.45 Scalinis
W1.40 Came Back
Value Backs
Ascot 3.10 Pass Me a Dime > 8/1
Downturn
Another bad day at the office. i didn't not have time to post today but i have 3 lays and 2 HS backs. 2 lays were successful. the bad won won at 9/4 but i layed it at 11/4. the two HS backs were beat. One of them should not have been bet on due to the number of days absence from track but missed this due to looking at bets in the morning when half asleep..
On a positive note, Williams horse did the business, and won at 9/4 of course i never got to the bookies to place bet on this as i was having my christmas lunch at work and also for being still annoyed with my self for backing his other horse on wednesday when it had no chance...
To make matters worse i lasted 35 minutes at the poker tournament tonight. Again I was huge favourite after the flop with trip jacks and went all in with 2 others. one got running diamonds to get the flush after he had Ace king in the hole.
A bad days gambling all round. If tomorrow is like this I may take Saturday off to regain composure.
On a positive note, Williams horse did the business, and won at 9/4 of course i never got to the bookies to place bet on this as i was having my christmas lunch at work and also for being still annoyed with my self for backing his other horse on wednesday when it had no chance...
To make matters worse i lasted 35 minutes at the poker tournament tonight. Again I was huge favourite after the flop with trip jacks and went all in with 2 others. one got running diamonds to get the flush after he had Ace king in the hole.
A bad days gambling all round. If tomorrow is like this I may take Saturday off to regain composure.
Wednesday, 13 December 2006
HS Back
Well, the High Strike rate Backs seem to be living up to their name since i jigged the system a bit. 50% strike rate.. i know i know its only the first 2 days of the rejigged system so too early to call.
I backed at 2.6 but reduction factor meant price matched was reduced to 2.33 for a profit of 1.33 points. Betfairr balance now €341.44. As for my long shot, i suppose it was more a hopeful bet than anything else. im not going to be so stupid again. as betting is all about discipline, this was a stupid bet today.. However i will be keeping an eye on Williams runners in future and if they have good past form and are gone stale then the switch to his stable could pay dividends. i will not be counting this bet in my betfair balance as bet was made in my other account.
By the way just after checking and Williams has one runner tomorrow which he has taken under his charge. 2.40 in exeter , Pole Star. he has the class and will like the going however he has been installed as favourite, 11/4.
A bit tired now so i'll post up selections in the morning.
I backed at 2.6 but reduction factor meant price matched was reduced to 2.33 for a profit of 1.33 points. Betfairr balance now €341.44. As for my long shot, i suppose it was more a hopeful bet than anything else. im not going to be so stupid again. as betting is all about discipline, this was a stupid bet today.. However i will be keeping an eye on Williams runners in future and if they have good past form and are gone stale then the switch to his stable could pay dividends. i will not be counting this bet in my betfair balance as bet was made in my other account.
By the way just after checking and Williams has one runner tomorrow which he has taken under his charge. 2.40 in exeter , Pole Star. he has the class and will like the going however he has been installed as favourite, 11/4.
A bit tired now so i'll post up selections in the morning.
Tuesday, 12 December 2006
13 Dec 2006
Again no value lays or backs today.
One HS Back though
Ling 2.15 Artzola
I am going to have an value Each way bet to minimum stakes on Court Alliance tomorrow in the 1.20 in Newbury. Its a long shot but in a weak maiden and mircle trainer Evan Williams with first time out horses switched into his stables, its worth a punt. If you backed all his horses first time out after switching to his stables you would have a level stakes profit of 76 points since 2003. He has performed well on good to soft so hopefully he will take to soft and will be able to do better at the trip. This is more a hopeful punt then a confident back but at odds of 75 on betfair its definitely value.
