quiet

No views today..

Leopardstown

I spent part of the day in leopardstown. A pretty cold day but made all the better by the fact that i was too fuzzy headed from the night before to drive so i walked over t0 the course( I live pretty near) and on the way a taxi driver stopped and gave me and my friend free tickets to the reserved enclosure. A nice way to start the day.. I thought my luck was in . These were my planned bets for the day

1.50 Schindlers Hunt, Win 1st 8/13
2.20 Macs Flamingo, EW 9/1 4th
2.50 Brave Inca, Win 11/8 2nd
3.25 Kazal, Win 11/4 1st


However i ended up doing this due to ill advice from a respected friend/source of mine.

1.50 Vintage Treasure E/W - 12/1 UP - 40
2.20 Macs Flamingo E/W - 9/1 4th -40
2.50 Brave Inca Win - 11/8 2nd -50
3.25 Kazal Win - 11/4 1st ( i backed at 7/2) +175

I ended the day €35 up.

the whole reason i changed my mind on Schindler's Hunt was the fact that the odds available were 8/11 so i thought id better look for value and when my mate told me he had backed Vintage treasure and backed him ante post for the arkle i said what the heck, lets go with it.

If i had backed Schindlers hunt i would have been 115 up, so a costly mistake on my part.

Anyways a good day out was had. I didn't stay for the last 2 races as the cold was getting to me and i didn't fancy anything. Also the headache from the night before was not dissipating (even after a few cures!)

thursday Gowran

The grade 3 hurdle in gowran park looks like a one horse race. The winner will be Celestial Wave. loves the ground and distance, good jockey on board, up and coming trainer who thinks horse is a 'superstar' and who are we to doubt! odds are pretty skinny, but i cannot see this horse beaten. 2 points win on this if i get the better side of evens

The 3.25 novice chase looks exciting. its between the tp three in the market but my vote goes to Toofarback, because ofo the form lines and i think he is dropping in class for this race. 11/4 also looks like good value to me. A two point bet here also .

As for the Thyestes, its very tough this year.Theres a lot of hype around Kitsi and he also has some good form lines but its hard to call.

Thurles Tuesday!

Same bets as last week except no our ben this time.

Thurles 1,45. Cleini is favourite as he is the class horse in the race by a long shot. However he has only won on good and never tried at today's distance. Hopefully there will be a few non runners tomorrow as he seems to prefer big field sizes. Pontium is the value bet. 8/1 seems very good value for a horse who is one of the only ones to have won at this distance and also a course winner. I'm going to have a point each way on this one.

Gazza's girl in the 3.15 should outclass the rest so 1 point win here if i can get 2/1. his jumping is suspect though so defo need some value here before i bet.

Saturday in Naas

Hi just a quick post. i have two selections today in naas which ireally fancy. As you know naas is one the stiffest tracks in ireland with its 4 furlong uphill finish, there fore im going for horses today who have ither won here or have won on something similiar.

2.15 Chelsea Harbour - I should have backed this last time out in Naas, but didnt and the win that day reprrsents he can handle the course and looks progressive. Basically this is a value each way bet. 10/1.

2.45 Sophist - didnt run at all in last race. this horse has class compare to others in this race. his price is tumbling but i think he has all the conditions in his favour roday. He has won t fairy house which has a three furlong slight uphill run in so hopefully thats a good guide that he has stamina and of course loves the muck. Trainer has small stable and this is one of his stars. Back to win. currently trading at 4.2.

I cashed for the first time at a live poker tournament last night which was very nice, so i intend to keep up the poker again for a while longer

Thurles thursday

Thurles 1,45. Cleini is favourite as he is the class horse in the race by a long shot. However he has only won on good and never tried at today's distance. Hopefully there will be a few non runners tomorrow as he seems to prefer big field sizes. Pontium is the value bet. 8/1 seems very good value for a horse who is one of the only ones to have won at this distance and also a course winner. I'm going to have a point each way on this one.

I'm going to have half a point each way on our Ben in the grade 2 chase. looks in good form and if he can have a clear round he will come close to forget the past.

Gazza's girl in the 3.15 should outclass the rest so 1 point win here if i can get 2/1.

Wednesday 17 Jan 2006

No bet on tuesday as no value. None for tomorrow either. The whisperer looks like a banker but odds are too low at 1.55.

16 Jan 2006

A good winner today. It returned at 9/4 which was very good odds for a 2 horse race in my opinion.

Tomorrow Superrollercoaster is running in the 3.20 at Folkstone. I will back if i can get 7/2. Radcliffe may be a danger in this race as williams is in unreal form and had a tremendous record at folkstone over fences. Reason i will not back though is horses record in race sizes bigger than 6.

Monday

No bets today horseracing wise. I did lay hearts and regina using a seperate account.

Tomorrow i have a fancy for Santando in the 1.30 in plumpton. 2/1 seems fair in a two horse race. Wingman is too short at 11/10.

