Kempton

Im looking through a few of the races in Kempton tomorrow.

2.20 Novice Hurdle

The first race looks good for a bet. Benetwood and Enlightenment are the two likely winners, however i believe the odds should be reversed. Benetwood beats Enlightenment hands down on the formlines (My turn now and Karello Bay). Plus the fact that AP McCoy is 2 from 2 on board and also Fontwell where horse has won twice is quite similiar to Kempton. At 3/1 I will be having a 2.5 point win bet. The only problem that i can foresee is the going conditions, however i see both horses having the same problem. I looked at dam and sire for Benetwood and it would souggest hat an easier surface is perferable but there was 1 win on good and a few places. Looking at the other semi contenders in the race , they all seem to have going question marks.

Tip: 2.5 point win Benetwood

Nothing really stands out on the 2 handicap chases. The first looks like Be Telling is still on the up and could win this one easy . however odds too short to nail this one as a certainty.

The second chase looks very competitive. all have a chance so no bet here.. the other races are minefields so will avoid.

Wednesday

two bets tomorrow in the 2.40 in Chepstow .
back Time for you
lay Travello

Quiet Times

No Bets the past few days and none today either.

Hangover bet

Very hungover today. Pretty disgusted in how the six nations panned out yesterday. I can't blame Ireland for running the ball at the end of the game. We needed as many points as possible and were unlucky to give away the try.

I also found out today, too drunk to remember yesterday but the TV judge at the French game was Irish and he gave the try even though there was no way he could see the ball was grounded. Maybe if the judge wasn't Irish he wouldn't have given it. .basically i'm saying , he gave the try so as to keep his job and not look biased.

Other than that, a great day was had yesterday. Meet up with friends I hadnt seen in ages and celebrated paddys day in style! ended up in casino though when i couldnt get a taxi and proceeded to throw away money.. note to self: Never go to casino drunk

One bet for today, well two, both in same race..

Fontwell 4.30
Lay Strolling Vagabond
Back Notanotherdonkey

now time to win back my losses from casino on some on line poker

Hangover bet

Very hungover today. Pretty disgusted in how the six nations panned out yesterday. I can't blame Ireland for running the ball at the end of the game. We needed as many points as possible and were unlucky to give away the try.

I also found out today, too drunk to remember yesterday but the TV judge at the French game was Irish and he gave the try even though there was no way he could see the ball was grounded. Maybe if the judge wasn't Irish he wouldn't have given it. .basically i'm saying , he gave the try so as to keep his job and not look biased.

Other than that, a great day was had yesterday. Meet up with friends I hadnt seen in ages and celebrated paddys day in style! ended up in casino though when i couldnt get a taxi and proceeded to throw away money.. note to self: Never go to casino drunk

One bet for today, well two, both in same race..

Fontwell 4.30
Lay Strolling Vagabond
Back Notanotherdonkey

now time to win back my losses from casino on some on line poker

Great Finish to the Festival!!

Well what can i say.. A brilliant finish to a really enjoyable weeks racing. First of all the results from today

2pts each way Katchit - 1st matched 7.4 betfair win, 2.98 place = +15.5 pts
1pt each way Flight Leader = - 2 pts
3 points win Kauto Star - 2.6 on Betfair = +4.5 points

In total +18 points today

Over the 4 days festival, we have banked a very respectable +34.1 points

If only all days were like this. I am first to admit, i did an unreal amount of form analysis to achieve this figure, touching on 7 hours each evening after a full days normal work.

And as a bonus today if anyone followed my tip for Fakenham, you would have gained an extra 2 points to SP. Luckily i took the early price on both selections, back and lay and returned 3 points profit extra today.

I would also like to thank my good friends at www.infactah.com (Irish Group Blog of the year) and Ray at http://thesportstrader.lastminuteliving.com/ for giving my site a mention during the week and to all the new readers who gave my blog a visit.

I will be updating the blog as usual with backs and lay selections and if one thing i have learned from this week is that you get your reward from putting in the hard work. Maybe that was something lacking since i started the blog. Hopefully I can keep it up.

Happy Paddys day to all and lets hope Ireland do the business tomorrow in the rugby to cap off a great week!

Cheltenham Day 4

Another tough day to predict. I will only be betting in three races. I do not have time for lenghty post so here are my three main bets

2. 00 Katchit 2 points each way
Great battler and loves the course. Will be in the frame.

2.35 1 point each way Flight Leader

3.15 3 points win Kauto Star


the last three races are a minefield. i spent 2 hours on the grand annual and cant come up with a selection. Favourites have a good record here and with nicholls and walsh in form, the saint saire looks ok, but he is only 4/1.

Another bet i will be placing is laying William John in the 5.30 in Fakenham and backing Doctor David in the same race. looks like easy money here.

Results Day 3

I Broke even today. It was a pity one of the bigger priced horses didnt come first to reward us. If i had just stuck to a 1 point level stakes strategy i would haveturned a profit, bit thats the way things go. I was very disappointed with my max bet. McCoy doesnt seen to be having the best of festivals.

Cheltenham Day 3

Each day is getting harder in my opinion. Im going to be very wary today. I have some big priced selections and no real banker so i will be betting to minimum stakes.