One HS Back though
Ling 2.15 Artzola
I am going to have an value Each way bet to minimum stakes on Court Alliance tomorrow in the 1.20 in Newbury. Its a long shot but in a weak maiden and mircle trainer Evan Williams with first time out horses switched into his stables, its worth a punt. If you backed all his horses first time out after switching to his stables you would have a level stakes profit of 76 points since 2003. He has performed well on good to soft so hopefully he will take to soft and will be able to do better at the trip. This is more a hopeful punt then a confident back but at odds of 75 on betfair its definitely value.
1 from 3
Superrollercoaster does the business today, winner at 3/1. i however only got it matched at 5/2 on betfair before i went to work so a tiny profit of half a point today. I really should not have bet Leadaway, it didnt have a hope on that going. Red River Rebel came second. i think i m due a day where most of the selections come in. for one thing its definitely needed! Betfair balance is €328.53.
12 Dec 2006
HS Backs
South 2.30 Red River Rebel
Folk 12.10 Leadaway
Folk 2.40 Superrollercoaster
No value backs or lays tomorrow.
HS backs system has been revised, however looking over the form properly im not too confident in Leadaway, but then i look at what he's up against and none of them are heavy going performers so he may have a chance.
South 2.30 Red River Rebel
Folk 12.10 Leadaway
Folk 2.40 Superrollercoaster
No value backs or lays tomorrow.
HS backs system has been revised, however looking over the form properly im not too confident in Leadaway, but then i look at what he's up against and none of them are heavy going performers so he may have a chance.
Black Monday Again
It happened again. Another loss on a Monday! the lay had an easy win. i though some of the others would have put up a better fight.. The value back ended up not value but i had got on at value so in total i lost 3.3 points today. Betfair balance 324.
Tomorrows another day, but it looks like only revised HS backs. I will post under new post
Tomorrows another day, but it looks like only revised HS backs. I will post under new post
Monday, 11 December 2006
Winner alright
Well, In compliance did the business. I wont be counting it in my results as i didnt have it listed as a definite bet, plus i backed it in the bookies. Thankfully I have recouped my losses on Nine O from last week.
Too far back won as well in a cracking finish. 1 from 2 of the lays were successful, so betfair account only increased by just under 1 point today. Balance currently stands at €357.71.
Too far back won as well in a cracking finish. 1 from 2 of the lays were successful, so betfair account only increased by just under 1 point today. Balance currently stands at €357.71.
Sunday, 10 December 2006
10 Dec 2006
A good days racing in Ireland with two meetings on in Cork and Punchestown. A mouth watering prospect is the renewal of the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase where the line up includes luminaries such as War of Attrition, Hi Cloy, In Compliance, Justified and Nickname. War of attrition is worthy favourites but in such a high quality line up he is no certainity. His ideal conditions is 2 mile 6 and fresh where he has a strike rate of 5/5. He has had his 5 week minimum break which he needs to preform at his best. The only worry is the distance as he has only a 1/3 success rate at 2mile 4. Im expecting a big run from In Compliance whose trainer reckons this horse is better than people think. He will love the heavy going, distance and course. Nickname also looks interesting. He had an amazing start to his chasing career last year with two wins in Leopardstown including the Grade 2 event last january. He won first time out this season in Navan and with the booking of Ruby Walsh for thr first time, this could bring about the change necessary to wiin this Grade 1 event.
If I was to call it i would have to go for War of attrition however i would not back it as 2/1 is too short, so the value selection would have to be In Compliance if you could get on at 9/2. Nickname is too short at 7/2, I think 7/1 would be the right price. An honorably mention for Justified who is in with a shout but suspect trainer form would make me pass.
As it is a such a tight race, i will not decide if i will back In Compliance until tomorrow however the following are my definite bets.
Value Lays
Cork 1.45 Kill Devil Hill <4/1
Kempton 3.30 Moyoko < 4/1
HS Backs
None
Value Backs
Punchestown 3.05 Toofarback >5/2
This looks like the ideal opportunity for Too Far Back to accomplish his first chase win after 2 decent attempts in a higher class race than this and hopefully can eliminate those mistakes which cost him a place or two in his last race and his true class can show.
