Cheltenham Day 1

Well its taking its time coming amid premature fears of abandonment at one stage, but finally the waiting is over and the Olympics of the National Hunt Season is here. We now know the going for the opening day is officially soft on the old course(Good to Soft in places) and soft (Heavy in places) on the cross country course. Nows its time to analyse the first days races with the ground conditions in mind.

2.00 ANGLO IRISH BANK SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £68,424.00

This race is not as clear cut as everyone thinks. Amaretto Rose is the clear favourite in this race. It is clearly a progressive type and has notched an impressive grade two event under its belt this year at Haydock. She can handle the going and distance and didnt come off the bridle in that event. One minor negative for me is the trainers and jockeys record in hurldes at the course. Even though last year i did back one of hendersons charges to win at 20/1 in the handicap hurdle on the last day (Green Hope).

The two main irish challengers are De Valira and Hide the evidence. Im ruling De Valira out because of the going . he needs it a bit faster. Hide the evidence is very interesting and is definitely great value at 8/1 on the exchanges. A grade 1 winner in Ireland and has all the conditions to suit. A respected friend said the following

' Why 'Hide The Evidence' will win.

Way back in November the best novice hurdler I had seen was Clopf. He went
to the Royal Bond and was destroyed by Hide The Evidence. What was most
impressive in his performance was that he quickened away like only good
horses can. Jessica was very excited and entered him for both the AIG and
Champion Hurdle. That's usually not her style.
She went on about using the AIG as a prep but I think she had grander
ambitions. In the AIG he ran like a novice, jumped well enough but didn't
settle at all and was a spent force by the time they hit the straight. He
wasn't given a hard race once it was clear he couldn't live with the big
boys.
I haven't seen a novice hurdler in Ireland who has that kick. The top
English challenger Amaretto Rose hasn't faced anything yet and hasn't shown
if she has anything off the bridle.
Hide The Evidence is the only novice hurdler I have seen this year with
that special gear !'

Granite jack has a great trainer and jockey but he is taking a major step up in class so im going to rule him out, also wont be suited by course.
Wins Now will like the conditions but again up in class and track may not suit.

Finally we should look at the profiles which have to be respected for this race going back over the years.

Respect:
Irish-trained horses
Unbeaten novices
Three runs or fewer over hurdles
Mares
The second-favourite

Therefore My tip for this race is Amaretto Rose. The reasons being 1. the mares allowance and mares have won three renewals since 1995 from just 16 runners. 2. It has had three runs over hurdles. However as you can see from the profile above, Hide the evidence has to be respected as well. I just thing that even though my friend doubts that Amaretto Rose has anything off the bridle, i think he will power up the hill. Mick Fitz has also been talking up this ride for a while now. So in my opinion race 1 will go to the English.

2.35 IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)


theres only three horses in this race, Fair Along, My Way DeSolzen & Dont Push It that can win it.

Its damn hard to separate the three. On my own ratings I have
Dont Push it - 68
My Way De Solzen - 61
Fair Along - 45

Fair Along scores so low due to trainer and jockeys poor record at the track. But hobbs is after coming out of his poor run of form. I do think that My Way De solzen will beat fair along, but dont push it is an unknown quantity. My way De Solzen was beaten by fair along earlier in season 10 days after running a tough race over fences at Lingfield, so now that he is fresh he can turn the tables around with him. He is a class jumper. Looking at his past form during the week, he absolutely flies over the fences.

So my tip for this race is 2 Points on My Way De Solzen to win with a back up 1 point bet on Dont Push it (Great value by the way) to win.


3.15 SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1

Another cracker of a race here. I have changed my mind three times on a selection for this race.

I am going to stick my neck out and make my banker lay of the festival 'Detroit City'. A cracking horse but i think he is taking too much of a step up in class and his year will come next year. there has only been one 5 yr old winner in 21 years and with him taking on current champion Brave Inca and dual champion hardy eustace, throw in in soft ground lover Straw bear and you have a very competitive race with a horse which has to prove everything.

All week i have been saying i would back Hardy Eustace, but now i think that he will have to battle it out with Brave Inca. there are so close at the moment that the reason i am now picking Brave Inca is 1. in the AIG Brave Inca was not 100% and Colm Murphy's yard were going badly. however they have fired in two inners now in the past 14 days and reason number 2. is value. For horse's so tight to separate, then the 5/1 on offer for him compare to 7/2 for Hardy is value.3. Ruby Walsh on Board. Brave Inca's best run this year was under Ruby Walsh. 4. Hardy Eustace is 10 and maybe just too old.

Tip: Brave Inca to win, Detroit City to lose


For the follwoing three handicap races , i will keep it short and sweet and explain the reasons for my selection.

4.00 WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

1 pt each way -Rambling Minister

Reason, heres the profile for past winners

Respect:
Carrying 10st 11lbs or less
Fancied horses (minus the favourite) starting at up to and including 8/1
Irish and Nicky Henderson-trained contenders

Oppose:
Prominent racers
The favourite

The trainer has had 6 placed at good prices out of 12 runners the last 14 days so he is getting there form wise. Likes stiff tracks (wins at newcastle and Hexham, placed at Cheltenham) won last time out and is currently 8/1(10.5 on the exchanges)

4.00 SPORTING INDEX HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY) (CLASS 2)

2 points win Heads On The Ground

Profile

Respect:
Ran well over the course before
Trained in Ireland
Ran in the P P Hogan Cross Country Chase

Oppose:
Seven or younger
Trained by Paul Nicholls
Never contested a cross-country race anywhere

this between Heads on the ground and spot the difference with preference for the younger and last ime out winner in the thall important race in Puchestown. Last years winer Native jack is out of sorts. Banker bet.

5.20 FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

(Copied from at the races)

The only patterns to have linked both winners to date, Dabiroun and Shamayoun, are (a) both were outsiders, (b) both had raced just three times to get their handicap mark, (c) both were handled by trainers that are a dab hand at getting one ready for a big handicap and, (d) both were useful on the Flat and, indeed, both were bred by the Aga Khan. Sadly, both are also now dead.

Of those points, the one that interests me most is the fact both winners had run exactly three times, the bare minimum number of runs required to qualify for a handicap mark for this contest. If this race is part of a long-term plan, then it makes sense not to show the handicapper your hand than is more than necessary but still enough to get into the race unlike the ante-post favourite for the last two years who missed the declaration cut.

I usually dont bet in this race but i think i have spotted the value bet of the day.

1 point each way on Silver Jarro

meets the criteria abover, trained by one of the craftiest trainers around and ridden by the champion jockey. Usually i dont back horses wearing head gear first time out. However i have noticed already this year that O neill fitted blinkers on a horse called basic fact and he didnt seem to need thema t he time but he won next time outut in a handicap hurdle ata decent price. aS this horse won last time out, there is nothing mentally wrong with the horse so the blinkers must be worn for a reason to bring the horse on more. Usually blinkers first time on a horse means problems. At 14/1 its great value.

Thats it for me me for the first day. Best of luck to all and i will update results tomorrow.