2.00 JEWSON NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

I'm first to admit I'm not good at selecting winners in big field handicap chases. However I have narrowed down my short list to the following

New Little Brick

Bob Hall

Vic Venturi

New little brick is in great form but im discounting due to top weight. If race is run at a quick pace like all the chase races have this week, he mighnt have enough in the tank to close out the finish.

Vic Venturi could go close and Philip Fentons bumper horse ran a great 4^th place yesterday so maybe a sign of good things. Still a few questions marks though but if there is an irish winner it might be this horse.

I am siding with Bob Hall. I see McCoy has chosen King Revo instead of this one. Im not too worried about that. King Revo is unproven at the distance while Bob Hall won comprehensively on the stiff track of Leicster under the capable hands of Noel Fehily who again takes the reigns today. He is bottom weight which will also help. I have also noticed the previous winners of this race had already won at the distance and had won or placed on a stiff track previously at the distance so Bob Hall fits the bill.

Tip: ½ point Each Way Bob Hall (16/1)

2.35 RYANAIR CHASE (REGISTERED AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY) GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)

This race is a head wreck of a challenge. I actually came up with good reasons to discount all of these horses which doest argue well. Usually when this happens it’s a sign of a big priced winner! However after much thought I have narrowed it down to either Monets Garden or Taranis. Taranis’s form line is franked by his third to gold cup hopeful Exotic Dancer and also ahs won around the course. But I'm discounting him for his questionable jumping ability. You don’t want to be backing a horse in this race who has a blemished jumping record. Cheltenham has the stiffest fences in England there or there abouts. When you clatter them , they will slow you down.

Monets Garden’ s record at Cheltenham reads 0-3. Not a good statistic. He has all the ability and is a great jumper. Also I have found out that he is a bad traveller and this was a cause of a number of his bad races. They have rectified this by making the trip to the cours e on the day of the races and this was tried last time out where he demolished the opposition at Ascot. This bit of info and the fact that he finished a close second to My Way De Solzen in the Arkle last year means he will possibly get it all right tomorrow and reward his connections with the elusive chetlenham win.

Tip: 1.5 pt win Monet Gardens (11/4)

3.15 LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE

Only a small interest in this race for me. I think Black Jack Ketchum will return to his bets and win. However nothing is sure and with his odds so skinny at 2/1 I’m going to side with Blazing Bailey. Its an Alan king trained horse, it’s a course and distance winner, its progressive .This is quite a tough race so I will be playing to minimum stakes

Tip: ½ point each way Blazing Bailey (8/1)

4.00 RACING POST PLATE (HANDICAP CHASE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Ok, this could be my biggest mistake of the week but I’m nailing my colours to the mast here. 5 of the past 7 winners have been French bred. French trained horses excel at intermediate distances (2m 4f). T Doumen has a 33% strike rate in England with chase horses. He leaves his horses well short in prep races and aims for the big ones. A lot of respected pundits have been talking this horse up. Therefore any remaining value is gone. It’s a JP McManus owned horse and McCoy has gotten down to his lowest weight this year to ride this horse. This has all the signs of a coup.

Tips: 2 points win Moncadou (8/1)

4.40 137TH YEAR OF THE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (AMATEUR RIDERS' NOVICES' CHASE) (CLASS 2)

This is a bit of a lottery and im going to play minimum stakes here again. Jonjo O Neill has a good record in these races. Also JT MacNamara knows how to ride this course. I am still taking a chance on Garde Champetre in this race as he is unproven at the distance and in fact has only raced once over 3 miles. He’s dropping in class and if he can handle the distance then im sure he can win.

Tip: ½ point each way Garde Champetre (20/1)

5.20 PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

Another tough race to crack. The winning profile states

Respect:
Irish-trained
Ran in the Warwick and Leopardstown Qualifier
Trained by Jonjo O'Neill
First six in the betting
Last-time-out winners

Oppose:
Five-year-olds
Ran in the Chepstow, Newbury or Haydock Qualifier

Therefore Im going for another outsider, Adamant Approach. Willie Mullins trained horse won the Leopardstown trial and is in good heart. He is also maturing nicely and the step up to three miles seems to suit. He has a very capable apprentice jockey aboard who has a 7 lbs claiming allowance which could make all the difference. His last two runs at Cheltenham have resulted in two placed efforts. Willie’s stable are in great heart so this horse is likely to run a very good race.

Tip: 1 point each way Adamant Approach (16/1)

Thats it for day three. Best of luck to all who invest!

Results Day 2

Day two was always going to be hard. Below are the bets i placed and my results.

2.00 Silverburn 1 point win - 9/2 4th - 1 pt
2.35 Denman 2 1/2 points win - 6/5 1st + 3.1 pts
3.15 Well Chief 2 1/2 points win - Evs Fell - 2 1/2 pts
4.00 Copsale Lad 1 point win - 6/1 UP - 1 pt
4.40 no bet
5.20 Cork All Star 1 point each way in paddy powers after much deliberation (reason i took it was they paid out 4 places for a place - 6/1 1st + 7. 5 pts

Total for day + 6.1 points

Cheltenham Day 2

I’m not too hot about day 2 of Cheltenham. The first three races look like the favourites will win and the last three races look more like a lottery. Aslo time constraints mean I don’t have time to go through the last three races in as much detail as I would like.

2.00 BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE BARING BINGHAM NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

This first race is a puzzle. The winner will come from the first 7 in the market, but it is so hard to judge which one will come out on top.

