Saturday

A qucik post today. i'll only be backing one and that is Parrain in the 3.45 novice hurdle in kempton. its a two horse race so get on at 2/1 or better..

Haydock

Well Iffy was a bit iffy to say the least. He should have placed but was held up by jockey in 5th, trying to stave of any rise in the weights. Trainer may not be in a good vain of form at the moment.

Haydock 3.10 Ebony light - Perfect conditions today. Trainer in unreal form and very promising jockey on board. good value at 11/4.

Wednesday Value at Ludlow

Ludlow 4.00 looks like a very good race and may produce a nice winner in te shape of the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cheltenham entry Iffy. Thankfully he hasnt been tipped up by the racing post so we might get some decent value on this selection. currently reading at 8/1.

This horse ran a creditbale third behind champion hurdle hopeful Afsoun. He is dropping in class and has all conditions to suit. He runs well after break and will be suited by course, with its log run in. The fav looks harshly treated for his easy win in a weak cls 4 maiden .2nd Fav Sunday city looks the biggest danger.Also dropping in class and has conditions to suit. im siding with Iffy as he has the better connections, but it is pretty close.

Good Result

Back to winning ways yesterday when Marcel duly obliged at 5/2.
Today i will be dutching South O the border and Helens Wood in the 4.30 in Fontwell. the only other danger in this race is scarlet mix but im ruling this horse out due to its bad run of results on soft ground. if the ground was good or even good to soft , i would back this horse.
I think that Helenswood may win today but i cant separate the two today but then again he only won on Leicster which is a stiff track, where as he came nowhere in Lingfield which is tight like today, but he could be finding his feet now in handicap company.. anyways dutching the two will give a 50% return in investment. South of the border is taking a drop in class in my opinion and is still value at 6/4

Saturday

Apologies for lack in posting but i took a mini break from racing over the past 3 days.

Marcel is running in the 4.10 in ascot.
im prefering this horse to misty dancer for 2 reasons. One Marcel is dropping in class and two misty dancer looks like he prefers tighter tracks. Also 3/1 is value

Friday Kempton

I had shortlisted 6 races t look at today but only one stands out and that is haunted house in the 3.10.

Sparse

Yes, racing has been sparse these last few days. i had a few bets picked out for wed but no joy as bothe NH meets in England called off. I presume taunton will be called off tomorrow as well as they are expecting snow. It s pity as i really fancy River Tigris in the 4.50. This horse ran a blinder last time out in first time blinkers on the same underfoot conditions as forecasted for tomorrow and also the same distance. Also with mccoy getting a second crack of the whip at this horse i thing that 9/2 is great value if you can get it. The main reason im going for this than the favourite is the fact that i think the fav is going up in clas while river tigris is defintely comin into a weaker race and he canbe progresive with the head gear on. As already stated, headgear has been proven to be most effective the second time been worn (as hors eis getting used to the blinded feeling)

Mt other two bets are in Southwell.
1.30 Grange Lili
3.30 Waterside

My main reason for this is the performance of their respective last races. Grange lili won after been obstructed and is gamely battler.. all is good for southwell where a battler can make up that extra half yard on a slower surface. He is very close to getting reeled in my the handicapper but is worth another go. at 5/2 its very near value. trainer has an outstanding record here and that tips the scale in favour of this selection in a small sized field.

Waterside is in brilliant form. Moore has teamed up with Callan today to tackle the extra furlong on the inform gelding. again the shiny price seems value and he will appreciate the extra furlong on this energy sapping fibre sand course.

Monday

No racing in ireland on monday. I will have 4 bets in Wolves tomorrow if i can get matched at decent prices. they are wahoo sam, canadian danehill, global traffic, all max bets and dapple dawn as a single bet. Im pretty confident about all 4, but not too happy about the prices i thought i d get on betfair.

Corner turned and new method

Today was a decent day for me. i had 5 bets and 4 won. Ok the odds were miserable but i had enough research put in to warrant a very confident days betting ahead of me if i stuck to my guns. My betting pattern consisted of a few max bets and and few singles.

I have spent the past week and weekend putting all my result in a spreadsheet and analysing every one of them. My Irish selections have been going ok for me, but i wont get rich quick with the lack of racing and the small number of suitable races.

Therefore i have developed a method which will narrow down selections for me in England.
I now have a process whereby i have 3 spreadsheets. One is to narrow down the selections for a particular day by using a certain method. This method gives me a list of horses which satisfy the following criteria

1. Horse can handle the going and distance
2. Trainer has a decent record at the course
3. Jockey has a decent record at the course
4. Trainer is in form
5. Horse has realistic chance of being in the frame

The second spreadsheet is where i run the above selections through a set of very professionally put together ratings i subscribe to and which i highly respect and have used for the past number of years. This highlights horses which are totally outclassed or not and provides the next filter.
i then look at the refined list and i look in depth at each selection to ensure the following

1. Is it suited to the course
2. Analyse recent form to see if the horse is really in/out of form or if it is a pattern horse - one who needs exact conditions to win -
3. Again look to see if it will be outclassed or not
4. Look at final indicators, field size, head gear, performance under certain weight, trainer comments, RP comments

the third and final spreadsheet is the final selections list that has passed all the criteria and i have each marked as either a max bet or a single bet. A max bet is 2.5 times the single bet. In monetary terms, that's 20 for a single and 50 for a max.

Im pretty confident that this will be profitable for the national hunt season. so far so good

Quick note

Aftertiming a bit today. i backed detroit city earlier to give me 21 euro proift and im placing this on fredy murphys horse, Negus De Beaumont in the 3 pm in Wetherby. looks a progessive horse and track will definitely suit. im annoyed i didnt take this at 7' as its now tradinng at 5's .