Saturday

You sir looks the one to beat in the first in Punchestown. Forget the past is the only danger, but he has been delayed coming back this year so somethings not right with him. This hurdle race looks like a tester to him to see how he is. I m not betting here until i see the odds tomorrow. 6/4 or better probably for You Sir.

kempton 1.30 - prince ary > 6/4.
2.10 barber shop
2.45 Ferimon E/W

Wetherby 1.15 Canada street

maybe more tomorrow. too tired now...

friday

I had one bet today, Elgar in the handicap chase in huntington. I did not post the selction as i really didnt think i would bet my bet matched. it was trading at 3.5 and i left an order for 4. anyways he won and returned at 4/1. I couldnt belive he returned at such a price. That means my bank is at 360 now.

Result

Bad call today, but not too cut up about it. I ddnt think it would get matched but it did at 3.10. I should really have dutched holy tree and fred benefits or maybe not betat all as the winner wasnt really jumping out the page at me.

Limerick

The first race in Limerick is aNovice Hurdle. Only three really in this unles some major mishap. They are all very close and a case can be made for all the first tree in the market. Holy tree in dropping in class but has a severe case of seconditis at the moment and i belive he would prefer a flatter track. Farmer jack looks like he will go close but his trainer record of 0/18 over hurdles doesnt instil confidence and triner form not great. Im siding with Freds Benefit. He is taking a step up in class but performed well in limerick the last day and did nearly lose the jockey at he last so would have probably won by more only for that. Also look at mullins record in limerick 42% and with ruby on board gets the nodd in what could be a great finish. I may only back though if i get 3.10 or better.

Havent time to look at British races.

Soccer

I had no racing bets today but i did back Aberdeen and Dunfermline to be greater than 2.5 goals. Made 20 quid. I also did a small trade on the Getaffe Valencia game in the under 2.5 goal market to make 4 quid. Bank slowly but surely back in profit! €324!

Non runners

My two short listed horses were non runners today. I looked over Wincanton races but nothing clear stands out so no bets for wednesday.

9 Jan 2007

3.05 sedgefield 27 Furlong Heavy

The following i am discounted
Wilie the fish - distance and going
Amber light - form and going
Nectar de Guye - Seconditis and better mud lovers in the race
Its definite - top weight on heavy ground for good ground horse
Uneven Line - Distance - if race was 3 furlong shorter this would be ideal.
Sailor a Hoy - Distance and form

This leaves 2 for the shortlist
Jballingall - Bottom weight, course and distance winner on heavy ground. Likes a test of stamina, trainer has 1/2 record here over chase jumps and jockey has high strike rate for trainer. Has won in Hexham and sedgefield, both of which are stiff tracks.Trainer had a 100/1 second place during the week, so hopefully its a sigh he is in good form. came 3rd in a 2 mile race last time out so current form is good.

Cinnamon Line - likes heavy going and in good form. Small time Trainer has had 1 win and 2 places with big prices in the last 2 weeks. however he has not won on a recognised stiff track and not with second top weight of 11 10 on his back.

Therefore Jballinggall to win.

08 Jan 2007

Well no racing in ireland tomorrow so im justr gave a quick look over the non handicap and handicap chase races in Britain. One stands out as a pretty decent value bet. Tauton 2.30 Marcel. Currently trading at 3.95 in a 4 horse race. Positives for Marcel is that he likes small fields, espically over chase jumps, likes tight tracks, likes going, distance, jockey has 1/2 strike rate with horse, jockey has 40% strike rate for david pipe over chases, and pipes stable in terrific form. likes season, days since last run and form seems ok when in small fields. Negative is his jumping. However with the small field and McCoy on board this should help matters. Aslo hoping that Spidam blows up due to first race back after a year off.

Resumption!

Ok, the itch is back again. Today was the first day i looked at the racing post in a while. I had three bets. i made 67.13 profit. All bets were in Naas. Kazal in the 2.00 at 11/4 came first (20 euro bet) in the competitive Novice hurdle. I then backed the favourite in the handicap chase in the next, Dead Sound and also backed charlie swans charge on the place market, Royal Man. the favourite came now where and im disappointed i baced it because on closer iunspection, chelsea harbout was the obvious choice to win this race. Royal Man battled back gamely to reclaim third spot and ensure i made a profit on this race of 15 euro. I aso started trading onthe man utd - aston villa game in the under - overs market and i made 2 euros from that. i can see myself starting to trade on the football a lot more. More to come on that in a few weeks.

Anyway i am changing my strategy. I have been trying to cover every race type in ireland and britain so im going to concentrate on non handicap national hunt races and small field handicap chases in Ireland. I will still have a few bets in britain but only when i see a stand out selection. the reason i have narrowed down my racing selection to this is simple. these are my more profitable areas.

burn out

Please excuse the lack of posting over the festive season. after 5 years of looking at the racing post every day i believe i have suffered burn out! So im taking a small break until i get the itch again!

back soon