Here is the profile of past winners

Respect:
Contested a pattern race last time out
Irish-trained

Oppose:
Non five and six-year-olds
Failed to finish first or second last time out
Outside the first six in the betting

The one horse who I fancy because he loves a stiff track is Catch me, but this goes against the profile of past winners, and O Grady is not in great form. Also form lines suggests that he will not cope(De Valira in Tuesdays opener.)

Duc De Regniere im disregarding due to hendersons poor return in hurdles and also due to his banker losing yesterday.. stable not in great form

Scot Irish likes the going and the trainer is in great form, but we have very little to go on here. Maybe an each way chance.

Aran Concert isn’t sold to me. Noel Meade has said he is the best horse he had maybe ever trained, but haven’t we heard this before! He is however bred for this distance and is a good jumper. He is stepping up in class and at such short odds is worth taking on.

Good cases can be made for the following and if Aran Concerto fails to deliver than the winner wil come from the following three, Silverburn, Tidal Bay, My Turn Now.

Preference is for Silverburn who is a full brother to Denman and is very good value at 5/1. He has good form lines from his only blemish in his career and expect him to tackle the hill with gusto. For each way backers back then don’t look any further than Tidal Bay. This horse is even great value for a win bet. I am only separating this horse from Silver burn from both their form lines to Wichita Lineman as Silverburn came second to him on his hurdling debut and didn’t settle properly that day. Still 12/1 for a course and distance winner is perfect odds for the each way backers.

Tip: Silverburn to win

Or Tidal Wave for Each way backers

2.35 ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

One word to say here.

Denman

Maybe if Cailin Alainn hadn’t fallen last time out in Cheltenham where it was running well and reports hadn’t come out that he was pretty stiff after fall then she would have been a viable alternative. However Denman looks unbeatable here. The odds are brutal but worth a max bet here. Turko, off his low weight may prove a good each way bet for Nicholls second runner in this race.

Tip : 2 points Denman to Win

3.15 SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £176,762.00

Another three horse race here between Well Chief, New Mill and Voy Por Ustedes.

Im ruling Voy Pur Ustedes out as Arkle winners have not won the Champion Chase since 1973 as six year olds. However a high percentage have placed for anyone who wants to avail of the place market on Betfair.

I really want to see Newmill win but my head says that he may be outclassed by Well Chief. I think it really is this simple. Well chief who was only at 90%(on purpose after a 21 month lay off) when winning easily last time out will now be running at 100% and also coming from a stable bang in form. Only issue here is the ‘bounceability factor. (I heard of this such factor today for the first time in relation to racing, although I have heard Johnny Giles mention it a few times lately!) Will Well Chief return to the track after his first run out in 21 months in the right frame of mind.

Tip 2 ½ points on Well chief to win

4.00 CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Brief one here. I will have a small ½ point bet each way on Copsdale Lad. He has been running over fences and is very lightly raced this season. He was tried back over hurdles last time out and took advantage of his lowly handicap mark. He is again well treated for this race and is worth a bet. Henderson is due a coup and this could be it.

4.40 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)

This is a lottery and I’m having no bet here. I wont even try to advise.

5.20 WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

Another Lottery here. I probably wont bet in this race unless I get some good inside info on these, but the favourite does look pretty strong here, Cork All Star. Good breeding for speed, has already won in Cheltenham and with three good wins under its belt already.

In all fairness anything could win so thread carefully.best of luck if you are having a bet.

JPR

Great days profit

Here were my results today

2.00 1 point Amaretto rose - 3rd 5/2 - 1 pt
2.35 2 points My Way De Solzen 1st 4/1 on betfair +8 pts
1 point dont Push it Fell - 1pt
3.15 Brave Inca 11/2 2nd - 1 pt
Lay Detroit City + 1 pt
4.00 Rambling Minister - 8/1 UP -2 pts
4.40 2 points Heads on the Ground 1st 4/1 on betfair +8 points
5.20 Silver Jarro 12/1 UP -2pts

+10 points profit today

Cheltenham Day 1

Well its taking its time coming amid premature fears of abandonment at one stage, but finally the waiting is over and the Olympics of the National Hunt Season is here. We now know the going for the opening day is officially soft on the old course(Good to Soft in places) and soft (Heavy in places) on the cross country course. Nows its time to analyse the first days races with the ground conditions in mind.

2.00 ANGLO IRISH BANK SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £68,424.00

This race is not as clear cut as everyone thinks. Amaretto Rose is the clear favourite in this race. It is clearly a progressive type and has notched an impressive grade two event under its belt this year at Haydock. She can handle the going and distance and didnt come off the bridle in that event. One minor negative for me is the trainers and jockeys record in hurldes at the course. Even though last year i did back one of hendersons charges to win at 20/1 in the handicap hurdle on the last day (Green Hope).

The two main irish challengers are De Valira and Hide the evidence. Im ruling De Valira out because of the going . he needs it a bit faster. Hide the evidence is very interesting and is definitely great value at 8/1 on the exchanges. A grade 1 winner in Ireland and has all the conditions to suit. A respected friend said the following

' Why 'Hide The Evidence' will win.

