Kempton

Im looking through a few of the races in Kempton tomorrow.

2.20 Novice Hurdle

The first race looks good for a bet. Benetwood and Enlightenment are the two likely winners, however i believe the odds should be reversed. Benetwood beats Enlightenment hands down on the formlines (My turn now and Karello Bay). Plus the fact that AP McCoy is 2 from 2 on board and also Fontwell where horse has won twice is quite similiar to Kempton. At 3/1 I will be having a 2.5 point win bet. The only problem that i can foresee is the going conditions, however i see both horses having the same problem. I looked at dam and sire for Benetwood and it would souggest hat an easier surface is perferable but there was 1 win on good and a few places. Looking at the other semi contenders in the race , they all seem to have going question marks.

Tip: 2.5 point win Benetwood

Nothing really stands out on the 2 handicap chases. The first looks like Be Telling is still on the up and could win this one easy . however odds too short to nail this one as a certainty.

The second chase looks very competitive. all have a chance so no bet here.. the other races are minefields so will avoid.

Wednesday

two bets tomorrow in the 2.40 in Chepstow .
back Time for you
lay Travello

Quiet Times

No Bets the past few days and none today either.

Hangover bet

Very hungover today. Pretty disgusted in how the six nations panned out yesterday. I can't blame Ireland for running the ball at the end of the game. We needed as many points as possible and were unlucky to give away the try.

I also found out today, too drunk to remember yesterday but the TV judge at the French game was Irish and he gave the try even though there was no way he could see the ball was grounded. Maybe if the judge wasn't Irish he wouldn't have given it. .basically i'm saying , he gave the try so as to keep his job and not look biased.

Other than that, a great day was had yesterday. Meet up with friends I hadnt seen in ages and celebrated paddys day in style! ended up in casino though when i couldnt get a taxi and proceeded to throw away money.. note to self: Never go to casino drunk

One bet for today, well two, both in same race..

Fontwell 4.30
Lay Strolling Vagabond
Back Notanotherdonkey

now time to win back my losses from casino on some on line poker

Hangover bet

Very hungover today. Pretty disgusted in how the six nations panned out yesterday. I can't blame Ireland for running the ball at the end of the game. We needed as many points as possible and were unlucky to give away the try.

I also found out today, too drunk to remember yesterday but the TV judge at the French game was Irish and he gave the try even though there was no way he could see the ball was grounded. Maybe if the judge wasn't Irish he wouldn't have given it. .basically i'm saying , he gave the try so as to keep his job and not look biased.

Other than that, a great day was had yesterday. Meet up with friends I hadnt seen in ages and celebrated paddys day in style! ended up in casino though when i couldnt get a taxi and proceeded to throw away money.. note to self: Never go to casino drunk

One bet for today, well two, both in same race..

Fontwell 4.30
Lay Strolling Vagabond
Back Notanotherdonkey

now time to win back my losses from casino on some on line poker

Great Finish to the Festival!!

Well what can i say.. A brilliant finish to a really enjoyable weeks racing. First of all the results from today

2pts each way Katchit - 1st matched 7.4 betfair win, 2.98 place = +15.5 pts
1pt each way Flight Leader = - 2 pts
3 points win Kauto Star - 2.6 on Betfair = +4.5 points

In total +18 points today

Over the 4 days festival, we have banked a very respectable +34.1 points

If only all days were like this. I am first to admit, i did an unreal amount of form analysis to achieve this figure, touching on 7 hours each evening after a full days normal work.

And as a bonus today if anyone followed my tip for Fakenham, you would have gained an extra 2 points to SP. Luckily i took the early price on both selections, back and lay and returned 3 points profit extra today.

I would also like to thank my good friends at www.infactah.com (Irish Group Blog of the year) and Ray at http://thesportstrader.lastminuteliving.com/ for giving my site a mention during the week and to all the new readers who gave my blog a visit.