I have also back tested the HS backs system a bit more and had modified a few things which will reduce the selctions and hopefully keep the strike rate at around 35%.
If I was to call it i would have to go for War of attrition however i would not back it as 2/1 is too short, so the value selection would have to be In Compliance if you could get on at 9/2. Nickname is too short at 7/2, I think 7/1 would be the right price. An honorably mention for Justified who is in with a shout but suspect trainer form would make me pass.
As it is a such a tight race, i will not decide if i will back In Compliance until tomorrow however the following are my definite bets.
Value Lays
Cork 1.45 Kill Devil Hill <4/1
Kempton 3.30 Moyoko < 4/1
HS Backs
None
Value Backs
Punchestown 3.05 Toofarback >5/2
This looks like the ideal opportunity for Too Far Back to accomplish his first chase win after 2 decent attempts in a higher class race than this and hopefully can eliminate those mistakes which cost him a place or two in his last race and his true class can show.
I have also back tested the HS backs system a bit more and had modified a few things which will reduce the selctions and hopefully keep the strike rate at around 35%.
Saturday, 9 December 2006
Lay Pay Day
Well the three lays were all succesful today and at good value prices too.
So betfair Balance is now €348.
Im going to do some serious back testing on the HS system tonight because looking back at my results, i am in profit for the value lays and value backs but not the HS backs. I will also do up a results section.
But now, time to watch the premiership highlights!
So betfair Balance is now €348.
Im going to do some serious back testing on the HS system tonight because looking back at my results, i am in profit for the value lays and value backs but not the HS backs. I will also do up a results section.
But now, time to watch the premiership highlights!
9 Dec 2006
An unlucky day yesterday. Aces four came second and decent odds. My Will came 3rd but lost by a short head. I havent seen the race but from what i can gather he came very close. You would expect ruby walsh to close out one of those finishes.. Soverign Spirit rana disappointing race and from the comments in running he never really had a chance. possibly jockeys fault, but can t confirm that til i see the race. Betfair balance now a disappointing €320
Only Lays today.
Value Lays
Mr 1.15 Ever Special < 2/1
South 12.35 Mario Antonio < 4/1
South 2.50 Astronimical Odds<4/1
Only Lays today.
Value Lays
Mr 1.15 Ever Special < 2/1
South 12.35 Mario Antonio < 4/1
South 2.50 Astronimical Odds<4/1
Friday, 8 December 2006
8 Dec 2006
back from the poker tournament. Finished 12th out of 65 and absolutely sickened. The only pocket pair i got was pocket aces and i called all in to a fella with pocket six's. anyway the turn was a 6 so i was the very unlucky loser. i would off had 12000 chips going into the final table if i had of won that, instead i was out of there..sickened!
Tomorrows racing is quiet. No value lays or HS backs but i have 3 pretty decent Value backs
Value Backs
Chel 12.10 Aces Four >9/4
Chel 1.20 My Will >6/1
Wolv 3.20 Sovereign Spirit >4/1
Aces four is in a tough race and i would advise if the going gets softer than Good-soft then i would not back. however i will have bet placed regardless in the morning so hopefully ground wont go against. His chase wins have been in small fields and on a plus is the fact that he ahs won in Newcastle over the distance which is also a stiff course similiar to cheltenham. Also his jumping is improving with each race. At 5/1 this horse is value.
My Will may be tough to get ona t 6/1 seeing as ruby is on board. I think 6 is value in a pretty tough race but he is a course winner and im hoping the drop back in distance wont hinder him.
Sovereign Spirt looks like his in form. his last race was over an unsuitable distance carrying an extreme amount of weight over the winner zaville. he is on better terms today and back over his preferred trip. only negative is the inexperienced jockey but hopefully he will ride to orders and his has already rode 4 winners in his short career.