Way back in November the best novice hurdler I had seen was Clopf. He went
to the Royal Bond and was destroyed by Hide The Evidence. What was most
impressive in his performance was that he quickened away like only good
horses can. Jessica was very excited and entered him for both the AIG and
Champion Hurdle. That's usually not her style.
She went on about using the AIG as a prep but I think she had grander
ambitions. In the AIG he ran like a novice, jumped well enough but didn't
settle at all and was a spent force by the time they hit the straight. He
wasn't given a hard race once it was clear he couldn't live with the big
boys.
I haven't seen a novice hurdler in Ireland who has that kick. The top
English challenger Amaretto Rose hasn't faced anything yet and hasn't shown
if she has anything off the bridle.
Hide The Evidence is the only novice hurdler I have seen this year with
that special gear !'

Granite jack has a great trainer and jockey but he is taking a major step up in class so im going to rule him out, also wont be suited by course.
Wins Now will like the conditions but again up in class and track may not suit.

Finally we should look at the profiles which have to be respected for this race going back over the years.

Respect:
Irish-trained horses
Unbeaten novices
Three runs or fewer over hurdles
Mares
The second-favourite

Therefore My tip for this race is Amaretto Rose. The reasons being 1. the mares allowance and mares have won three renewals since 1995 from just 16 runners. 2. It has had three runs over hurdles. However as you can see from the profile above, Hide the evidence has to be respected as well. I just thing that even though my friend doubts that Amaretto Rose has anything off the bridle, i think he will power up the hill. Mick Fitz has also been talking up this ride for a while now. So in my opinion race 1 will go to the English.

2.35 IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)


theres only three horses in this race, Fair Along, My Way DeSolzen & Dont Push It that can win it.

Its damn hard to separate the three. On my own ratings I have
Dont Push it - 68
My Way De Solzen - 61
Fair Along - 45

Fair Along scores so low due to trainer and jockeys poor record at the track. But hobbs is after coming out of his poor run of form. I do think that My Way De solzen will beat fair along, but dont push it is an unknown quantity. My way De Solzen was beaten by fair along earlier in season 10 days after running a tough race over fences at Lingfield, so now that he is fresh he can turn the tables around with him. He is a class jumper. Looking at his past form during the week, he absolutely flies over the fences.

So my tip for this race is 2 Points on My Way De Solzen to win with a back up 1 point bet on Dont Push it (Great value by the way) to win.


3.15 SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1

Another cracker of a race here. I have changed my mind three times on a selection for this race.

I am going to stick my neck out and make my banker lay of the festival 'Detroit City'. A cracking horse but i think he is taking too much of a step up in class and his year will come next year. there has only been one 5 yr old winner in 21 years and with him taking on current champion Brave Inca and dual champion hardy eustace, throw in in soft ground lover Straw bear and you have a very competitive race with a horse which has to prove everything.

All week i have been saying i would back Hardy Eustace, but now i think that he will have to battle it out with Brave Inca. there are so close at the moment that the reason i am now picking Brave Inca is 1. in the AIG Brave Inca was not 100% and Colm Murphy's yard were going badly. however they have fired in two inners now in the past 14 days and reason number 2. is value. For horse's so tight to separate, then the 5/1 on offer for him compare to 7/2 for Hardy is value.3. Ruby Walsh on Board. Brave Inca's best run this year was under Ruby Walsh. 4. Hardy Eustace is 10 and maybe just too old.

Tip: Brave Inca to win, Detroit City to lose


For the follwoing three handicap races , i will keep it short and sweet and explain the reasons for my selection.

4.00 WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

1 pt each way -Rambling Minister

Reason, heres the profile for past winners

Respect:
Carrying 10st 11lbs or less
Fancied horses (minus the favourite) starting at up to and including 8/1
Irish and Nicky Henderson-trained contenders

Oppose:
Prominent racers
The favourite

The trainer has had 6 placed at good prices out of 12 runners the last 14 days so he is getting there form wise. Likes stiff tracks (wins at newcastle and Hexham, placed at Cheltenham) won last time out and is currently 8/1(10.5 on the exchanges)

4.00 SPORTING INDEX HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY) (CLASS 2)

2 points win Heads On The Ground

Profile

Respect:
Ran well over the course before
Trained in Ireland
Ran in the P P Hogan Cross Country Chase

Oppose:
Seven or younger
Trained by Paul Nicholls
Never contested a cross-country race anywhere

this between Heads on the ground and spot the difference with preference for the younger and last ime out winner in the thall important race in Puchestown. Last years winer Native jack is out of sorts. Banker bet.

5.20 FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

(Copied from at the races)

The only patterns to have linked both winners to date, Dabiroun and Shamayoun, are (a) both were outsiders, (b) both had raced just three times to get their handicap mark, (c) both were handled by trainers that are a dab hand at getting one ready for a big handicap and, (d) both were useful on the Flat and, indeed, both were bred by the Aga Khan. Sadly, both are also now dead.

Of those points, the one that interests me most is the fact both winners had run exactly three times, the bare minimum number of runs required to qualify for a handicap mark for this contest. If this race is part of a long-term plan, then it makes sense not to show the handicapper your hand than is more than necessary but still enough to get into the race unlike the ante-post favourite for the last two years who missed the declaration cut.

I usually dont bet in this race but i think i have spotted the value bet of the day.