I will be updating the blog as usual with backs and lay selections and if one thing i have learned from this week is that you get your reward from putting in the hard work. Maybe that was something lacking since i started the blog. Hopefully I can keep it up.

Happy Paddys day to all and lets hope Ireland do the business tomorrow in the rugby to cap off a great week!

Cheltenham Day 4

Another tough day to predict. I will only be betting in three races. I do not have time for lenghty post so here are my three main bets

2. 00 Katchit 2 points each way
Great battler and loves the course. Will be in the frame.

2.35 1 point each way Flight Leader

3.15 3 points win Kauto Star


the last three races are a minefield. i spent 2 hours on the grand annual and cant come up with a selection. Favourites have a good record here and with nicholls and walsh in form, the saint saire looks ok, but he is only 4/1.

Another bet i will be placing is laying William John in the 5.30 in Fakenham and backing Doctor David in the same race. looks like easy money here.

Results Day 3

I Broke even today. It was a pity one of the bigger priced horses didnt come first to reward us. If i had just stuck to a 1 point level stakes strategy i would haveturned a profit, bit thats the way things go. I was very disappointed with my max bet. McCoy doesnt seen to be having the best of festivals.

Cheltenham Day 3

Each day is getting harder in my opinion. Im going to be very wary today. I have some big priced selections and no real banker so i will be betting to minimum stakes.

2.00 JEWSON NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

I'm first to admit I'm not good at selecting winners in big field handicap chases. However I have narrowed down my short list to the following

New Little Brick

Bob Hall

Vic Venturi

New little brick is in great form but im discounting due to top weight. If race is run at a quick pace like all the chase races have this week, he mighnt have enough in the tank to close out the finish.

Vic Venturi could go close and Philip Fentons bumper horse ran a great 4^th place yesterday so maybe a sign of good things. Still a few questions marks though but if there is an irish winner it might be this horse.

I am siding with Bob Hall. I see McCoy has chosen King Revo instead of this one. Im not too worried about that. King Revo is unproven at the distance while Bob Hall won comprehensively on the stiff track of Leicster under the capable hands of Noel Fehily who again takes the reigns today. He is bottom weight which will also help. I have also noticed the previous winners of this race had already won at the distance and had won or placed on a stiff track previously at the distance so Bob Hall fits the bill.

Tip: ½ point Each Way Bob Hall (16/1)

2.35 RYANAIR CHASE (REGISTERED AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY) GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)

This race is a head wreck of a challenge. I actually came up with good reasons to discount all of these horses which doest argue well. Usually when this happens it’s a sign of a big priced winner! However after much thought I have narrowed it down to either Monets Garden or Taranis. Taranis’s form line is franked by his third to gold cup hopeful Exotic Dancer and also ahs won around the course. But I'm discounting him for his questionable jumping ability. You don’t want to be backing a horse in this race who has a blemished jumping record. Cheltenham has the stiffest fences in England there or there abouts. When you clatter them , they will slow you down.

Monets Garden’ s record at Cheltenham reads 0-3. Not a good statistic. He has all the ability and is a great jumper. Also I have found out that he is a bad traveller and this was a cause of a number of his bad races. They have rectified this by making the trip to the cours e on the day of the races and this was tried last time out where he demolished the opposition at Ascot. This bit of info and the fact that he finished a close second to My Way De Solzen in the Arkle last year means he will possibly get it all right tomorrow and reward his connections with the elusive chetlenham win.