Tomorrows racing is quiet. No value lays or HS backs but i have 3 pretty decent Value backs
Value Backs
Chel 12.10 Aces Four >9/4
Chel 1.20 My Will >6/1
Wolv 3.20 Sovereign Spirit >4/1
Aces four is in a tough race and i would advise if the going gets softer than Good-soft then i would not back. however i will have bet placed regardless in the morning so hopefully ground wont go against. His chase wins have been in small fields and on a plus is the fact that he ahs won in Newcastle over the distance which is also a stiff course similiar to cheltenham. Also his jumping is improving with each race. At 5/1 this horse is value.
My Will may be tough to get ona t 6/1 seeing as ruby is on board. I think 6 is value in a pretty tough race but he is a course winner and im hoping the drop back in distance wont hinder him.
Sovereign Spirt looks like his in form. his last race was over an unsuitable distance carrying an extreme amount of weight over the winner zaville. he is on better terms today and back over his preferred trip. only negative is the inexperienced jockey but hopefully he will ride to orders and his has already rode 4 winners in his short career.
Thursday, 7 December 2006
Bad day at the office
Well, this week has been pretty dismal. I wonder is it the inclement weather which is causing all my back selections to lose. Again my Lay lost so happy with the strike rate of those, but im very very unhappy about Nine O. I lost 100 euro today on that horse. i didnt see the race but i heard he hit one fence badly and lost his action and didnt recover.
The HS Backs may need an overhaul. I need to do some serious back testing on the system and maybe implement a value betting strategy to it.
anyways my betfair account is 350 now, so im down 3 points today but still up 4 points from when i started.
So overall im still happy about how i select my value lays and value backs but need to do some more work on the HS backing System.
Tonight im off to play a poker tournament. I hope i can keep my discipline and make the final table at least.
The HS Backs may need an overhaul. I need to do some serious back testing on the system and maybe implement a value betting strategy to it.
anyways my betfair account is 350 now, so im down 3 points today but still up 4 points from when i started.
So overall im still happy about how i select my value lays and value backs but need to do some more work on the HS backing System.
Tonight im off to play a poker tournament. I hope i can keep my discipline and make the final table at least.
Wednesday, 6 December 2006
7 Dec 2006
Value Lays
Ludl 3.10 Brown Fox
HS Backs
Clon 2.35 Nine O
Wolv 3.45 Dressed to Dance
Wolv 5.50 Briannsta
Value Back
Hunt 1.30 See the Light >7/2
Nine O is running tomorrow. needless to say , he has a cracking chance.
Ludl 3.10 Brown Fox
HS Backs
Clon 2.35 Nine O
Wolv 3.45 Dressed to Dance
Wolv 5.50 Briannsta
Value Back
Hunt 1.30 See the Light >7/2
Nine O is running tomorrow. needless to say , he has a cracking chance.
Betfair Maintenance Malarky
Well Betfair were up to their usual tricks again today. Maintenance started at 4am and when i got up at 8.30, they were still at it. Therefore only some of my bets got matched today. One of my successful lays didn't get matched but either did 2 of the unsuccessful HS backs. 2.70 of my bet for Green Black was matched who came a decent 3rd. A lot of money must have been put on him today as he returned at 9/2. betfair balance stands at 381 after today.
Brave Inca won today and i am kinda kicking myself i didnt back him as it was a value bet.
Brave Inca won today and i am kinda kicking myself i didnt back him as it was a value bet.
Tuesday, 5 December 2006
6 Dec 2006
Hard to believe its the 6th of Dec already, so have to get cracking with making a bit of a leap in the betting bank. Fairy house is back on for the postponed card tomorrow. there is talk that asian maze may not run tomorrow as he might run in cheltenham next sat instead. we'll wait and see.
Selections for tomorrow are
Value Lays
Hexham 12.20 Lowsha Green <4/1
Wolves 6.20 Saltrio <4/1
HS Backs
Kempton 2.40 Task Complete
Kempton 3.40 Siraj
Wolves 5.20 Will He Wish
Value Backs
Fairyhouse 3.05 Green Back >9/1
I have looked over the HS system backs and have dropped two. I was going to drop Task Complete, but i think horse is going the right way and trainer has had 2 from 4 strike rate over the past 14 days and the race looks terribly weak. the distance is a worry.