1 point each way on Silver Jarro

meets the criteria abover, trained by one of the craftiest trainers around and ridden by the champion jockey. Usually i dont back horses wearing head gear first time out. However i have noticed already this year that O neill fitted blinkers on a horse called basic fact and he didnt seem to need thema t he time but he won next time outut in a handicap hurdle ata decent price. aS this horse won last time out, there is nothing mentally wrong with the horse so the blinkers must be worn for a reason to bring the horse on more. Usually blinkers first time on a horse means problems. At 14/1 its great value.

Thats it for me me for the first day. Best of luck to all and i will update results tomorrow.

Fill up for Cheltenham

Time to increase the coffers for cheltenham on tuesday.

the 4.40 in tauton, Present M'Lord is value at 2/1 or greater. in a terrible race im taking on back in business as his jumping is suspect and the trainer is in a bad run of form. Present me lord looks like he will appreciate the going and distance and is the best jumper in the race. Alner also has a great record with chase races here.

No Lays today. Fields are too small and not worth the risk.

Go ENGLAND!!!

Apologies for not posting earlier as i had 3 successful lays , one losing value back and one more lay to go in the last in Market reason - Lusaka Le Pemba.

the reason being i got caught up in the soccer and rugby today.. For the first time in my life i was roaring and shouting on England to win and when they scored the last try I was jumping off the couch!! Being an Irish man, I consistently shout for any team playing England!! Nothing Personal mind as I have many english friends, but anything to shut the English media up and especially that brian moore commentator on the BBC... And to make things better it was an Irish man, young Gerraghty who made all the difference when he came on for England.. He is a player in the mold of Ronan O Gara, who is willing to back himself and try anything, and brought the rest of the back line into play with his superb passing.

This now means that Ireland have to beat Italy by 4 points more than France beat Scotland next week to secure the six nations championship.. What a mouth watering day in prospect next Saturday and it being the St Patricks day to boot, its going to be a cracker of a match and a sesssion!

I hope people listened to the betdaq preview. I listened last night and the one i take out of it for further inspection is saint saire in the grand annual. I am also going to back hardy eustace. they mentioned that this could be a very close finish with the best jumper maybe prevailing in the end. Hardy is the most accomplished jumper next to brave inca. Detroit city has made mistakes in his jumping this year and plus the fact that 5 yr olds have a terrible record in this race, and hardy has beaten brave inca this year in the AIG hurlde in leopardstown, then it is all set up for him to win. I have also read other reviews of cheltenham preview nights down the country where dessie hughes was present and he said that he has never been in better condition and is very hopeful.

I shall be running through the form for every race of the festival here so dont forget to look back here every night starting Monday night.

Betdaq sponsored cheltenham preview night

Check out this

http://www.irish-racing.com/cheltenham2007.htm

The Betdaq Cheltenham Preview Night Listen to probably the finest panel lined up throughout the Cheltenham Preview season. The Betdaq Cheltenham Preview Night was recorded at the Marriott Hotel, London on Thurday night, and is now available to download and listen to. The panel members of Ted Walsh, John Francome, Paul Nicholls, Tony McCoy, Russel Wiseman and Matt Williams give their considered opinions on their best hopes for the Cheltenham Festival with Mark Pougatch.

SATURDAY

I have two vlaue bets for today, but i dont think i will get the odds i want.

First one is Haut De Game in the 3.55 in Ayr. I m looking for 4/1 as its a tight race and each one of the runners has some claims for winning this. Im a bit worried about the top weight he is carrying so will have to get value here. he performs well in small fields and like the course but the top weight in the muck might mean he could get caught on the run in. ( I think i may have talked myself out of this bet!! - this is why it is good to write down why you want to back a horse!!)

Next one is the 5.20 in chepstow, pass me a dime. Im looking for 15/2 here but unlikey to get it. I may keep an eye on the in running betting to see if i can get value there.

My banker lay of the day is in the 4.55 in chepstow - Petite Margot. As always my criteria has been met. he is up in class and there are three mor ein the betting who are dropping in class and have good decent form.

Friday

2 bets for tomorrow.

Ayr 2.00 Zaffran Lady & 4.10 Frankie figg if greater than 9/2.


Lingfiled 4.20 Blythe spirit is a lay for me. up in class and in with better company. two speed horses in the race with decent for plus fisio who is well able to win this as well.

ON A ROLL

3 from three the past 2 days. Maybe i could be running into the right type of form with Cheltenham around the corner..... who knows!!

Winner Alright At last

it feels like it was a long time coming, but come it did. our back selection won and good value tow and out lay lost at very short odds.

No back bets for thursday, but im going to lay Artic Bear in the 2.55 in Thurles if i an get it under 4/1. This will be a very tough race to win and 7/2 the forecast price is way too short.

Wednesday

Well, the lay wasnt matched yesterday so no profit.

One back bet tomorrow in catterick 2.2o Beamish Prince. Great value at 8/1. Trainer hasn't a great strike rate, but is running into some bit of form the past two weeks. The horse is way classier than these horses in this seller and hopefully the return to hurdles where it posted its two wins will bring about the turn in form needed to win. Ground an distance will suit.

One lay tomorrow, Ling 5.05 Rule for Ever. a very competitive race and at 5/2 is under value for this horse stepping up in class and in a race loaded with speedy sorts.


Also congrats to Infactah.com for winning best group blog at the Irish blog awards over the weekend. A thoroughly deserved award for all involved.

hupougherdat

I have not disappeared. i had one bet teo weeks ago and it lost, bit i have been keeping an eye out since but nothing definite jumps off the pages. I also tried a bot of trading and made a return of 5% on investment over the weekend so it is doable.

