Each day is getting harder in my opinion.
Im going to be very wary today. I have some big priced
selections and no real banker so i will be betting to minimum stakes.
2.00 JEWSON NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)
I'm first to admit I'm not good at selecting winners in big field handicap chases. However I have narrowed down my short list to the following
New Little Brick
Bob Hall
Vic Venturi
New little brick is in great form but im discounting due to top weight. If race is run at a quick pace like all the chase races have this week, he mighnt have enough in the tank to close out the finish.
Vic Venturi could go close and Philip Fentons bumper horse ran a great 4th place yesterday so maybe a sign of good things. Still a few questions marks though but if there is an irish winner it might be this horse.
I am siding with Bob Hall. I see McCoy has chosen King Revo instead of this one. Im not too worried about that. King Revo is unproven at the distance while Bob Hall won comprehensively on the stiff track of Leicster under the capable hands of Noel Fehily who again takes the reigns today. He is bottom weight which will also help. I have also noticed the previous winners of this race had already won at the distance and had won or placed on a stiff track previously at the distance so Bob Hall fits the bill.
Tip: ½ point Each Way Bob Hall (16/1)
2.35 RYANAIR CHASE (REGISTERED AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY) GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)
This race is a head wreck of a challenge. I actually came up with good reasons to discount all of these horses which doest argue well. Usually when this happens it’s a sign of a big priced winner! However after much thought I have narrowed it down to either Monets Garden or Taranis. Taranis’s form line is franked by his third to gold cup hopeful Exotic Dancer and also ahs won around the course. But I'm discounting him for his questionable jumping ability. You don’t want to be backing a horse in this race who has a blemished jumping record. Cheltenham has the stiffest fences in England there or there abouts. When you clatter them , they will slow you down.
Monets Garden’ s record at Cheltenham reads 0-3. Not a good statistic. He has all the ability and is a great jumper. Also I have found out that he is a bad traveller and this was a cause of a number of his bad races. They have rectified this by making the trip to the cours e on the day of the races and this was tried last time out where he demolished the opposition at Ascot. This bit of info and the fact that he finished a close second to My Way De Solzen in the Arkle last year means he will possibly get it all right tomorrow and reward his connections with the elusive chetlenham win.
Tip: 1.5 pt win Monet Gardens (11/4)
3.15 LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE
Only a small interest in this race for me. I think Black Jack Ketchum will return to his bets and win. However nothing is sure and with his odds so skinny at 2/1 I’m going to side with Blazing Bailey. Its an Alan king trained horse, it’s a course and distance winner, its progressive .This is quite a tough race so I will be playing to minimum stakes
Tip: ½ point each way Blazing Bailey (8/1)
4.00 RACING POST PLATE (HANDICAP CHASE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)
Ok, this could be my biggest mistake of the week but I’m nailing my colours to the mast here. 5 of the past 7 winners have been French bred. French trained horses excel at intermediate distances (2m 4f). T Doumen has a 33% strike rate in England with chase horses. He leaves his horses well short in prep races and aims for the big ones. A lot of respected pundits have been talking this horse up. Therefore any remaining value is gone. It’s a JP McManus owned horse and McCoy has gotten down to his lowest weight this year to ride this horse. This has all the signs of a coup.
Tips: 2 points win Moncadou (8/1)
4.40 137TH YEAR OF THE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (AMATEUR RIDERS' NOVICES' CHASE) (CLASS 2)
This is a bit of a lottery and im going to play minimum stakes here again. Jonjo O Neill has a good record in these races. Also JT MacNamara knows how to ride this course. I am still taking a chance on Garde Champetre in this race as he is unproven at the distance and in fact has only raced once over 3 miles. He’s dropping in class and if he can handle the distance then im sure he can win.
Tip: ½ point each way Garde Champetre (20/1)
5.20 PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)
Another tough race to crack. The winning profile states
Respect:
Irish-trained
Ran in the Warwick and Leopardstown Qualifier
Trained by Jonjo O'Neill
First six in the betting
Last-time-out winners
Oppose:
Five-year-olds
Ran in the Chepstow, Newbury or Haydock Qualifier
Therefore Im going for another outsider, Adamant Approach. Willie Mullins trained horse won the Leopardstown trial and is in good heart. He is also maturing nicely and the step up to three miles seems to suit. He has a very capable apprentice jockey aboard who has a 7 lbs claiming allowance which could make all the difference. His last two runs at Cheltenham have resulted in two placed efforts. Willie’s stable are in great heart so this horse is likely to run a very good race.
Tip: 1 point each way Adamant Approach (16/1)
Thats it for day three. Best of luck to all who invest!
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