Tip: 1.5 pt win Monet Gardens (11/4)

3.15 LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE

Only a small interest in this race for me. I think Black Jack Ketchum will return to his bets and win. However nothing is sure and with his odds so skinny at 2/1 I’m going to side with Blazing Bailey. Its an Alan king trained horse, it’s a course and distance winner, its progressive .This is quite a tough race so I will be playing to minimum stakes

Tip: ½ point each way Blazing Bailey (8/1)

4.00 RACING POST PLATE (HANDICAP CHASE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Ok, this could be my biggest mistake of the week but I’m nailing my colours to the mast here. 5 of the past 7 winners have been French bred. French trained horses excel at intermediate distances (2m 4f). T Doumen has a 33% strike rate in England with chase horses. He leaves his horses well short in prep races and aims for the big ones. A lot of respected pundits have been talking this horse up. Therefore any remaining value is gone. It’s a JP McManus owned horse and McCoy has gotten down to his lowest weight this year to ride this horse. This has all the signs of a coup.

Tips: 2 points win Moncadou (8/1)

4.40 137TH YEAR OF THE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (AMATEUR RIDERS' NOVICES' CHASE) (CLASS 2)

This is a bit of a lottery and im going to play minimum stakes here again. Jonjo O Neill has a good record in these races. Also JT MacNamara knows how to ride this course. I am still taking a chance on Garde Champetre in this race as he is unproven at the distance and in fact has only raced once over 3 miles. He’s dropping in class and if he can handle the distance then im sure he can win.

Tip: ½ point each way Garde Champetre (20/1)

5.20 PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

Another tough race to crack. The winning profile states

Respect:
Irish-trained
Ran in the Warwick and Leopardstown Qualifier
Trained by Jonjo O'Neill
First six in the betting
Last-time-out winners

Oppose:
Five-year-olds
Ran in the Chepstow, Newbury or Haydock Qualifier

Therefore Im going for another outsider, Adamant Approach. Willie Mullins trained horse won the Leopardstown trial and is in good heart. He is also maturing nicely and the step up to three miles seems to suit. He has a very capable apprentice jockey aboard who has a 7 lbs claiming allowance which could make all the difference. His last two runs at Cheltenham have resulted in two placed efforts. Willie’s stable are in great heart so this horse is likely to run a very good race.

Tip: 1 point each way Adamant Approach (16/1)

Thats it for day three. Best of luck to all who invest!

Results Day 2

Day two was always going to be hard. Below are the bets i placed and my results.

2.00 Silverburn 1 point win - 9/2 4th - 1 pt
2.35 Denman 2 1/2 points win - 6/5 1st + 3.1 pts
3.15 Well Chief 2 1/2 points win - Evs Fell - 2 1/2 pts
4.00 Copsale Lad 1 point win - 6/1 UP - 1 pt
4.40 no bet
5.20 Cork All Star 1 point each way in paddy powers after much deliberation (reason i took it was they paid out 4 places for a place - 6/1 1st + 7. 5 pts

Total for day + 6.1 points

Cheltenham Day 2

I’m not too hot about day 2 of Cheltenham. The first three races look like the favourites will win and the last three races look more like a lottery. Aslo time constraints mean I don’t have time to go through the last three races in as much detail as I would like.

2.00 BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE BARING BINGHAM NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

This first race is a puzzle. The winner will come from the first 7 in the market, but it is so hard to judge which one will come out on top.

Here is the profile of past winners

Respect:
Contested a pattern race last time out
Irish-trained

Oppose:
Non five and six-year-olds
Failed to finish first or second last time out
Outside the first six in the betting

The one horse who I fancy because he loves a stiff track is Catch me, but this goes against the profile of past winners, and O Grady is not in great form. Also form lines suggests that he will not cope(De Valira in Tuesdays opener.)

Duc De Regniere im disregarding due to hendersons poor return in hurdles and also due to his banker losing yesterday.. stable not in great form

Scot Irish likes the going and the trainer is in great form, but we have very little to go on here. Maybe an each way chance.

Aran Concert isn’t sold to me. Noel Meade has said he is the best horse he had maybe ever trained, but haven’t we heard this before! He is however bred for this distance and is a good jumper. He is stepping up in class and at such short odds is worth taking on.

Good cases can be made for the following and if Aran Concerto fails to deliver than the winner wil come from the following three, Silverburn, Tidal Bay, My Turn Now.