I will be laying starcross Maid in the 4.10 in southwell if the odds come into 4/1. Days off track and looks outclassed so a definite lay if value odds are received. Trainer aint so hot either.

Cheltenham is only 2 weeks away, so I will be doing a full review for that....

Saturday

A qucik post today. i'll only be backing one and that is Parrain in the 3.45 novice hurdle in kempton. its a two horse race so get on at 2/1 or better..

Haydock

Well Iffy was a bit iffy to say the least. He should have placed but was held up by jockey in 5th, trying to stave of any rise in the weights. Trainer may not be in a good vain of form at the moment.

Haydock 3.10 Ebony light - Perfect conditions today. Trainer in unreal form and very promising jockey on board. good value at 11/4.

Wednesday Value at Ludlow

Ludlow 4.00 looks like a very good race and may produce a nice winner in te shape of the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cheltenham entry Iffy. Thankfully he hasnt been tipped up by the racing post so we might get some decent value on this selection. currently reading at 8/1.

This horse ran a creditbale third behind champion hurdle hopeful Afsoun. He is dropping in class and has all conditions to suit. He runs well after break and will be suited by course, with its log run in. The fav looks harshly treated for his easy win in a weak cls 4 maiden .2nd Fav Sunday city looks the biggest danger.Also dropping in class and has conditions to suit. im siding with Iffy as he has the better connections, but it is pretty close.

Good Result

Back to winning ways yesterday when Marcel duly obliged at 5/2.
Today i will be dutching South O the border and Helens Wood in the 4.30 in Fontwell. the only other danger in this race is scarlet mix but im ruling this horse out due to its bad run of results on soft ground. if the ground was good or even good to soft , i would back this horse.
I think that Helenswood may win today but i cant separate the two today but then again he only won on Leicster which is a stiff track, where as he came nowhere in Lingfield which is tight like today, but he could be finding his feet now in handicap company.. anyways dutching the two will give a 50% return in investment. South of the border is taking a drop in class in my opinion and is still value at 6/4

Saturday

Apologies for lack in posting but i took a mini break from racing over the past 3 days.

Marcel is running in the 4.10 in ascot.
im prefering this horse to misty dancer for 2 reasons. One Marcel is dropping in class and two misty dancer looks like he prefers tighter tracks. Also 3/1 is value

Friday Kempton

I had shortlisted 6 races t look at today but only one stands out and that is haunted house in the 3.10.

Sparse

Yes, racing has been sparse these last few days. i had a few bets picked out for wed but no joy as bothe NH meets in England called off. I presume taunton will be called off tomorrow as well as they are expecting snow. It s pity as i really fancy River Tigris in the 4.50. This horse ran a blinder last time out in first time blinkers on the same underfoot conditions as forecasted for tomorrow and also the same distance. Also with mccoy getting a second crack of the whip at this horse i thing that 9/2 is great value if you can get it. The main reason im going for this than the favourite is the fact that i think the fav is going up in clas while river tigris is defintely comin into a weaker race and he canbe progresive with the head gear on. As already stated, headgear has been proven to be most effective the second time been worn (as hors eis getting used to the blinded feeling)

Mt other two bets are in Southwell.
1.30 Grange Lili
3.30 Waterside

My main reason for this is the performance of their respective last races. Grange lili won after been obstructed and is gamely battler.. all is good for southwell where a battler can make up that extra half yard on a slower surface. He is very close to getting reeled in my the handicapper but is worth another go. at 5/2 its very near value. trainer has an outstanding record here and that tips the scale in favour of this selection in a small sized field.

Waterside is in brilliant form. Moore has teamed up with Callan today to tackle the extra furlong on the inform gelding. again the shiny price seems value and he will appreciate the extra furlong on this energy sapping fibre sand course.

Monday

No racing in ireland on monday. I will have 4 bets in Wolves tomorrow if i can get matched at decent prices. they are wahoo sam, canadian danehill, global traffic, all max bets and dapple dawn as a single bet. Im pretty confident about all 4, but not too happy about the prices i thought i d get on betfair.

Corner turned and new method

Today was a decent day for me. i had 5 bets and 4 won. Ok the odds were miserable but i had enough research put in to warrant a very confident days betting ahead of me if i stuck to my guns. My betting pattern consisted of a few max bets and and few singles.

I have spent the past week and weekend putting all my result in a spreadsheet and analysing every one of them. My Irish selections have been going ok for me, but i wont get rich quick with the lack of racing and the small number of suitable races.

Therefore i have developed a method which will narrow down selections for me in England.
I now have a process whereby i have 3 spreadsheets. One is to narrow down the selections for a particular day by using a certain method. This method gives me a list of horses which satisfy the following criteria

1. Horse can handle the going and distance
2. Trainer has a decent record at the course
3. Jockey has a decent record at the course
4. Trainer is in form
5. Horse has realistic chance of being in the frame

The second spreadsheet is where i run the above selections through a set of very professionally put together ratings i subscribe to and which i highly respect and have used for the past number of years. This highlights horses which are totally outclassed or not and provides the next filter.
i then look at the refined list and i look in depth at each selection to ensure the following

1. Is it suited to the course
2. Analyse recent form to see if the horse is really in/out of form or if it is a pattern horse - one who needs exact conditions to win -
3. Again look to see if it will be outclassed or not
4. Look at final indicators, field size, head gear, performance under certain weight, trainer comments, RP comments

the third and final spreadsheet is the final selections list that has passed all the criteria and i have each marked as either a max bet or a single bet. A max bet is 2.5 times the single bet. In monetary terms, that's 20 for a single and 50 for a max.