Siraj has visor on for 2nd time today and is adaptable enough to get out of his bad draw. Will he wish and Siraj actually are very close to value bets so hopefully a good day tomorrow.
Green back looks solid too. Loves the conditions and is a stayer. Has won off this mark before and has been racing reasonably well the past few runs. Has won in this time of year before and only negative is the jockey who hasnt got a great strike rate. he has at least won a good few races and has some winning experience at fairyhouse.
Selections for tomorrow are
Value Lays
Hexham 12.20 Lowsha Green <4/1
Wolves 6.20 Saltrio <4/1
HS Backs
Kempton 2.40 Task Complete
Kempton 3.40 Siraj
Wolves 5.20 Will He Wish
Value Backs
Fairyhouse 3.05 Green Back >9/1
I have looked over the HS system backs and have dropped two. I was going to drop Task Complete, but i think horse is going the right way and trainer has had 2 from 4 strike rate over the past 14 days and the race looks terribly weak. the distance is a worry.
Siraj has visor on for 2nd time today and is adaptable enough to get out of his bad draw. Will he wish and Siraj actually are very close to value bets so hopefully a good day tomorrow.
Green back looks solid too. Loves the conditions and is a stayer. Has won off this mark before and has been racing reasonably well the past few runs. Has won in this time of year before and only negative is the jockey who hasnt got a great strike rate. he has at least won a good few races and has some winning experience at fairyhouse.
Tuesdays Action
No selections for tuesday. i just didnt have the time on Monday evening to do any analysis. looking back over todays racing, i probably would have made a point profit. Anyways i have a good few for tomorrow.
Monday, 4 December 2006
Black Monday
Not one winner today. all of the selections were from the new system. This maybe sounds as a warning sign as i should really have a look over these form wise before i post. i would not have bet on 5 of these selections today if i actually read the form, however that still means i would have picked 3 loosers anyways. Luckily i missed the first race so lost 4 points today. So disappointingly back under the 400 mark to 385. Tomorrows another day.
Sunday, 3 December 2006
4 Dec 2006
Value Lays
None
HS Backs
Ling 12.10 Goose Chase & Georges Flyer
1.10 Outer Hebrides & Marko Jadeo
2.40 Beauchamp Viceroy & Lordswood
Wolv 1.00 Star Fern
3.30 Tabago Reef
Value Backs
None
Not much on for tomorrow value wise. For the HS backs i will be staking half point on races with 2 selections and 1 point for the others.
None
HS Backs
Ling 12.10 Goose Chase & Georges Flyer
1.10 Outer Hebrides & Marko Jadeo
2.40 Beauchamp Viceroy & Lordswood
Wolv 1.00 Star Fern
3.30 Tabago Reef
Value Backs
None
Not much on for tomorrow value wise. For the HS backs i will be staking half point on races with 2 selections and 1 point for the others.
Wind rules!
Well, a disappointing day racing wise with the meet in fairyhouse abandoned. Also a disappointing day for my selections. However my 2 lays were successful, my value back bet was not matched and my two HS backs did not perform.
This all meant i broke even for the day, or down 50 cent to be totally honest. bank is still at 425.
I also looked over what i missed on saturday and I was probably lucky i took the day off as i would have been down around 2 points.
I also started playing poker again today on line, so i might start reporting on that when theres not much racing on. any ways i came 2nd in a 9 seater single table tournament to win a huge 13.50 dollars! I took a break for two weeks coz i went on tilt and lost my (small) bank roll. lesson now learnt i hope.
This all meant i broke even for the day, or down 50 cent to be totally honest. bank is still at 425.
I also looked over what i missed on saturday and I was probably lucky i took the day off as i would have been down around 2 points.
I also started playing poker again today on line, so i might start reporting on that when theres not much racing on. any ways i came 2nd in a 9 seater single table tournament to win a huge 13.50 dollars! I took a break for two weeks coz i went on tilt and lost my (small) bank roll. lesson now learnt i hope.
