Cheltenham Day 2

I’m not too hot about day 2 of Cheltenham. The first three races look like the favourites will win and the last three races look more like a lottery. Aslo time constraints mean I don’t have time to go through the last three races in as much detail as I would like.

2.00 BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE BARING BINGHAM NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

This first race is a puzzle. The winner will come from the first 7 in the market, but it is so hard to judge which one will come out on top.

Here is the profile of past winners

Respect:
Contested a pattern race last time out
Irish-trained

Oppose:
Non five and six-year-olds
Failed to finish first or second last time out
Outside the first six in the betting

The one horse who I fancy because he loves a stiff track is Catch me, but this goes against the profile of past winners, and O Grady is not in great form. Also form lines suggests that he will not cope(De Valira in Tuesdays opener.)

Duc De Regniere im disregarding due to hendersons poor return in hurdles and also due to his banker losing yesterday.. stable not in great form

Scot Irish likes the going and the trainer is in great form, but we have very little to go on here. Maybe an each way chance.

Aran Concert isn’t sold to me. Noel Meade has said he is the best horse he had maybe ever trained, but haven’t we heard this before! He is however bred for this distance and is a good jumper. He is stepping up in class and at such short odds is worth taking on.

Good cases can be made for the following and if Aran Concerto fails to deliver than the winner wil come from the following three, Silverburn, Tidal Bay, My Turn Now.

Preference is for Silverburn who is a full brother to Denman and is very good value at 5/1. He has good form lines from his only blemish in his career and expect him to tackle the hill with gusto. For each way backers back then don’t look any further than Tidal Bay. This horse is even great value for a win bet. I am only separating this horse from Silver burn from both their form lines to Wichita Lineman as Silverburn came second to him on his hurdling debut and didn’t settle properly that day. Still 12/1 for a course and distance winner is perfect odds for the each way backers.

Tip: Silverburn to win

Or Tidal Wave for Each way backers

2.35 ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

One word to say here.

Denman

Maybe if Cailin Alainn hadn’t fallen last time out in Cheltenham where it was running well and reports hadn’t come out that he was pretty stiff after fall then she would have been a viable alternative. However Denman looks unbeatable here. The odds are brutal but worth a max bet here. Turko, off his low weight may prove a good each way bet for Nicholls second runner in this race.

Tip : 2 points Denman to Win

3.15 SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £176,762.00

Another three horse race here between Well Chief, New Mill and Voy Por Ustedes.

Im ruling Voy Pur Ustedes out as Arkle winners have not won the Champion Chase since 1973 as six year olds. However a high percentage have placed for anyone who wants to avail of the place market on Betfair.

I really want to see Newmill win but my head says that he may be outclassed by Well Chief. I think it really is this simple. Well chief who was only at 90%(on purpose after a 21 month lay off) when winning easily last time out will now be running at 100% and also coming from a stable bang in form. Only issue here is the ‘bounceability factor. (I heard of this such factor today for the first time in relation to racing, although I have heard Johnny Giles mention it a few times lately!) Will Well Chief return to the track after his first run out in 21 months in the right frame of mind.

Tip 2 ½ points on Well chief to win

4.00 CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Brief one here. I will have a small ½ point bet each way on Copsdale Lad. He has been running over fences and is very lightly raced this season. He was tried back over hurdles last time out and took advantage of his lowly handicap mark. He is again well treated for this race and is worth a bet. Henderson is due a coup and this could be it.

4.40 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)

This is a lottery and I’m having no bet here. I wont even try to advise.

5.20 WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

Another Lottery here. I probably wont bet in this race unless I get some good inside info on these, but the favourite does look pretty strong here, Cork All Star. Good breeding for speed, has already won in Cheltenham and with three good wins under its belt already.

In all fairness anything could win so thread carefully.best of luck if you are having a bet.

JPR