Im pretty confident that this will be profitable for the national hunt season. so far so good

Quick note

Aftertiming a bit today. i backed detroit city earlier to give me 21 euro proift and im placing this on fredy murphys horse, Negus De Beaumont in the 3 pm in Wetherby. looks a progessive horse and track will definitely suit. im annoyed i didnt take this at 7' as its now tradinng at 5's .

quiet

No views today..

Leopardstown

I spent part of the day in leopardstown. A pretty cold day but made all the better by the fact that i was too fuzzy headed from the night before to drive so i walked over t0 the course( I live pretty near) and on the way a taxi driver stopped and gave me and my friend free tickets to the reserved enclosure. A nice way to start the day.. I thought my luck was in . These were my planned bets for the day

1.50 Schindlers Hunt, Win 1st 8/13
2.20 Macs Flamingo, EW 9/1 4th
2.50 Brave Inca, Win 11/8 2nd
3.25 Kazal, Win 11/4 1st


However i ended up doing this due to ill advice from a respected friend/source of mine.

1.50 Vintage Treasure E/W - 12/1 UP - 40
2.20 Macs Flamingo E/W - 9/1 4th -40
2.50 Brave Inca Win - 11/8 2nd -50
3.25 Kazal Win - 11/4 1st ( i backed at 7/2) +175

I ended the day €35 up.

the whole reason i changed my mind on Schindler's Hunt was the fact that the odds available were 8/11 so i thought id better look for value and when my mate told me he had backed Vintage treasure and backed him ante post for the arkle i said what the heck, lets go with it.

If i had backed Schindlers hunt i would have been 115 up, so a costly mistake on my part.

Anyways a good day out was had. I didn't stay for the last 2 races as the cold was getting to me and i didn't fancy anything. Also the headache from the night before was not dissipating (even after a few cures!)

thursday Gowran

The grade 3 hurdle in gowran park looks like a one horse race. The winner will be Celestial Wave. loves the ground and distance, good jockey on board, up and coming trainer who thinks horse is a 'superstar' and who are we to doubt! odds are pretty skinny, but i cannot see this horse beaten. 2 points win on this if i get the better side of evens

The 3.25 novice chase looks exciting. its between the tp three in the market but my vote goes to Toofarback, because ofo the form lines and i think he is dropping in class for this race. 11/4 also looks like good value to me. A two point bet here also .

As for the Thyestes, its very tough this year.Theres a lot of hype around Kitsi and he also has some good form lines but its hard to call.

Thurles Tuesday!

Same bets as last week except no our ben this time.

Thurles 1,45. Cleini is favourite as he is the class horse in the race by a long shot. However he has only won on good and never tried at today's distance. Hopefully there will be a few non runners tomorrow as he seems to prefer big field sizes. Pontium is the value bet. 8/1 seems very good value for a horse who is one of the only ones to have won at this distance and also a course winner. I'm going to have a point each way on this one.

Gazza's girl in the 3.15 should outclass the rest so 1 point win here if i can get 2/1. his jumping is suspect though so defo need some value here before i bet.

Saturday in Naas

Hi just a quick post. i have two selections today in naas which ireally fancy. As you know naas is one the stiffest tracks in ireland with its 4 furlong uphill finish, there fore im going for horses today who have ither won here or have won on something similiar.

2.15 Chelsea Harbour - I should have backed this last time out in Naas, but didnt and the win that day reprrsents he can handle the course and looks progressive. Basically this is a value each way bet. 10/1.

2.45 Sophist - didnt run at all in last race. this horse has class compare to others in this race. his price is tumbling but i think he has all the conditions in his favour roday. He has won t fairy house which has a three furlong slight uphill run in so hopefully thats a good guide that he has stamina and of course loves the muck. Trainer has small stable and this is one of his stars. Back to win. currently trading at 4.2.

I cashed for the first time at a live poker tournament last night which was very nice, so i intend to keep up the poker again for a while longer

Thurles thursday

Thurles 1,45. Cleini is favourite as he is the class horse in the race by a long shot. However he has only won on good and never tried at today's distance. Hopefully there will be a few non runners tomorrow as he seems to prefer big field sizes. Pontium is the value bet. 8/1 seems very good value for a horse who is one of the only ones to have won at this distance and also a course winner. I'm going to have a point each way on this one.

I'm going to have half a point each way on our Ben in the grade 2 chase. looks in good form and if he can have a clear round he will come close to forget the past.

Gazza's girl in the 3.15 should outclass the rest so 1 point win here if i can get 2/1.

Wednesday 17 Jan 2006

No bet on tuesday as no value. None for tomorrow either. The whisperer looks like a banker but odds are too low at 1.55.

16 Jan 2006

A good winner today. It returned at 9/4 which was very good odds for a 2 horse race in my opinion.