Backs
HS backs
Ling 3.20 carragh mia
Ilza
Value backs
Ling 2.50 Red spell >13/2
An honourable mention for brave inca in the 2.05 today. at 3/1 and with tony mccoy back on board, it represents value ina two horse race in my opinion however i m not sure whether to back it or not. Asian maze has a record of 9-11 in races over 2m2f and likes the going as well. also brave incas form in this race is not good. the only negative which stands out for asian maze is he has never won in a race field smaller than 7 runners. Also the gale force winds will bring out the battling qualities in these horses and if brave inca is fully fit after his much needed last run, then he has the extra gears to win the fight.. i may back him if i can get 7/2.
Ling 3.20 carragh mia
Ilza
Value backs
Ling 2.50 Red spell >13/2
An honourable mention for brave inca in the 2.05 today. at 3/1 and with tony mccoy back on board, it represents value ina two horse race in my opinion however i m not sure whether to back it or not. Asian maze has a record of 9-11 in races over 2m2f and likes the going as well. also brave incas form in this race is not good. the only negative which stands out for asian maze is he has never won in a race field smaller than 7 runners. Also the gale force winds will bring out the battling qualities in these horses and if brave inca is fully fit after his much needed last run, then he has the extra gears to win the fight.. i may back him if i can get 7/2.
3 Dec 2006
value Lays
Lingfield 11.50 Fastrac Boy <4/1
Lingfielg 3.20 Missie Bailey <4/1
Back Bets to follow shortley
Lingfield 11.50 Fastrac Boy <4/1
Lingfielg 3.20 Missie Bailey <4/1
Back Bets to follow shortley
results
no post uesterday due to feeing under the weather. Self inflicted .. Anyways, 2.5 points were made on Friday so bank at 425 now.
Friday, 1 December 2006
01 Dec 2006
Another quiet enough day.
Value lay
Lingfield 12.50 Shade Cozy <7/2
HS Backs
Exeter 2.45 Minella Tipperary
Vererka
Value Backs
Lingfield 12.50 Small Stakes >10/3
Small stakes looks like a good bet. He won last time out wearing first time visor. horses wearing headgear means two things. It either frightens the bejazus outta them and they end up blowing up half way through the race from the scare of not been able to see around them. Or on the other hand and this is only about 10% of the time it actually improves a horse. The one thing that we do know about headgear is that it is proven that a horse will actually run better wearing headgear on the second time out.
im backing the two HS back to level stakes. I think minella tipperary is a deserving favourite but he made heavy work of winning last time out, however course and distance winner means a lot here espcially proven on soft. Ververka last run was encouraging and the stiff track at exeter and soft going will bring his stamina out to the fore, well hopefully so this could be a good forecast opportunity.
The Lay should lose. he is outclassed in this race as said earlier small stakes look like a good bet of his lowly handicap mark.
Value lay
Lingfield 12.50 Shade Cozy <7/2
HS Backs
Exeter 2.45 Minella Tipperary
Vererka
Value Backs
Lingfield 12.50 Small Stakes >10/3
Small stakes looks like a good bet. He won last time out wearing first time visor. horses wearing headgear means two things. It either frightens the bejazus outta them and they end up blowing up half way through the race from the scare of not been able to see around them. Or on the other hand and this is only about 10% of the time it actually improves a horse. The one thing that we do know about headgear is that it is proven that a horse will actually run better wearing headgear on the second time out.
im backing the two HS back to level stakes. I think minella tipperary is a deserving favourite but he made heavy work of winning last time out, however course and distance winner means a lot here espcially proven on soft. Ververka last run was encouraging and the stiff track at exeter and soft going will bring his stamina out to the fore, well hopefully so this could be a good forecast opportunity.
The Lay should lose. he is outclassed in this race as said earlier small stakes look like a good bet of his lowly handicap mark.
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