Preference is for Silverburn who is a full brother to Denman and is very good value at 5/1. He has good form lines from his only blemish in his career and expect him to tackle the hill with gusto. For each way backers back then don’t look any further than Tidal Bay. This horse is even great value for a win bet. I am only separating this horse from Silver burn from both their form lines to Wichita Lineman as Silverburn came second to him on his hurdling debut and didn’t settle properly that day. Still 12/1 for a course and distance winner is perfect odds for the each way backers.

Tip: Silverburn to win

Or Tidal Wave for Each way backers

2.35 ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

One word to say here.

Denman

Maybe if Cailin Alainn hadn’t fallen last time out in Cheltenham where it was running well and reports hadn’t come out that he was pretty stiff after fall then she would have been a viable alternative. However Denman looks unbeatable here. The odds are brutal but worth a max bet here. Turko, off his low weight may prove a good each way bet for Nicholls second runner in this race.

Tip : 2 points Denman to Win

3.15 SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £176,762.00

Another three horse race here between Well Chief, New Mill and Voy Por Ustedes.

Im ruling Voy Pur Ustedes out as Arkle winners have not won the Champion Chase since 1973 as six year olds. However a high percentage have placed for anyone who wants to avail of the place market on Betfair.

I really want to see Newmill win but my head says that he may be outclassed by Well Chief. I think it really is this simple. Well chief who was only at 90%(on purpose after a 21 month lay off) when winning easily last time out will now be running at 100% and also coming from a stable bang in form. Only issue here is the ‘bounceability factor. (I heard of this such factor today for the first time in relation to racing, although I have heard Johnny Giles mention it a few times lately!) Will Well Chief return to the track after his first run out in 21 months in the right frame of mind.

Tip 2 ½ points on Well chief to win

4.00 CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Brief one here. I will have a small ½ point bet each way on Copsdale Lad. He has been running over fences and is very lightly raced this season. He was tried back over hurdles last time out and took advantage of his lowly handicap mark. He is again well treated for this race and is worth a bet. Henderson is due a coup and this could be it.

4.40 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)

This is a lottery and I’m having no bet here. I wont even try to advise.

5.20 WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

Another Lottery here. I probably wont bet in this race unless I get some good inside info on these, but the favourite does look pretty strong here, Cork All Star. Good breeding for speed, has already won in Cheltenham and with three good wins under its belt already.

In all fairness anything could win so thread carefully.best of luck if you are having a bet.

JPR

Great days profit

Here were my results today

2.00 1 point Amaretto rose - 3rd 5/2 - 1 pt
2.35 2 points My Way De Solzen 1st 4/1 on betfair +8 pts
1 point dont Push it Fell - 1pt
3.15 Brave Inca 11/2 2nd - 1 pt
Lay Detroit City + 1 pt
4.00 Rambling Minister - 8/1 UP -2 pts
4.40 2 points Heads on the Ground 1st 4/1 on betfair +8 points
5.20 Silver Jarro 12/1 UP -2pts

+10 points profit today

Cheltenham Day 1

Well its taking its time coming amid premature fears of abandonment at one stage, but finally the waiting is over and the Olympics of the National Hunt Season is here. We now know the going for the opening day is officially soft on the old course(Good to Soft in places) and soft (Heavy in places) on the cross country course. Nows its time to analyse the first days races with the ground conditions in mind.

2.00 ANGLO IRISH BANK SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £68,424.00

This race is not as clear cut as everyone thinks. Amaretto Rose is the clear favourite in this race. It is clearly a progressive type and has notched an impressive grade two event under its belt this year at Haydock. She can handle the going and distance and didnt come off the bridle in that event. One minor negative for me is the trainers and jockeys record in hurldes at the course. Even though last year i did back one of hendersons charges to win at 20/1 in the handicap hurdle on the last day (Green Hope).