Tomorrow Superrollercoaster is running in the 3.20 at Folkstone. I will back if i can get 7/2. Radcliffe may be a danger in this race as williams is in unreal form and had a tremendous record at folkstone over fences. Reason i will not back though is horses record in race sizes bigger than 6.

Monday

No bets today horseracing wise. I did lay hearts and regina using a seperate account.

Tomorrow i have a fancy for Santando in the 1.30 in plumpton. 2/1 seems fair in a two horse race. Wingman is too short at 11/10.

Saturday

You sir looks the one to beat in the first in Punchestown. Forget the past is the only danger, but he has been delayed coming back this year so somethings not right with him. This hurdle race looks like a tester to him to see how he is. I m not betting here until i see the odds tomorrow. 6/4 or better probably for You Sir.

kempton 1.30 - prince ary > 6/4.
2.10 barber shop
2.45 Ferimon E/W

Wetherby 1.15 Canada street

maybe more tomorrow. too tired now...

friday

I had one bet today, Elgar in the handicap chase in huntington. I did not post the selction as i really didnt think i would bet my bet matched. it was trading at 3.5 and i left an order for 4. anyways he won and returned at 4/1. I couldnt belive he returned at such a price. That means my bank is at 360 now.

Result

Bad call today, but not too cut up about it. I ddnt think it would get matched but it did at 3.10. I should really have dutched holy tree and fred benefits or maybe not betat all as the winner wasnt really jumping out the page at me.

Limerick

The first race in Limerick is aNovice Hurdle. Only three really in this unles some major mishap. They are all very close and a case can be made for all the first tree in the market. Holy tree in dropping in class but has a severe case of seconditis at the moment and i belive he would prefer a flatter track. Farmer jack looks like he will go close but his trainer record of 0/18 over hurdles doesnt instil confidence and triner form not great. Im siding with Freds Benefit. He is taking a step up in class but performed well in limerick the last day and did nearly lose the jockey at he last so would have probably won by more only for that. Also look at mullins record in limerick 42% and with ruby on board gets the nodd in what could be a great finish. I may only back though if i get 3.10 or better.

Havent time to look at British races.

Soccer

I had no racing bets today but i did back Aberdeen and Dunfermline to be greater than 2.5 goals. Made 20 quid. I also did a small trade on the Getaffe Valencia game in the under 2.5 goal market to make 4 quid. Bank slowly but surely back in profit! €324!

Non runners

My two short listed horses were non runners today. I looked over Wincanton races but nothing clear stands out so no bets for wednesday.

9 Jan 2007

3.05 sedgefield 27 Furlong Heavy

The following i am discounted
Wilie the fish - distance and going
Amber light - form and going
Nectar de Guye - Seconditis and better mud lovers in the race
Its definite - top weight on heavy ground for good ground horse
Uneven Line - Distance - if race was 3 furlong shorter this would be ideal.
Sailor a Hoy - Distance and form

This leaves 2 for the shortlist
Jballingall - Bottom weight, course and distance winner on heavy ground. Likes a test of stamina, trainer has 1/2 record here over chase jumps and jockey has high strike rate for trainer. Has won in Hexham and sedgefield, both of which are stiff tracks.Trainer had a 100/1 second place during the week, so hopefully its a sigh he is in good form. came 3rd in a 2 mile race last time out so current form is good.

Cinnamon Line - likes heavy going and in good form. Small time Trainer has had 1 win and 2 places with big prices in the last 2 weeks. however he has not won on a recognised stiff track and not with second top weight of 11 10 on his back.

Therefore Jballinggall to win.

08 Jan 2007

Well no racing in ireland tomorrow so im justr gave a quick look over the non handicap and handicap chase races in Britain. One stands out as a pretty decent value bet. Tauton 2.30 Marcel. Currently trading at 3.95 in a 4 horse race. Positives for Marcel is that he likes small fields, espically over chase jumps, likes tight tracks, likes going, distance, jockey has 1/2 strike rate with horse, jockey has 40% strike rate for david pipe over chases, and pipes stable in terrific form. likes season, days since last run and form seems ok when in small fields. Negative is his jumping. However with the small field and McCoy on board this should help matters. Aslo hoping that Spidam blows up due to first race back after a year off.

Resumption!

Ok, the itch is back again. Today was the first day i looked at the racing post in a while. I had three bets. i made 67.13 profit. All bets were in Naas. Kazal in the 2.00 at 11/4 came first (20 euro bet) in the competitive Novice hurdle. I then backed the favourite in the handicap chase in the next, Dead Sound and also backed charlie swans charge on the place market, Royal Man. the favourite came now where and im disappointed i baced it because on closer iunspection, chelsea harbout was the obvious choice to win this race. Royal Man battled back gamely to reclaim third spot and ensure i made a profit on this race of 15 euro. I aso started trading onthe man utd - aston villa game in the under - overs market and i made 2 euros from that. i can see myself starting to trade on the football a lot more. More to come on that in a few weeks.

Anyway i am changing my strategy. I have been trying to cover every race type in ireland and britain so im going to concentrate on non handicap national hunt races and small field handicap chases in Ireland. I will still have a few bets in britain but only when i see a stand out selection. the reason i have narrowed down my racing selection to this is simple. these are my more profitable areas.

burn out

Please excuse the lack of posting over the festive season. after 5 years of looking at the racing post every day i believe i have suffered burn out! So im taking a small break until i get the itch again!

back soon