The two main irish challengers are De Valira and Hide the evidence. Im ruling De Valira out because of the going . he needs it a bit faster. Hide the evidence is very interesting and is definitely great value at 8/1 on the exchanges. A grade 1 winner in Ireland and has all the conditions to suit. A respected friend said the following

' Why 'Hide The Evidence' will win.

Way back in November the best novice hurdler I had seen was Clopf. He went
to the Royal Bond and was destroyed by Hide The Evidence. What was most
impressive in his performance was that he quickened away like only good
horses can. Jessica was very excited and entered him for both the AIG and
Champion Hurdle. That's usually not her style.
She went on about using the AIG as a prep but I think she had grander
ambitions. In the AIG he ran like a novice, jumped well enough but didn't
settle at all and was a spent force by the time they hit the straight. He
wasn't given a hard race once it was clear he couldn't live with the big
boys.
I haven't seen a novice hurdler in Ireland who has that kick. The top
English challenger Amaretto Rose hasn't faced anything yet and hasn't shown
if she has anything off the bridle.
Hide The Evidence is the only novice hurdler I have seen this year with
that special gear !'

Granite jack has a great trainer and jockey but he is taking a major step up in class so im going to rule him out, also wont be suited by course.
Wins Now will like the conditions but again up in class and track may not suit.

Finally we should look at the profiles which have to be respected for this race going back over the years.

Respect:
Irish-trained horses
Unbeaten novices
Three runs or fewer over hurdles
Mares
The second-favourite

Therefore My tip for this race is Amaretto Rose. The reasons being 1. the mares allowance and mares have won three renewals since 1995 from just 16 runners. 2. It has had three runs over hurdles. However as you can see from the profile above, Hide the evidence has to be respected as well. I just thing that even though my friend doubts that Amaretto Rose has anything off the bridle, i think he will power up the hill. Mick Fitz has also been talking up this ride for a while now. So in my opinion race 1 will go to the English.

2.35 IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)


theres only three horses in this race, Fair Along, My Way DeSolzen & Dont Push It that can win it.

Its damn hard to separate the three. On my own ratings I have
Dont Push it - 68
My Way De Solzen - 61
Fair Along - 45

Fair Along scores so low due to trainer and jockeys poor record at the track. But hobbs is after coming out of his poor run of form. I do think that My Way De solzen will beat fair along, but dont push it is an unknown quantity. My way De Solzen was beaten by fair along earlier in season 10 days after running a tough race over fences at Lingfield, so now that he is fresh he can turn the tables around with him. He is a class jumper. Looking at his past form during the week, he absolutely flies over the fences.

So my tip for this race is 2 Points on My Way De Solzen to win with a back up 1 point bet on Dont Push it (Great value by the way) to win.


3.15 SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1

Another cracker of a race here. I have changed my mind three times on a selection for this race.

I am going to stick my neck out and make my banker lay of the festival 'Detroit City'. A cracking horse but i think he is taking too much of a step up in class and his year will come next year. there has only been one 5 yr old winner in 21 years and with him taking on current champion Brave Inca and dual champion hardy eustace, throw in in soft ground lover Straw bear and you have a very competitive race with a horse which has to prove everything.

All week i have been saying i would back Hardy Eustace, but now i think that he will have to battle it out with Brave Inca. there are so close at the moment that the reason i am now picking Brave Inca is 1. in the AIG Brave Inca was not 100% and Colm Murphy's yard were going badly. however they have fired in two inners now in the past 14 days and reason number 2. is value. For horse's so tight to separate, then the 5/1 on offer for him compare to 7/2 for Hardy is value.3. Ruby Walsh on Board. Brave Inca's best run this year was under Ruby Walsh. 4. Hardy Eustace is 10 and maybe just too old.

Tip: Brave Inca to win, Detroit City to lose


For the follwoing three handicap races , i will keep it short and sweet and explain the reasons for my selection.

4.00 WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

1 pt each way -Rambling Minister

Reason, heres the profile for past winners

Respect:
Carrying 10st 11lbs or less
Fancied horses (minus the favourite) starting at up to and including 8/1
Irish and Nicky Henderson-trained contenders

Oppose:
Prominent racers
The favourite

The trainer has had 6 placed at good prices out of 12 runners the last 14 days so he is getting there form wise. Likes stiff tracks (wins at newcastle and Hexham, placed at Cheltenham) won last time out and is currently 8/1(10.5 on the exchanges)

4.00 SPORTING INDEX HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY) (CLASS 2)

2 points win Heads On The Ground

Profile

Respect:
Ran well over the course before
Trained in Ireland
Ran in the P P Hogan Cross Country Chase

Oppose:
Seven or younger
Trained by Paul Nicholls
Never contested a cross-country race anywhere

this between Heads on the ground and spot the difference with preference for the younger and last ime out winner in the thall important race in Puchestown. Last years winer Native jack is out of sorts. Banker bet.

5.20 FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

(Copied from at the races)

The only patterns to have linked both winners to date, Dabiroun and Shamayoun, are (a) both were outsiders, (b) both had raced just three times to get their handicap mark, (c) both were handled by trainers that are a dab hand at getting one ready for a big handicap and, (d) both were useful on the Flat and, indeed, both were bred by the Aga Khan. Sadly, both are also now dead.

Of those points, the one that interests me most is the fact both winners had run exactly three times, the bare minimum number of runs required to qualify for a handicap mark for this contest. If this race is part of a long-term plan, then it makes sense not to show the handicapper your hand than is more than necessary but still enough to get into the race unlike the ante-post favourite for the last two years who missed the declaration cut.

I usually dont bet in this race but i think i have spotted the value bet of the day.

1 point each way on Silver Jarro

meets the criteria abover, trained by one of the craftiest trainers around and ridden by the champion jockey. Usually i dont back horses wearing head gear first time out. However i have noticed already this year that O neill fitted blinkers on a horse called basic fact and he didnt seem to need thema t he time but he won next time outut in a handicap hurdle ata decent price. aS this horse won last time out, there is nothing mentally wrong with the horse so the blinkers must be worn for a reason to bring the horse on more. Usually blinkers first time on a horse means problems. At 14/1 its great value.

Thats it for me me for the first day. Best of luck to all and i will update results tomorrow.

Fill up for Cheltenham

Time to increase the coffers for cheltenham on tuesday.

the 4.40 in tauton, Present M'Lord is value at 2/1 or greater. in a terrible race im taking on back in business as his jumping is suspect and the trainer is in a bad run of form. Present me lord looks like he will appreciate the going and distance and is the best jumper in the race. Alner also has a great record with chase races here.

No Lays today. Fields are too small and not worth the risk.

Go ENGLAND!!!

Apologies for not posting earlier as i had 3 successful lays , one losing value back and one more lay to go in the last in Market reason - Lusaka Le Pemba.

the reason being i got caught up in the soccer and rugby today.. For the first time in my life i was roaring and shouting on England to win and when they scored the last try I was jumping off the couch!! Being an Irish man, I consistently shout for any team playing England!! Nothing Personal mind as I have many english friends, but anything to shut the English media up and especially that brian moore commentator on the BBC... And to make things better it was an Irish man, young Gerraghty who made all the difference when he came on for England.. He is a player in the mold of Ronan O Gara, who is willing to back himself and try anything, and brought the rest of the back line into play with his superb passing.

This now means that Ireland have to beat Italy by 4 points more than France beat Scotland next week to secure the six nations championship.. What a mouth watering day in prospect next Saturday and it being the St Patricks day to boot, its going to be a cracker of a match and a sesssion!

I hope people listened to the betdaq preview. I listened last night and the one i take out of it for further inspection is saint saire in the grand annual. I am also going to back hardy eustace. they mentioned that this could be a very close finish with the best jumper maybe prevailing in the end. Hardy is the most accomplished jumper next to brave inca. Detroit city has made mistakes in his jumping this year and plus the fact that 5 yr olds have a terrible record in this race, and hardy has beaten brave inca this year in the AIG hurlde in leopardstown, then it is all set up for him to win. I have also read other reviews of cheltenham preview nights down the country where dessie hughes was present and he said that he has never been in better condition and is very hopeful.

I shall be running through the form for every race of the festival here so dont forget to look back here every night starting Monday night.

Betdaq sponsored cheltenham preview night

Check out this

http://www.irish-racing.com/cheltenham2007.htm

The Betdaq Cheltenham Preview Night Listen to probably the finest panel lined up throughout the Cheltenham Preview season. The Betdaq Cheltenham Preview Night was recorded at the Marriott Hotel, London on Thurday night, and is now available to download and listen to. The panel members of Ted Walsh, John Francome, Paul Nicholls, Tony McCoy, Russel Wiseman and Matt Williams give their considered opinions on their best hopes for the Cheltenham Festival with Mark Pougatch.

SATURDAY

I have two vlaue bets for today, but i dont think i will get the odds i want.

First one is Haut De Game in the 3.55 in Ayr. I m looking for 4/1 as its a tight race and each one of the runners has some claims for winning this. Im a bit worried about the top weight he is carrying so will have to get value here. he performs well in small fields and like the course but the top weight in the muck might mean he could get caught on the run in. ( I think i may have talked myself out of this bet!! - this is why it is good to write down why you want to back a horse!!)

Next one is the 5.20 in chepstow, pass me a dime. Im looking for 15/2 here but unlikey to get it. I may keep an eye on the in running betting to see if i can get value there.

My banker lay of the day is in the 4.55 in chepstow - Petite Margot. As always my criteria has been met. he is up in class and there are three mor ein the betting who are dropping in class and have good decent form.

Friday

2 bets for tomorrow.

Ayr 2.00 Zaffran Lady & 4.10 Frankie figg if greater than 9/2.


Lingfiled 4.20 Blythe spirit is a lay for me. up in class and in with better company. two speed horses in the race with decent for plus fisio who is well able to win this as well.

ON A ROLL

3 from three the past 2 days. Maybe i could be running into the right type of form with Cheltenham around the corner..... who knows!!

Winner Alright At last

it feels like it was a long time coming, but come it did. our back selection won and good value tow and out lay lost at very short odds.

No back bets for thursday, but im going to lay Artic Bear in the 2.55 in Thurles if i an get it under 4/1. This will be a very tough race to win and 7/2 the forecast price is way too short.

Wednesday

Well, the lay wasnt matched yesterday so no profit.

One back bet tomorrow in catterick 2.2o Beamish Prince. Great value at 8/1. Trainer hasn't a great strike rate, but is running into some bit of form the past two weeks. The horse is way classier than these horses in this seller and hopefully the return to hurdles where it posted its two wins will bring about the turn in form needed to win. Ground an distance will suit.

One lay tomorrow, Ling 5.05 Rule for Ever. a very competitive race and at 5/2 is under value for this horse stepping up in class and in a race loaded with speedy sorts.


Also congrats to Infactah.com for winning best group blog at the Irish blog awards over the weekend. A thoroughly deserved award for all involved.

hupougherdat

I have not disappeared. i had one bet teo weeks ago and it lost, bit i have been keeping an eye out since but nothing definite jumps off the pages. I also tried a bot of trading and made a return of 5% on investment over the weekend so it is doable.

I will be laying starcross Maid in the 4.10 in southwell if the odds come into 4/1. Days off track and looks outclassed so a definite lay if value odds are received. Trainer aint so hot either.

Cheltenham is only 2 weeks away, so I will be doing a full review for that....